Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- More rain for the Midwest and Delta areas, storms with possible heavy rain, wind and severe weather next week, warmer conditions for the Southern Plains, and generally favorable conditions for South American crops are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MAJOR STORM EVENT NEXT WEEK IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a major rain and wind event for the western and northern Midwest next Wednesday into Thursday. This is likely to lead to flooding of fields and an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri River and the upper Mississippi River. The southern portion of the eastern Midwest does not look to see this rainfall, although this will need to be watched as thundershowers could develop. In any case, the southeast Midwest should see a new rain event towards the end of the 10-day period.

WEEKEND PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, precipitation totals during the next 48 to 72 hours averaging 0.10 to 0.50 inch through southern and eastern areas. This includes a portion of the Red River Basin area. The major system next Tuesday and Wednesday should stay south of the Red River region. Warmer weather during the next three to five days increases the rate of melting of the deep snow pack over northwest Minnesota and increases the rise in levels of the Red River.

WARMER FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, favorable soil moisture conditions are expected to continue for the developing winter wheat crop. Warmer weather during the next five to six days will promote more rapid development of the wheat crop. Strong winds are expected to occur with the system next Wednesday and Thursday. This might lead to blowing dust in areas that miss out on the rainfall.

HEAVY RAINS IN DELTA

Heavy rainfall occurred in the Delta region yesterday with a second heavy rain event likely during the weekend. This means adequate to mostly surplus moisture in the region with a significant risk of flooding and possibly severe weather. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely. In the longer-range outlook, there is a chance that another heavy rain event will affect the area during the six- to 10-day period.

MOSTLY FAVORABLE FOR BRAZIL

For Brazil, conditions are mostly favorable for second-crop corn from Parana north to Mato Grosso and Goias at this time. Recent warm-to-hot weather should ease as showers have developed in the area this week. Moderate-to-heavy rain and thunderstorms in Rio Grande do Sul and southern Parana were expected for either overnight last night or today. This will likely affect the soybean harvest. Light-to-moderate showers in northern Parana today into Saturday will favor that state's second-crop corn while also delaying seasonal fieldwork somewhat.

MAINLY DRY FOR ARGENTINA

Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers are expected during the next seven days in Argentina. These are favorable conditions for maturing crops and harvesting. There could be some decrease in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting next month.

DRY TREND IN BLACK SEA REGION

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up. The forecast suggests that the recent drying trend over eastern Ukraine will continue during the next 10 days. There may be showers within this period but probably only light showers and net drying of soils. There is increasing stress to development of winter wheat over southeast Ukraine.

DRY TREND FOR EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In Australia, there were moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during the weekend. This provided a much-needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while. The forecast continues to suggest that the next 10 days will be mostly dry with a variable temperature pattern. This is likely to reduce or deplete the soil moisture from last weekend.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

The southern portion of the North China Plain winter wheat belt may see light-to-moderate showers early next week. Aside from this system, it will be mainly dry during the next 10 days. Wheat is reported to be in reproduction and needs rain to supplement irrigation at this crop stage.

Soil moisture and irrigation should be adequate to surplus in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because the fall and winter precipitation was above normal. This area may see periodic rainy weather during the next 10 days. This may be unfavorable for mature rapeseed and will likely delay the harvest.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Showers and thundershowers are expected in South Africa today into Saturday. The heaviest activity favors central and southern locations. Rainfall favors late-filling corn and late-developing sugarcane, but may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops and early harvesting.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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