DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features ridging from eastern Alaska across northwest and north-central Canada. A weak trough over northeast Canada and some ridging over Greenland. A trough is observed across most of central Canada to the south of this ridging. This is producing mild/cool temperatures in western Canada, variable temperatures in central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the Rockies and Plains extending into western portions of the Midwest. A trough off the east coast of the U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic The center of subtropical high pressure is located along the southwest coast of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair-good agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada extending up towards the pole. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and some ridging over Greenland. This will produce cool/cold temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and southwest atlantic and a trough in the northwest atlantic.This will be a wet pattern for much of the central U.S. with disturbances moving in from the trough in the west and gulf moisture supplied by the ridge in the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above normal. The northern plains will see below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east during the next 5 days, near to above normal in all areas days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...104 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...18 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ORLANDO FL 1.27 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. This is a strong split jet stream pattern. The northern branch of the jet stream features an upper level ridge over Alaska, northwest Canada and the Arctic Circle and a strong trough centered just north of Hudson Bay Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a broad trough over the western US and a building ridge over the east. Disturbances associated with the western trough dip southward as they come through the western US and then track east-northeast and then northeast as they move towards the eastern US ridge. This storm track will send yet another strong low from the southwest plains through the western Midwest, the Great Lakes region and into Ontario Canada early in the 6-10 day period. The cold front associated with this low will move through the plains, the central Midwest and the western Delta before weakening as it gets closer to the eastern US ridge. Gulf moisture will flow northward into the cold front due to the clockwise flow around the eastern Ridge. This will be another major rain event for the eastern plains and at least the western Midwest, possibly also including the central Midwest, the central plains and parts of the northern plains as well. The stronger southeast to east-central US ridge likely means that temperatures in the east and south Midwest and Delta that might cool some early in the period would turn much warmer again later in the period. The temperature pattern over the western and northern plains and the northwest Midwest is somewhat more uncertain. The European model is significantly colder than the US model in these areas, however even the US model trends towards below normal readings for these locations.

The temperature and rainfall pattern over the Canadian Prairies is somewhat uncertain. The ridge west and trough east pattern that is indicated in Canada during the outlook period would be cold and dry for the area during the winter period. However as daylight increases significantly during May and June this type of pattern is less cold for that area. Also, the storm track in the US is being forced north and west due to the building eastern US ridge. It is not clear whether this will be enough to send the western Midwest rains northward into the Prairies region...at least not at this time.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS: Warmer temperatures continue for another day or two. Showers increase beginning tomorrow and especially Friday. The window for planting appears to be closing. The region looks to become wet and then much cooler again during the weekend and Monday. This will again delay and disrupt field work in the region.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): A turn to much warmer to somewhat hot temperatures during the next couple of days will help to dry out fields and improve planting conditions in fields that are not extremely wet or flooded. Rain and thunderstorms return to the western and northeastern areas at the end of this week and continue early next week. Extreme rains may occur within these areas during this period causing further problems which will include additional severe flooding. Some fields in the east-central and southeast Midwest may continue to show improvement as rain will be slower to reach these areas and warmer temperatures will last longer.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): A drier, warmer trend will help improve conditions for seasonal field work during the next 5 to 7 days..possibly longer if the southeast US ridge does make it into this area during the 8-10 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEAN/SORGHUM/LIVESTOCK): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing winter wheat throughout the southern plains. A turn to warmer weather during the next 2-3 days with less rainfall will favor wheat. Scattered thunderstorms redevelop in the area during the weekend and again early next week. Mostly favorable conditions and weather for spring planting for the next 2-3 days. After that rain and thunderstorms may cause planting delays, especially through central and east areas.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT/CANOLA): Precipitation favoring north-central and east areas today, 0.10-0.50 inch. Precipitation favoring southwest, 0.10-0.50 inch, Friday into Saturday. A variable temperature pattern. Slow improvement in planting conditions in the region. The 6-10 day period is somewhat uncertain.

It continues to look wetter over the northern plains of the US but it is not clear whether or not this precipitation makes it into the Prairies region. If it does it would likely favor south to east areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): The best chance for needed rain to occur looks to be over south-central and southeast Australia during the next 10 days. This might include the eastern most areas of Western Australia's wheat belt. It should including wheat growing areas of South Australia and Victoria. Areas to the east and north look to be drier and hotter. Areas to the west look to be drier but cooler.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Key growing areas for second crop corn are likely to trend drier during the next 10 days, with a variable temperature pattern. Not unusual for this time of the year. Soil moisture should support filling crops.

Warmer, drier weather favors maturing crops at times during the period.

