DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a ridge over eastern Greenland. This is producing mild/cool weather in western and central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western and central U.S. A ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough over southeast Canada and the northwest atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure extend from northeast Mexico to the southeast U.S.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days, fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A blocking ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland and the polar vortex over central and eastern Canada. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. A trough over the southwest U.S. A ridge over the southeast U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic. This will be a wet pattern for much of the central U.S. with disturbances moving out of the trough in the southwest U.S. moving along the boundary zone between cold air to the north and warm air to the south and into gulf moisture supplied by the ridge in the southeast. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see mostly below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal. The Delta states will see above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...97 AT ALICE TX

LOW TUE...12 AT PIKES PEAK SUMMIT CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM

TUESDAY…SPRINGFIELD MO 3.89 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement during the outlook period. I favor a compromise between the models Wednesday.

The U.S. model brings a significant portion of the western U.S. trough eastward across the central Plains, the western Midwest and the Great Lakes region during the early and middle part of the period. This trough eventually merges with and intensifies the north Canada trough while also bringing it south and a little east during the period. The mean map from Wednesday's U.S. model at eight to 10 days shows this strong trough over Ontario and Quebec Canada. The southeast U.S. ridge weakens and the mean western U.S. trough weakens during the middle to late part of the period. This might suggest that after one more major rain producer for the central Plains, west Midwest and the northern east Midwest regions early in the outlook period the pattern may relax somewhat. However, based on recent history it is unlikely to stay dry for long, if at all. It does appear likely, however, that the Canadian Prairies and the northern portion of the Northern Plains region will be drier and somewhat colder during the six- to 10-day period.

The European model is somewhat stronger with the southeast U.S. ridge early in the period, and as a result the western trough is slower to advance eastward and somewhat further to the north when it does. The model also leaves behind a significant portion of the western trough over the Rockies, which implies a continued more active rainfall pattern at least over the central Plains region and the western Midwest. The model shows the mean Canada trough at eight to 10 days a little weaker and a little further north than the U.S. model but similar in nature over Ontario and Quebec. This model also implies it will be drier in the Canadian Prairies region but not as cold. It is also not quite as dry in the northern portion of the Northern Plains region.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS: Wet weather disrupts and delays spring wheat and corn planting. Some acreage may not get planted. Lower temperatures slow germination and early development. Snow in western South Dakota increases stress to livestock.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Excessive rainfall continues to disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting. Corn planting progress is the lowest on record for this date. Some corn acreage will likely not get planted as there is no end to the wet pattern in sight, especially over the western Midwest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Wet weather will increase disease pressure on developing wheat. Excessive rains and damaging hail and winds may mean losses to wheat, especially in hardest hit areas of Oklahoma where wheat is maturing. Rain delays and disrupts planting of corn-soybean-sorghum.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Scattered showers and thunderstorms during last weekend. The region should be somewhat drier and hotter during the balance of this week. There were delays to planting early this week with conditions improving later in the week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Drier conditions continue to allow for planting through northwest and central areas this week while areas closer to the U.S. border and in the Manitoba area may see rain slowing progress during the week. Lower temperatures will slow germination and emergence of earlier planted crops and could burn back any already emerged plants.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Key growing areas in New South Wales and southern Queensland look to continue dry during the next 10 days. Temperatures will be above normal for five days and then they will be lower. Soil moisture will continue to diminish and stress to early developing wheat will increase.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/WHEAT): No significant concerns for filling and maturing second crop corn in Mato Grosso and Goias. Soil moisture supports filling crops. Warm/dry weather favors maturing crops. Rain in Parana and showers and cool conditions into MGDS may, for a time, be somewhat unfavorable for maturing corn, but in general, should favor the filling crop.

NORTH CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Near general moderate-to-heavy rain is forecast for the weekend period and Monday. This will provide adequate to surplus soil moisture in key growing areas for corn and soybeans, but it will also delay and halt planting of these crops.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): The North China Plain remains caught between the heavy rain to its north and the building Monsoon rainfall to the south. This leads to a period of drier, sometimes hotter, weather. Filling wheat and maturing rapeseed have adequate soil moisture and irrigation so there is little concern for these crops. Drier weather favors the planting effort for corn, soybeans, rice and cotton but also depletes available soil moisture.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Belarus and western Ukraine have been fairly wet recently, likely slowing spring fieldwork. South and East Ukraine have been drier. Showers and rain should move into eastern Ukraine during the next five to seven days. Conditions are favorable for winter wheat. There is some delay to planting summer crops, although key growing areas for corn and sunflower are in areas that have not been too wet recently.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER): A recent increase in rain activity through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area but also delays seasonal fieldwork. Northeast areas had recently been drier, but during last week this area also had needed rain.

