DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Siberia. A weak trough over Alaska. The polar vortex over Canada and some ridging over northern Greenland. This is producing mild temperatures in western Canada, variable central, cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. A ridge over the central U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the north-central Caribbean.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days, fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak trough over Alaska and northwest Canada and a blocking ridge over northeast Canada extending into Greenland. This will be a cool/cold pattern for southern Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature some ridging in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. extending into the central U.S. Some ridging along and off the east coast of the U.S. and a trough in the northwest atlantic. This will be an active precipitation pattern for much of the central U.S. as disturbances move out of the trough in the west picking up significant gulf moisture as they head into the central U.S. A slower speed of movement of these systems is expected in the 6-10 day period due to the increase in amplitude of the pattern. This could produce a major spring storm for the Plains and Midwest towards the middle of next week. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to above normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Precipitation near to below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT LAREDO TX

LOW THU...1 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LAKE CHARLES LA 6.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first 2-3 days of the outlook period, fair agreement later in the period. I favor a compromise between the models today, especially as it concerns the end of the period.

The models are both forecasting a major rain and wind event for the region from South Dakota and Nebraska across the western Midwest and the northern portion of the eastern Midwest next Wednesday into Thursday. This system will also lead to strong winds but little rainfall through the southern portion of the central/south plains area and the southern part of the Midwest. The next significant upper level disturbance is shown in the southwest US next Friday.

The European model moves this system mostly to the east across the southern plains and the Delta before turning it north over the eastern US. This model suggests that the heavy rains associated with this system will mainly impact the Delta and the eastern US, possibly clipping the Ohio river valley. The US model lifts this system northward as it moves across the central plains area and into the Midwest during the last part of the period. This system suggests a higher risk of heavier rains further north than does the European model. I favor a compromise on this system, not as far south as the European model and not as far north as the US model. This suggests a good chance for more rain in the central and south plains region and the southern and eastern Midwest areas as well as the Delta late in the 10 day period.

Today's European model is also cooler looking east of the Miss river late in the period than the US model suggests. The US model holds back the upper level trough in the western US which implies much cooler weather in the western US but also warmer weather in the eastern US, especially the southeast US.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES: Precipitation totals during the next 48-72 hours averaging 0.10-0.50 inch through southern and eastern areas. This includes a portion of the Red River basin area. The major system next Tuesday-Wednesday should stay south of the Red River region. Warmer temperatures during the next 3-5 days increase the rate of melting of the deep snow pack over northwest Minnesota, increasing the rise in levels of the Red river.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRAVEL and TRANSPORT): A major rain and wind event appears likely for the western and northern Midwest next Wednesday into Thursday. This is likely to lead to flooding of fields and an increased risk for a new surge in river levels in the region, especially the middle Missouri river and the upper Miss river. The southern portion of the eastern Midwest does not look to see this rainfall, although this will need to be watched as thundershowers could develop. In any case the southeast Midwest should see a new rain event towards the end of the 10 day period.

DELTA (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS, COTTON): Heavy rainfall occurred in the region yesterday with a second heavy rain event likely during the weekend. This means adequate to mostly surplus moisture in the region with a significant risk of flooding and possibly severe weather. Delays to seasonal fieldwork appear likely. Longer range there is a chance that another heavy rain event will impact the area during the 6-10 day period.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Favorable soil moisture conditions are expected to continue for the developing winter wheat crop in southern plains. Warmer temperatures during the next 5-6 days will promote more rapid development. Strong winds are expected to occur with the system next Wednesday-Thursday. This might lead to blowing dust in areas that miss out on the rainfall.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Mostly favorable conditions for second crop corn from Parana north to Mato Grosso and Goias at this time. Recent warm to hot temperatures should ease as showers have developed in the area this week. Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms in RGDS and southern Parana either overnight last night or today. This will likely impact the harvest of soybeans. Light to moderate showers in northern Parana today into Saturday will favor that states second crop corn while also delaying seasonal fieldwork somewhat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers during the next 7 days. Favorable conditions for maturing crops and harvesting. Some decrease in soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting next month.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Showers and thundershowers are expected in the region today into Saturday. The heaviest activity favoring central and southern locations. Rainfall favors late filling corn and late developing sugarcane but may be somewhat unfavorable for early maturing crops and early harvesting.