Drier weather in southern Brazil during the short range period should help improve conditions for the delayed soybean harvest. Rain is expected to return to the area early next week.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Dry weather into Friday will favor seasonal field work, including harvesting summer crops and planting winter wheat. Light rain during the weekend does not look to concerning. Heavier rains may occur in the Cordoba, Santa Fe area early next week.

CHINA (SOYBEANS/CORN): Key growing areas for corn and soybeans in northeast China have seen warm to hot temperatures and light to moderate showers during the past 72 hours. Improving conditions for planting and early development. The weather pattern features more rain and a variable temperature pattern during the next 5 to 7 days. Favorable conditions for planting and early development, weather permitting.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Mostly favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and rapeseed at this time due to April rain and adequate irrigation supplies, although recent dryness is leading to increasing needs for irrigation in wheat areas. Mostly favorable conditions for planting summer crops in the area... including corn, soybeans, groundnuts, rice and cotton.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Generous winter and sring rains have allowed for favorable conditions for winter wheat at this time. Soil moisture for early development of summer crops should be favorable. The region looks to be warmer during this week, drier in the east and somewhat wetter in the west during this time. Rain may return to eastern areas next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT AND RAPESEED, CORN, SUNFLOWER): A recent increase in rain activity through east-central and southeast Europe will improve conditions for winter wheat after winter dryness. Rain helps recharge soil moisture for planting summer crops in the area but it may also mean delays to seasonal fieldwork.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light showers with locally heavier favoring northwest, central and southeast areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal in the west and below normal east yesterday.

East: Light to locally moderate showers mainly overnight from west-central through southern Illinois. Temperatures averaged below normal, well below normal through eastern areas.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today. A few showers tonight favoring northeast areas. Light to locally moderate showers favoring central and northern Iowa during Thursday or Thursday night. Moderate showers and thundershowers favoring northern and western areas Friday and Friday night. Temperatures average above normal west and near normal east today, above to well above normal Thursday, near to below normal north and above to well above normal central and south Friday. The high temperatures Thursday should range from 81 to 93F, 88-93F from central Iowa westward into eastern Nebraska.

Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms, 0.75 to 2.00 inches and locally heavier, Saturday into Sunday. A second moderate or heavy rain event is possible late Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures below normal north and above normal central and south Saturday, below normal north and west and above normal southeast Sunday and Monday.

East: Light rain or showers may linger in southern Illinois, southwest Indiana and western Kentucky this morning, drier this afternoon. Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning from northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin east-southeast to central and southern Ohio. Drier elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near normal north and west and below normal southeast today, above normal Thursday, near to above normal north and above to well above normal central and south Friday. Highs reach the low 80s through west and south areas Thursday, low to upper 80s central and south during Friday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring west and north Illinois and Wisconsin during Saturday or more likely Saturday night. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers favoring eastern and southeast areas Sunday or Sunday night. Mostly dry or with only a few light showers during Monday. Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms favoring western and central areas Monday night or during Tuesday and Tuesday night. Temperatures average near to below normal north and above normal central and south Saturday, near normal north and above normal central and south Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest. Rainfall should average near to above normal west and northeast, near to below normal southeast.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers favoring western areas yesterday or overnight last night. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday. Highs mostly 75 to 80F.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Light rain or showers move through eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota late today or during tonight. Light to locally moderate showers mainly in Montana and possibly western South Dakota during Thursday. Light to moderate showers and rain favoring western and southern areas Friday or Friday night. Temperatures average above to well above normal today, near to below normal north and above normal south Thursday, below normal Friday.

Episodes of moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers from southern North Dakota through South Dakota Saturday through Monday. Episodes of light rain or drizzle elsewhere in the region during this time, except there is a chance that the eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota area may see some heavier rain at some point during this period. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this period, possibly well below normal central and west areas. Precipitation should average above normal south and east areas, near to below normal northwest.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Dry or with only a few light showers yesterday or last night. Temperatures averaged near normal south, above normal central and north. Highs low 80s to low 90s.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry or with only isolated showers today through the daytime hours of Friday. A few thundershowers Friday night favoring Nebraska and also west Texas to southwest Oklahoma. Temperatues average above to well above normal through north, central and southwest areas, near normal through the southeast. Highs Thursday likely range from 85 to 95F, hottest north-central through west-central locations.

Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring south-central and east areas during Saturday. Drier Sunday. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring central and east areas Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures average near normal west and south and above normal otherwise Saturday, near to below normal north and west and near normal southeast Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Rainfall should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

Joel Burgio