DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS: Limited activity slowly developed in livestock trade Friday as traders backed away from wide market swings this week and focused more on position-squaring ahead of the weekend. This left prices mixed in a narrow trading range in most contracts. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Feb LC up $2.05; Apr LC up $1.70; Mar FC up $0.30; Apr FC up $0.08; Apr LH off $4.08; May LH off $2.98. Cash cattle trade remained at a standstill as of midafternoon Friday, and it appeared that active trade would hold off until late afternoon and evening Friday once again. This has becoming a pattern over the last few weeks of both sides holding out until Friday evening. Bids had improved slightly and were holding at $123 to $125 live and $202 dressed. Even though the gap was slowly narrowing, it was still below asking prices of $128 live and $205 to $207 dressed. The National Daily Direct afternoon hog report was $0.42 higher ($43.50-$47.85, weighted average $46.76) on 9,206 head sold. Corn futures were mixed in light activity with the March down 1/4 cent per bushel. The Dow Jones Index was 181 points higher with Nasdaq up 67 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures saw firm late-week gains of $0.07 to $1.05. The front-month February contract closed $1.05 higher, though support was mainly due to traders trying to roll out of the expiring contract. The rest of the contracts were stuck in narrow trade ranges from 7 to 30 cents per cwt as traders continued to focus on increased support. With beef demand remaining strong and expected market firmness through spring, live cattle futures are expected to hold in the top end of trading ranges over the next couple of weeks. Beef cut-outs: higher, up $0.94 (select, $212.35) to up $1.32 (choice, $219.39) with light demand and offerings, 82 loads (33 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, 8 load of trimmings, 28 loads of coarse grinds).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Steady. Activity early next week will return to normal information-gathering. Showlists will be delivered and inventory will be taken as both sides assess market direction and needs. Bids and offers are not expected until midweek or later.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures trickled lower in limited activity. Futures closed $0.32 lower to $0.35 higher. Limited volume seemed to be the consistent theme Friday with narrow losses developing in all nearby contracts. The Jan. 1 Cattle on Feed report released Friday afternoon showed a 2% placement loss in December 2018 compared to December 2017, but since the information was delayed, the impact of the numbers is likely to be minimal when trade resumes next week. CME cash feeder index for 2/21 is $141.31, up $0.20.

LEAN HOGS: Lean hog futures closed mixed ($0.50 lower to $0.22 higher) in limited trade. April struggled to draw support back to the complex as traders focused on squaring positions Friday. Outside of the spot-month April contract, which posted a 50-cent loss, the rest of the complex remained mixed to mostly higher with futures contained in a narrow range. The lack of follow-through support due to light trade volume is expected to be viewed as bearish, as traders tried to capitalize on the Thursday rally. Pork cutout values continue to erode with strong price pressure in most primal cuts. Pork cutout values fell $2.22 per cwt, moving to $59.01 per cwt on 337 loads. CME cash lean index for 2/20 is $54.06, down $0.07. DTN Projected lean index for 2/21 $53.65, down $0.41.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1.50 lower. Continued cash market pressure is expected to develop early next week as packers focus on the backlog of hogs over the past week or so, as well as the next round of winter weather that may continue to delay hog movement over the weekend and into Monday morning. Monday slaughter is expected at 468,000 head, dependent on weather.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(AG)

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