DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a weak trough over Alaska. A weak ridge over northwest Canada. A trough over north-central and northeast Canada and a ridge over northwest Europe extending back into Greenland. This is producing cool temperatures in western Canada, variable central, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska extending into the northwest U.S. A flat ridge over the central U.S. A trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic.Subtropical high pressure extends from southern Mexico to the central Caribbean and southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 6 days. Fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. The polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada and a weak trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures over western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A flat ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the interior western U.S. A ridge over the interior eastern U.S. and a trough in the western atlantic. This will be a wet weather pattern for much of the central U.S. as disturbances move out of the trough in the west into a flow of gulf moisture over the central U.S. due to the ridge in the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...3 AT COTTON MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…JACKSON MS 2.72 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement today. I am using a little more of today's European model. A weak to moderate upper level trough is expected to move across the northern Rockies and the northern plains early in the period. A weak surface low forms over the central plains and tracks northeast through the western Midwest around the middle of the period. The US model is somewhat weaker and faster with this system. A new trough is shown moving across the Rockies and into the plains towards the end of the period. The European model features somewhat more rainfall over the western Midwest during the 6-10 day period than the US model. Neither model shows much rainfall through the eastern and southern Midwest or the Delta during the outlook period. However, there is a cold front passage moving through during the period that might become more active than is currently indicated by the models.

The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a strong trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a weak trough in the western US and a trough just off the mid-Atlantic coast. We note slightly above normal heights over the central and east Midwest and well above normal heights and upper level ridging over the northeast US, east Canada and the northwest Atlantic. The strong trough over the Gulf of Alaska and a strong jet stream south of this trough should continue to send frequent disturbances inland over the northwest US which would then dip southward over the western as indicated by the weak western US trough and then there track east-northeast from there. The slightly above normal heights in the Midwest suggest somewhat warmer temperatures. The period, overall, may not be as stormy as it has been recently but there is still potential for this pattern to produce a good deal of thunderstorm activity at times.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES: Rain midweek falling onto moderate to heavy snow cover over southern and eastern areas could cause some significant flooding. A new crest is expected to form on the Red River and move northward later this week and next week. The first crest on the river is still moving north towards the Canadian boarder at this time.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): Wet weather and saturated fields will continue to delay spring fieldwork in most areas of the Midwest. Heavy rains falling onto melting snow cover in the northwest Midwest during midweek could create another major flooding event. It is possible that significant fieldwork delays could continue through the end of the month.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred in the region during the weekend. Another moderate to heavy rain event is expected during the middle of this week. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Adequate to surplus soil moisture for developing winter wheat. Crop ratings continue to improve.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso, Goias, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo will favor development of second crop corn, late development of sugarcane and coffee. No significant concerns for the harvest of soybeans in southern Brazil through Friday. A system next weekend will bear watching as it may bring heavier rain or thunderstorms to the area.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): A few areas had showers during the weekend but nothing major. Drier again early this week. A strong cold front should track through later in the week. This might mean heavier thunderstorms for some areas. This may cause some delay to the harvests for corn, sunflower and soybeans. Rainfall will help to recharge soil moisture as we approach the planting season for winter wheat in the region.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Periodic shower activity continues to move through the region. Rainfall might favor late filling corn and late developing sugarcane but it will be unfavorable to highly unfavorable for maturing crops and early harvesting.

WESTERN FSU (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat is in vegetative growth southern areas while wheat is breaking dormancy in the north. Dryness has been of some concern in eastern Ukraine during the early spring period. Rains have reached into this area during the weekend which should continue today. This should help east concerns for crops in this area.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Moderate to locally heavy showers and rain developed through key winter wheat areas of the North China Plain early this month. This included key growing areas of Henan and Shandong. This will be highly favorable to vegetative and reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period... especially in northern areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through New South Wales and southern Queensland during during the last couple of days of March. This provided a much needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. The area has been under severe drought conditions for awhile. The forecast continues to suggest that the next 10 days will be mostly dry with a variable temperature pattern. This is likely to reduce or deplete the soil moisture in the area. Meanwhile, the western Australia wheat belt has been seeing an increase in shower activity recently. This will begin to recharge soil moisture for planting wheat next month.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Light to locally moderate precipitation lingered in northern areas Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Rain through southern and eastern Missouri during Sunday. Drier elsewhere in the region Sunday. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain occurred through southern, central and northeast areas during the weekend period. Ligh rain through northern Illinois, drier through southern Wisconsin. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal through north and central areas, somewhat warmer near the Ohio river.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry today and during the daytime hours of Tuesday. Rain north, showers south, during Tuesday night. Rain or showers and thundershowers during Wednesday. Rainfall may become moderate to heavy. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Rain east, drier west, during Thursday. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

East: Mostly dry today. A little light rain favoring northern areas tonight or during Tuesday. Rain or showers favoring western and northern areas later Wednesday or during Wednesday night. Showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Rain may linger in the east, drier west, during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Rainfall during this period should average moderate to heavy, occurring mostly during Thursday and early Friday. Temperatures average below normal today, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Rainfall should average near to above normal.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights…

Light precipitation lingered in the east Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Light precipitation Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal Saturday. Warmer from western North Dakota westward during Sunday. The eastern areas continued colder Sunday.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry today. Light to locally moderate precipitation, favoring southern and eastern areas, Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal west and above normal central and east tomorrow, near normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Dry or with only a little light rain or showers Saturday. Temperatures average near to mostly above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through eastern and southern Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas during the weekend period. Rain also in west Texas but mostly south of the Panhandle. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures well below normal Saturday and early Sunday, somewhat warmer later Sunday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today and Tuesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers from east and south Kansas through north and east Oklahoma and northeast Texas during Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures average above normal west and northeast and near to below normal southeast today, above to well above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Light rain or showers may linger in eastern areas early Thursday, mainly dry later in the day. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Thursday, below normal south and east and near to above normal northwest Friday, above normal west and northeast and near normal southeast Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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