WESTERN FSU (WINTER WHEAT): Winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up in southern areas while still dormant in the north. The forecasts suggests that the recent drying trend over eastern Ukraine will continue during the next 10 days. There may be showers within this period but probably only light showers and net drying of soils. Increasing stress to development of winter wheat over southeast Ukraine.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): The southern portion of the North China Plain winter wheat belt may see light to moderate showers early next week. Aside from this system mainly dry during the next 10 days. Wheat is reported to be in reproduction and needs rain to supplement irrigation at this crop stage.

Soil moisture and irrigation should be adequate to surplus in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze river valley area at this time due to above normal fall and winter precipitation. This area may see periodic rainy weather during the next 10 days. This may be unfavorable for maturing rapeseed and will likely delay the harvest.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT): Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms occurred through New South Wales and southern Queensland during last weekend. This provided a much needed boost to soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting.

The area has been under severe drought conditions for awhile. The forecast continues to suggest that the next 10 days will be mostly dry with a variable temperature pattern. This is likely to reduce or deplete the soil moisture put down by last weekends rain event.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Sprinkles and a few light showers during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal for the afternoon highs.

East: Light to locally moderate rain during the past 24 hours, heaviest central and southern Illinois and southern Indiana. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal north and near to above normal south for the afternoon highs.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Mostly dry during the daytime hours of today. A few thundershowers may occur in northwest areas overnight. Light to moderate showers favoring northeast and southwest areas Saturday. A few light showers linger in eastern areas early Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle during Tuesday. Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thundershowers along with strong winds develops Wednesday and continues into Thursday. The early call on this system is for 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rain with locally heavier possible.

Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday, cooler Wednesday and Thursday.

East: Mostly dry today and most of Saturday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers favoring southern and eastern areas Saturday night or during Sunday. A few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures average above normal today, above to well above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Rain is possible near the Ohio river during Monday, dry elsewhere in the region Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Moderate to heavy rain is expected late Wednesday or Wednesday night into Thursday for Wisconsin, Michigan, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and northwest Ohio. Scattered showers elsewhere in the region occurring mostly during Thursday. This may include thundershowers through the Ohio river valley. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday, it begins to turn cooler Wednesday, cooler Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal west and northeast areas, near to below normal southeast. Rainfall should average near to mostly above normal during this period.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat highlights…

Dry or with only very light precipitation in northeast areas during the past

24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal east, above normal central and west.

Northern Plains corn, soybeans and spring wheat forecast…

Mostly dry today. A few light showers with locally heavier favoring southern and western areas tonight, southern and eastern areas during Saturday. A few showers may linger in the east Sunday. Temperatures average above to well above normal through west and central areas during this period. The east will see near normal temperatures today, near to above normal Saturday and above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Moderate to heavy rain and windy is expected to move across South Dakota during Tuesday into Wednesday. The balance of the region will see little from this system during this time frame. Temperature average above normal Monday and Tuesday, cooler Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal during this period. Precipitation should average above normal in South Dakota, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers through southeast areas during the past 24 hours with isolated heavier possible. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Mostly dry today. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers develop in west Texas tonight before moving east across north and central Texas and southern Oklahoma Saturday and Saturday night. Light to locally moderate showers elsewhere in the central and east areas of the region Saturday or Saturday night. Dry or with only lingering rain in southeast areas Sunday.

Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Strong winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Rain or showers and thunderstorms appear likely from northeast Colorado through northern Kansas and southern Nebraska during this time period.

The balance of the region can expect mostly strong winds but little rainfall during this time. Temperatures average above to well above normal Monday and Tuesday, somewhat cooler in northern areas Wednesday and elsewhere in the region Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to turn cooler during Wednesday and Thursday and average mostly below or possibly well below normal after that.

Rainfall near to above normal in northern areas due to the Wednesday-Thursday storm and in southern areas due to another system later in the period. Not sure above areas between these two areas, it could go either way. Strong winds will occur with the Wednesday-Thursday storm, even in areas that do not see much rain.

Joel Burgio

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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