Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A midweek storm expected to bring moderate-to-heavy rain to the Midwest, Delta and Northern Plains, and mainly favorable conditions for South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

MIDWEEK STORM FOR MIDWEST

Wet weather and saturated fields will continue to delay spring fieldwork in most areas of the Midwest. Heavy rains falling onto melting snow cover in the northwest Midwest during midweek could create another major flooding event. It is possible that significant fieldwork delays could continue through the end of the month.

MIDWEEK RAIN, FLOOD THREAT FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Rain midweek falling onto moderate-to-heavy snow cover over southern and eastern areas could cause some significant flooding. A new crest is expected to form on the Red River and move northward later this week and next week. The first crest on the river is still moving north toward the Canadian border at this time.

GOOD MOISTURE FOR CENTRAL, SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Central and Southern Plains, there's adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing winter wheat. Crop ratings continue to improve. Heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through eastern and southern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas during the weekend.

MORE RAIN FOR DELTA DELAYS FIELDWORK

Heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred in the Delta region during the weekend. Another moderate-to-heavy rain event is expected during the middle of this week. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, moderate-to-locally-heavy showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo will favor development of second-crop corn, and late development of sugarcane and coffee. There are no significant concerns for soybean harvest in southern Brazil through Friday. A system next weekend will bear watching, as it may bring heavier rain or thunderstorms to the area.

POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK IN ARGENTINA

Argentina's key soybean and corn areas saw weekend showers in a few places but nothing major. It's drier again early this week. A strong cold front should track through later in the week. This might mean heavier thunderstorms for some areas. This may cause some harvest delays of corn, sunflower and soybeans. Rainfall will help to recharge soil moisture as we approach the planting season for winter wheat in the region.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIA

Moderate-to-heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through New South Wales and southern Queensland in late March. This provided a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. The forecast continues to suggest that the next 10 days will be mostly dry with a variable temperature pattern. This is likely to reduce or deplete the soil moisture in the area. Meanwhile, the Western Australia wheat belt has been seeing an increase in showers recently. This will begin to recharge soil moisture for planting wheat next month.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Periodic showers continue to move through South Africa. Rainfall might favor late-filling corn and late-developing sugarcane, but it will be unfavorable to highly unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

RAINS REACH EASTERN UKRAINE

Winter wheat is in vegetative growth in southern areas while wheat is breaking dormancy in the northern part of the Black Sea region. Dryness has been of some concern in eastern Ukraine during the early spring period. Rains have reached into this area during the weekend, which should continue today. This should help east concerns for crops in this area.

MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CHINA

Moderate-to-locally heavy showers and rain developed through key winter wheat areas of the North China Plain early this month. This included key growing areas of Henan and Shandong. This will be highly favorable to vegetative and reproductive wheat and is timely, following the typically dry winter period, especially in northern areas.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

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