DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

May corn closed up 2 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was up 1 1/2 cents. May soybeans closed up 7 3/4 cents and November soybeans were up 7 1/2 cents. May KC wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents, May Chicago wheat was down 1/4 cent and May Minneapolis wheat was down 7 1/2 cents. The June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.258 at 96.920. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 119.22 points at 26,337.35. June gold is up $0.50 at $1,295.80, May silver is steady at $15.10 and May copper is down $0.0320 at $2.9165. May crude oil is up $0.12 at $62.58, May heating oil is up $0.0194, May RBOB is down $0.0012 and May natural gas is down $0.035.

Corn:

May corn ended up 2 1/2 cents at $3.65 1/4 Thursday, continuing to inch back from Friday's new low while the outlook remains uncertain for corn planting. The seven-day forecast continues to look wet with moderate rain amounts expected across the central Midwest and heavier amount across the southern states, along the Atlantic coast and in the Pacific Northwest. FOB corn prices at the Gulf have dropped 16 cents versus the futures board in the past three weeks -- a sign that concerns about river traffic may be easing. However, it is difficult to see any improvement yet as river levels remain high with snow still melting in the Northern Plains. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's corn export sales totaled 21.2 million bushels, thanks to Japan and Mexico. Shipments totaled 49.7 mb, falling 4.5 mb short of the weekly pace needed to meet USDA's export estimate in 2018-19. In South America, conditions remain favorable for Brazil's second corn crop with moderate rain amounts expected over most crop areas, while Argentina makes progress on the corn harvest. Fundamentally, corn supplies are in line with where they have been the past four years and face more competition from South America in the months ahead. Technically, last Friday's selloff turned the trend of corn prices down, but further downside potential is apt to be limited at these cheaper prices. For now, May futures appear to have found support near the 2018 low and cash corn prices bounced up from a four-month low. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.38 Wednesday, 25 cents below the May contract and back below its 100-day average. In outside markets, the June U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.26 and other commodities are mixed to higher.

Soybeans:

May soybeans closed up 7 3/4 cents Thursday, finishing at $9.06 1/2 on higher volume with help from guarded optimism concerning trade with China. According to CNBC.com, President Donald Trump is set to meet with China's Vice Premier Liu He later Thursday afternoon and traders will tune in to hear the latest comments. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean harvest is past the 75% mark and export shipments are picking up. Argentina is expecting a larger soybean crop this year and will be back in the soybean meal exporting business soon. Here in the U.S., it is still too wet and cold for much corn planting to take place, so there is a risk soybean acres could end up being higher than expected. Early Thursday, USDA said export sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 72.4 mb and 28.1 mb, respectively; still not enough to reach USDA's export estimate by the end of August. For now, the trends for both cash and futures soybean prices remain sideways, in spite of concerns about record ending supplies in 2018-19. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.13 Wednesday, chopping sideways and 86 cents below the May contract.

Wheat:

May Kansas City wheat ended up 2 3/4 cents Thursday at $4.39 1/2, holding mostly sideways the past month with light support from commercial net longs. May KC wheat futures are trading near their lowest prices in nearly two years and are also in the unusual position of trading 7% below the price of Chicago wheat as export business has been especially difficult to come by for HRW wheat. Thursday's weekly report from USDA showed HRW wheat exports down 24% in 2018-19, while SRW exports were up 24% on the year. Last week's sales of all wheat totaled 25.9 mb with Iraq listed as the top buyer. Wheat shipments, however, were just 15.3 mb and well below the 32.9 mb needed each week to reach USDA's goal of 965 mb for 2018-19. Thursday's weather map showed rain from the central Midwest down to Louisiana, keeping conditions in the Midwest and Mississippi Delta extremely wet. More rain is expected the next seven days with heavier amounts in SRW wheat areas and in the Pacific Northwest. Fundamentally, plentiful U.S. supplies continue to keep wheat prices under bearish pressure. Technically, the trends in cash HRW, SRW and HRS wheats all are down with prices probing for support. DTN's National HRW Index closed at $4.23 Wednesday, 14 cents under the May contract and up from its lowest prices in a year. DTN's National SRW Index closed at $4.46, also up from its lowest prices in a year.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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