DTN Midday Livestock Comments

China Sales Spark Renewed Gains

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Hog futures continue to remain aggressively higher following active export sales and shipment totals to China Thursday morning. This has sparked triple-digit gains in most contracts, as traders look for further support later in the week. Corn futures are lower in light trade. May corn futures are 2 3/4 cents lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 50 points lower with Nasdaq down 14 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures have found some renewed support following aggressive gains in hog trade. The overall lack of direction in cattle trade, and expectations that little will change over the next several weeks is allowing for more impact to filter in from outside markets. Cattle traders seem to be getting tired with the "status quo" message seen through most of the cattle complex, and wide ranging price swings in hog markets have allowed for renewed interest in many cattle traders. This is not expected to break out of the sideways trading range, which may limit market movement through the rest of the month. Cash cattle activity remains sluggish with little to no interest seen in the South following light to moderate trade Wednesday. Similar to last week, trade in the south could have wrapped up, but some cleanup activity may be seen if packers need to fill additional orders. Northern trade may hold off until late in the week, with bids seen at $124 to $126 live and $203 to $204 dressed. This sparked additional interest through the complex although asking prices are holding firm well above these levels at this point. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are mixed, $0.23 higher (select) and down $0.09 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 72 total loads reported (40 loads of choice cuts, 8 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 25 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Mixed trade is seen midday Thursday as traders continue to focus on increased support in live cattle trade as well as spillover buying interest from hog markets. The expectation is that if continued support moves into the hog and pork complex, price firmness will follow in beef as consumers may switch to beef products. Nearby futures are stuck in a 10 to 30 cent trading range, allowing for limited interest to develop through most of the morning.

LEAN HOGS:

Aggressive gains have quickly moved through the morning following a bullish export sales and shipments report. A total of 77.7 metric tons of pork was sold, with 46.4 mt shipped. This supported the overall bullish move that has been swarming through lean hog trade on the expectation that pork needs to buy pork to offset losses from African swine fever. Futures rallied limit higher in early trade, but has backed away from these levels through the morning although most contracts are trading $2 to per cwt higher or greater. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price fell $0.93 at $75.27 per cwt with the range from $67.00 to $77.00, on 3,626 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork values slipped despite active futures support and China sales. Pork cutouts fell $0.22 per cwt at $83.72 per cwt with 125 loads traded. Lean hog index for 4/9 is $79.29 up 0.40, with a projected two-day index is delayed.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment