Commodities Market Impact Weather

Historic Slow Planting

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
Connect with Bryce:

OMAHA (DTN) -- Periods of rain to keep planting at a history-challenging slow pace, and more favorable conditions for South America row crops, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Tuesday.

CHRONIC PLANTING DELAYS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very warm to somewhat hot conditions in the Midwest during the next few days. The heat will help to dry out fields for some planting progress. However, progress is at history-challenging low values for corn due to very wet and cool conditions during this spring season. U.S. corn planting is only 30% complete, the slowest since 2013 and the fourth-slowest in USDA records dating to 1982. Rain and thunderstorms return to the western and northeastern areas at the end of this week, which will cause further problems. Some fields in the east-central and southeast Midwest may continue to show improvement, as rain will be slower to reach these areas and warmer weather will last longer.

BRIEF DRIER NORTHERN PLAINS TREND

In the Northern Plains, a slight round of planting progress may occur during the midweek time frame due to higher temperatures and little rainfall. However, the pattern turns wetter by the end of this week, along with temperatures trending much cooler. This will again delay and disrupt fieldwork in the region.

AMPLE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

Adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing winter wheat is a notable feature across the Southern Plains. A turn to warmer weather during the next few days with less rainfall will favor wheat. Scattered thunderstorms may redevelop in the east and south areas at the end of this week.

WARMER AND DRIER FOR DELTA

The Delta has a drier and warmer pattern in store through the next week, and possibly longer due to the formation of a strong standing area of high pressure for the southeastern U.S.

UNCERTAIN PRAIRIES RAIN CHANCE

In the Canadian Prairies, rain chances are uncertain. Some moisture in the next week over the U.S. Northern Plains may find its way into the southern and eastern sectors of the Prairies.

VARIABLE BRAZIL TRENDS

Across Brazil, major growing areas for second crop (safrinha) corn are likely to trend drier during the next 10 days, with a variable temperature pattern. Soil moisture should support filling crops, while dry conditions will favor harvest. Southern Brazil has seen some heavy rainfall with flooding in the past week. There has been some disruption to soybean harvest, but not enough to notably affect crop size.

DRY FOR ARGENTINA HARVEST

In Argentina, drier conditions continue this week after periods of moderate-to-heavy rain in southern areas last week. The drier pattern will favor harvest.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA CONDITIONS

Russia and Ukraine soil moisture for early development of summer crops should be quite favorable. The region looks to be warmer during this week, drier in the east and somewhat wetter in the west during this time.

IMPROVED EUROPE CONDITIONS

Increased precipitation over the past several months is leading to much larger crop prospects in Europe. The Germany wheat crop is projected to increase by almost 20% over last year's drought-affected production, according to a farm cooperative assessment.

SCATTERED AUSTRALIA RAIN

Across Australia, the best chance for needed rain to occur looks to be over south-central and southeast Australia during the next 10 days. This might include the easternmost areas of Western Australia's wheat belt. It should including wheat growing areas of South Australia and Victoria.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
Connect with Bryce: