Commodities Market Impact Weather

More Rain, Flood Threats for Midwest

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , DTN/Progressive Farmer Associate Content Manager
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OMAHA (DTN) -- More rain and flooding issues for the Midwest, and mostly favorable conditions in South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

CONTINUED FLOOD THREATS IN MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for continued major flooding in the northern and western Midwest due to heavy rains early in March and melting snow. Moderate-to-heavy rain will move through the southern portion of the western Midwest and most of the eastern Midwest today into Saturday. This will lead to renewed flooding along the rivers within these areas during this time frame. It is likely that near- to above-normal rain will also continue during the six- to 10-day period as well. Fieldwork will remain very slow or not at all for most areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS RIVER FLOODING

In the Northern Plains, the still-melting heavy snowpack in the eastern Dakotas will lead to major flooding on the Red River this spring. Rainfall is expected to be limited during the next seven days allows a more orderly snowmelt.

ADEQUATE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, adequate-to-surplus soil moisture remains favorable for winter wheat as it exits dormancy. In the six- to 10-day forecast, temperatures are expected to average near to above normal, with precipitation near to below normal in west and northeast areas, and near to above normal in the southeast.

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FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN BRAZIL

Warm, dry weather will favor the soybean harvest in southern Brazil during the weekend before more unsettled weather and lower temperatures move in during the middle of next week. Recent showers will be more likely within the next week over Mato Grosso, and this will support favorable development of second-crop corn (safrinha).

MOSTLY FAVORABLE IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, showers and possibly a few thundershowers develop in Cordoba and Santa Fe Sunday or Monday. Otherwise, there's dry weather during the balance of the seven-day period. Showers may briefly slow the early harvest and are somewhat unfavorable for maturing crops. However, overall, it's a mostly favorable weather pattern for crops at this time.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA CONDITIONS

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat prospects are currently favorable across the region due to a wet fall and winter, though developing short-term dryness over eastern Ukraine bears watching. A variable temperature pattern at this time shows not much chance for meaningful rainfall. Winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAINFALL

In Australia, a strong cold front is projected to bring moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms through New South Wales and southern Queensland during the next 24 to 48 hours. Rainfall potential appears to be a half inch to 2 inches and locally heavier. It will be heaviest from northern NSW to southeast Queensland. This will be unfavorable for late-maturing sorghum and cotton and harvesting of these crops; however, it will provide a much-needed boost to soil moisture in wheat areas. Wheat planting can begin in Queensland during April, but normally holds off in New South Wales until May. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while.

CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK IN CENTRAL EUROPE

Central Europe's current drying trend continues through Monday. After that, there are increased chances for some rain and lower temperatures. Rain early this month, when also combined with early winter increased precipitation, has improved the outlook for these crops this spring. This follows last season's drought.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

Mainly dry weather is expected to continue across the North China Plain during the next six to 10 days. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall will be needed to support increasing development of winter wheat, especially through climatologically drier north and west areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be favorable in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because of above-normal fall and winter precipitation. Conditions are mostly favorable for central and west areas, but too wet in eastern areas.

HOT AND DRY WEEKEND IN SOUTH AFRICA

Warm-to-hot weather and little rainfall is expected through Sunday in South Africa. Scattered showers and thundershowers return to the region during the early or middle part of next week. The current drier, hotter spell will stress late-filling maize and sugarcane, while favoring early maturing crops. Showers next week favor the late-filling maize and sugarcane crops.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
Connect with Elaine: