Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- More rain headed for the Midwest, and unsettled conditions next week, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

WET MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for continued major flooding in the northern and western Midwest due to heavy rains early in March and melting snow. Elsewhere, a moderate-to-heavy rain event appears likely for the remainder of the Midwest at the end of this week. This is expected to affect southern areas of the western Midwest and most of the eastern Midwest. Renewed flooding for south, central and east areas appears likely. In the six- to 10-day outlook, temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, near to above normal east. Precipitation should average near to above normal in south and east areas, while near to below normal for the northwest.

NORTHERN PLAINS RIVER FLOODING

In the Northern Plains, the still-melting heavy snowpack in the eastern Dakotas will lead to major flooding on the Red River this spring. Rainfall is expected to be limited during the next seven to 10 days, allowing a more orderly snowmelt.

ADEQUATE SOUTHERN PLAINS MOISTURE

In the Southern Plains, adequate-to-surplus soil moisture remains favorable for winter wheat as it exits dormancy. In the six- to 10-day forecast, temperatures are expected to vary somewhat, with precipitation near to below normal in west and northeast areas, and near to above normal in the southeast.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN BRAZIL

Showers in Mato Grosso and Goias favor developing second-crop corn in central Brazil. Dry weather or only a few light showers in southern Brazil favors the soybean harvest during the next seven days.

RAIN IN ARGENTINA

In Argentina, rain may develop in northern Santa Fe and Cordoba this coming weekend, lingering in Cordoba into Monday. Rain is unfavorable for maturing corn and soybeans and may delay the early harvest. Most of the key growing areas in central and southern Argentina will miss this rainfall. This is favorable weather for maturing crops and early harvesting.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA CONDITIONS

In the Black Sea region, winter wheat prospects are currently favorable across the region due to a wet fall and winter, though developing short-term dryness over eastern Ukraine bears watching. A variable temperature pattern at this time shows not much chance for meaningful rainfall. Winter wheat is breaking dormancy and greening up.

EASTERN AUSTRALIA RAINFALL

In Australia, moisture associated with a former tropical cyclone is bringing rain to parts of Queensland at this time, but this is not in the wheat-growing areas. A strong cold front is projected to move through the increased moisture field this Friday. Moderate-to-heavy thunderstorms should occur in New South Wales and southern Queensland. This is unfavorable for late-maturing sorghum and cotton and harvesting of these crops. It will provide a much-needed boost to soil moisture in wheat areas. Wheat planting can begin in Queensland during April, but normally holds off in New South Wales until May. The area has been under severe drought conditions for a while now.

DRY TREND IN CENTRAL EUROPE

Central Europe's current drying trend continues for another five days. After that, there are increased chances for some rain. Rain early this month, when also combined with early winter increased precipitation, has improved the outlook for these crops this spring. This follows last season's drought. The current drying trend is favorable in terms of improving conditions for early spring fieldwork.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR NORTH CHINA

Mainly dry weather is expected to continue across the North China Plain during the next six to 10 days. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period. Rainfall will be needed to support increasing development of winter wheat, especially through climatologically drier north and west areas. Soil moisture and irrigation should be favorable in winter rapeseed areas of the Yangtze River Valley area at this time because of above-normal fall and winter precipitation.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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