INDIA: As is typical for May, the region is hot to very hot at this time, ahead of the developing Monsoon flow. Pre-monsoon showers have occurred at times. The Monsoon appears to be developing over the Indian Ocean south of India and in the southeast to south-central areas of the Bay of Bengal.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest Corn, Soybean and Winter Wheat Highlights

West: Strong winds with moderate-to-heavy rain during the past 24 hours. Rainfall averaging 0.50 to 1.50 inches and locally heavier possible. Temperatures averaged well below normal Tuesday.

East: Strong winds, moderate-to-heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms through Illinois, Wisconsin and western Indiana Tuesday or overnight. It will be drier through the eastern areas Tuesday, showers or light rain may reach these areas early Wednesday. Temperatures averaged below normal in the north and central areas, and near normal in the south.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Windy with lingering light rain northwest areas Wednesday. A few thundershowers Wednesday night mainly northern Missouri, possibly southeast Iowa. Moderate-to-heavy showers locally and thundershowers redevelop in west and north areas later Thursday or Thursday night and move through east and south locations during Friday. Temperatures average below normal west and near normal east Wednesday, near to below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Thursday, above normal Friday.

Episodes of showers and thundershowers favoring southern Nebraska, southern Iowa and Missouri Saturday and Sunday. Showers, thundershowers and rain most of the region during Monday. Rainfall totals should be heavy most areas, especially from northern Iowa southward. Temperatures average above normal Saturday, near normal north and above normal central and south Sunday, near to below normal north and northwest areas Monday.

East: Light showers favor eastern and southern areas Wednesday. Light-to-moderate showers will favor western and northern areas tonight. A few light showers with locally heavier during Thursday. Light-to-moderate showers mainly northern Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan during Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal Wednesday, above normal south and central areas and near normal north Thursday and Friday.

Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday through Monday. Rainfall moderate to locally heavy will mostly likely impact north and central Illinois, north and central Indiana, north and central Ohio. Areas south and north of these areas may see somewhat less activity. Temperatures above to well above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6 -10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal south and east and near to below normal northwest early in the period, mostly near to slightly below normal late in the period. Rainfall should average above normal west and northeast, near to below normal southeast.

Northwest Corn, Soybean and Spring Wheat Highlights

Moderate-to-heavy rain and strong winds through South Dakota, southern and eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota...except heavy snow has been reported in the higher elevations of southwest South Dakota. A little light precipitation in Montana. Temperatures averaged below normal Tuesday.

Northern Plains Corn, Soybeans and Spring Wheat Forecast...

Light-to-moderate rain and wind will linger through southern and eastern areas Wednesday. Drier early Thursday. Rain redevelops through central and east areas later Thursday or during Thursday night and Friday. Rainfall moderate during this period. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

It will be mostly dry Saturday. Light showers favoring southern and western areas Sunday and Monday. Heavier showers or rain and thundershowers Tuesday, favoring west and south areas. Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday through Tuesday.

6 -10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to above normal south, near to below normal north.

Midwest Wheat and Livestock Highlights...

There was moderate-to-heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms through southern Nebraska, north and east Kansas and east Oklahoma Tuesday or last night. Strong winds were reported. Severe weather including hail, high wind gusts and tornados mainly central and east Kansas Tuesday. Light-to-moderate precipitation in eastern Colorado with little through the southwest areas Tuesday. There was snow in the higher elevations of Colorado but also in the Nebraska panhandle and southeast Wyoming. Temperatures below to well below normal through the north and central areas, and below normal south.

Central/Southern Plains Wheat and Livestock Forecast...

Windy Wednesday with afternoon or evening thundershowers forming in east-central and southeast areas. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers will favor the southwest, central and northeast areas Thursday and Friday. Temperatures average below normal north and west and near normal southeast Wednesday, below normal north and west and near to above normal southeast Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Saturday through Monday will tend to favor Nebraska and Kansas but may also occur in northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. There will be isolated thundershower activity elsewhere in Oklahoma and north Texas and light showers in east Colorado. Temperatures average near to above normal.

6 -10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period, averaging about near to below normal west and near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to above normal through north and central areas, near to below normal south.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

Joel Burgio