Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A blizzard and major storm with heavy, wet snow, heavy rain, ice accumulations, blowing snow and damaging winds in parts of the Midwest and Plains, heavy rains for the Delta region this weekend, and mostly favorable conditions for South American crops, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Wednesday.

MAJOR BLIZZARD/STORM

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a blizzard and major spring storm to bring heavy rain then snow and blowing snow that will affect Wyoming, South Dakota, west and north Nebraska and southwest, central and northeast Minnesota during Wednesday or Thursday, followed by well-below-normal temperatures. A foot to 2 feet of snow is possible in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Strong winds combine with heavy snow to lead to blizzard conditions. This weather greatly increases stress to livestock while bringing travel and transport to a standstill in whiteout conditions. This snow and blowing snow may extend to northeast Colorado and possibly northwest Kansas for a time.

Southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa have a risk of severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening that could cause large hail, damaging winds and isolated thunderstorms. There is also ice accumulations possible in some areas, especially near the Iowa and Minnesota border through Thursday.

This weather greatly increases stress to livestock while bringing travel and transport to a standstill.

MAJOR RAIN, SNOW AND WIND FOR MIDWEST

A major rain and wind event appears likely for the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. A major snow and wind event is also likely in the northwest areas.

In the western Midwest, snow, ice and rain is expected in the north with rain, showers and thundershowers for the central and south areas today into Thursday. Light precipitation lingers in northern areas during Friday. Precipitation totals are likely to average 1-3 inches and locally heavier through western and northern areas, and light-to-moderate through southeast and south-central areas. The snowfall is expected to average 7-15 inches through west and north Nebraska, much of South Dakota, central and southwest Minnesota. Some areas could see 2 feet of snow, or even as much as 30 inches. Strong, damaging winds, will develop today and continue during Thursday. Strong winds will combine with heavy snow to create blizzard conditions in the region of heavier snow. This affects travel and transport in the region. This is likely to lead to flooding of fields and an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri river and the upper Mississippi river. Significant fieldwork delays may continue through the end of this month due to an active rainfall pattern.

For the eastern Midwest, there will be rain or thundershowers from northern Illinois into Wisconsin and across the Michigan today or tonight. Rain or showers are expected for the northwest, and showers and thunderstorms east, during Thursday into Thursday night. It will be dry or with only a little light precipitation north and east areas Friday. Precipitation totals will average 0.50-1.5 inches north, 0.25-1 inch and locally heavier east, and 0.10-0.50 inch southwest.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION, COLDER FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Rain and then heavy snow, along with blizzard conditions, will affect the southern and east-central portion of the Northern Plains crop belt. Light-to-moderate precipitation may reach to southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota but mostly misses the balance of the growing areas of North Dakota and the Canadian Prairies. Heavy precipitation remains mostly south of the Red River Basin. Light-to-moderate precipitation might reach the southern part of the Red River Basin. The Red River remains in flood stage due to melting snow, but this system does not look to add to the problem.

MAJOR STORM TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, there is adequate soil moisture for developing winter wheat. A major spring storm will affect northern areas later today into Thursday, with the potential for moderate-to-heavy snow and wind in western and central Nebraska, northeast Colorado and possibly northwest Kansas. This will put significant stress on livestock. Areas outside of these locations will see strong, damaging winds due to this storm but little precipitation. This may mean blowing dust for many areas and increased wildfire dangers. East Colorado, west Kansas, west Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle are under a high wind warning or a red flag warning as strong, damaging winds are expected to develop. The balance of the Central Plains region will also see strong winds from late today into Thursday with wind advisories up for these locations.

HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE IN DELTA

Heavy rainfall occurred in the Delta region last weekend. Signs point to another extreme rain event next weekend. These systems have included and will include severe weather. The region has mostly surplus soil moisture with a significant risk of severe flooding. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, scattered showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday in southeast crop areas. Showers will redevelop in Mato Grosso during the next few days. Recent showers and lower temperatures will favor development of second-crop corn and later development of sugarcane and coffee in central Brazil crop areas. Drier weather from southern Parana southward to Rio Grande do Sul helps improve conditions for the harvest of soybeans, especially after the rains in that area late last week.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN ARGENTINA

Argentina's key soybean and corn areas will have mostly dry weather this week. Conditions are favorable for maturing crops and harvesting. Showers may develop late this weekend into Monday. The southern winter wheat belt may see showers and some rain at times during the next seven days, possibly favoring eastern and central areas. Rain will help recharge soil moisture and favor early development of the winter wheat crop when planted.

FAVORABLE SHOWERS FOR NORTH CHINA

The North China Plain developed moderate-to-locally-heavy showers and thundershowers through key winter crop areas, including Henan and Shandong, early this week. This will be highly favorable to reproductive wheat and timely, following the typically dry winter period, especially in northern areas.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

(AG)

Copyright 2019 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.