DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a blocking ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over north-central Canada and a weak ridge over northeast Canada and Greenland. This is producing cold/very cold temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a migratory trough in the southeast Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western U.S. A weak ridge over the eastern U.S. and a strong trough in the northwest atlantic. The center of subtropcal high pressure is over the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska extending across northern Canada into southwest Greenland. This is a cold/very cold pattern for Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. extending into the central and northeast U.S. and a ridge over the southwest atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the west moving along the boundary zone between the cold air to the north and west and the warm air to the south and east. This will be a stormy pattern for the south-central and eastern U.S. including the eastern Midwest. Temperatures will be colder the further to the north you head more variable to the south.

This pattern will feature below normal temperatures in the western Midwest, variable in the east. Precipitation near to below normal west, near to above normal east. The northern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal.The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to above normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...85 AT SARASOTA/BRADENTON FL

LOW SUN...35 BELOW ZERO AT KABETOGAMA LAKE MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LITTLE ROCK AR 0.81 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. I favor today's European model during times when the differences are enough to make a call but as indicated these differences are only slight.

The mean maps at 8 to 10 days feature above normal heights over much of the Pacific nosing through the Gulf of Alaska and into Alaska. The European model also shows above normal heights over northern Canada and Greenland. We note a trough centered over Hudson Bay on the European model and a little northwest of there on the US model. The Canadian model is similar to the European model which is the preferred solution. This is a cold pattern for most of Canada. We also note a mean trough featuring below normal heights over much of the western and northern US region on these maps. This is likely a cold pattern in the western and north-central US areas and somewhat more variable in the northeast US. Ridging is mostly over the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida and in the Atlantic east of the US region. These locations may be somewhat warmer.

This remains an active pattern in the western US and also from the Lower Miss and Ohio river valleys to the middle Atlantic region of the eastern US.

Drier elsewhere in the key regions.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE/COFFEE): Hot/dry weather from late last week through the weekend weather stresses pod filling soybeans in southern Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul and Parana). Some beneficial rains and cooler temperatures are expected early this week. Some recent beneficial rains for late pod filling soybeans in central Brazil and for developing cane and coffee.

Rain in central Brazil will benefit the safrina corn crop which is currently being planted. Rain may slow the soybean harvest and the planting effort for corn in some areas.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Recent hot temperatures in the central growing areas have been somewhat unfavorable for developing crops.

However, todays rainfall and cooler temperatures should ease stress to crops.

Drier, hotter conditions in southern growing areas has recently been somewhat more stressful in key growing areas for Sunflower.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRANSPORT): Snow, ice and rain will again impact transportation and stress livestock early this week. A second system late in the week may also cause problems.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Mostly favorable conditions for the overwintering crop in the Midwest although soil moisture supplies have decreased significantly in west Texas with reports of the crop in need of moisture. No damaging cold is indicated at this time.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Beneficial rain fell in western sections of the corn belt, helping to stabilize crops impacted by earlier periods of dryness. Following a brief period of beneficial rain in late December, a general trend of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather dominated much of the region through January. The unseasonable warmth and dryness in the western corn belt coincided with the latter stages of summer crop planting, and the relatively poor conditions raised concern that some area may have remained unplanted. Rainfall has generally been more consistent in eastern sections of the corn belt.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for overwintering crops. Autumn drought limited winter crop emergence and establishment from eastern France and the Low Countries into Germany and northwestern Poland as well as portions of the western and central Balkans; producers will likely need to replant in the spring in the worst drought areas.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): Some beneficial precipitation over central and southern areas.

INDIA (WINTER WHEAT/RAPESEED): Some beneficial rain for winter wheat.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat highlights

West: Scattered light precipitation, up to about 0.25 inch melted, during the weekend period. The heaviest occurred in southwest to south-central Iowa.

Temperatures averaged below to well below normal north, below to near normal south, Saturday and Sunday.

East: Rain south, scattered light precipitation otherwise, mainly late in the weekend period. Temperatures averaged near to mostly below normal, coldest Saturday.

Midwest Corn, Soybeans, Winter Wheat Forecast

West: Light to moderate precipitation today, mostly snow or ice, heaviest southern and eastern areas later today or during tonight. Snowfall of more than 4 inches is expected. Mainly dry during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to mostly below normal during this period.

Light snow with some heavier possible later Thursday or during Thursday night and early Friday. Drier later Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures average near to below normal Thursday, below or well below normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Rain or showers south and east-central areas, snow or ice northwest and northeast locations, this afternoon, tonight and early Tuesday. Drier later Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. The snow may be locally heavy in northwestern areas.

Temperatures average above normal today and Tuesday, somewhat colder Wednesday.

Light to moderate precipitation with some locally heavier redevelops late Thursday or during Thursday night and Friday. The heaviest precipitation, mostly rain, favors south and east areas. Snow or ice through northwest areas during this time. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average above normal Thursday, somewhat colder again Friday and Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal southeast. Precipitation near to below normal west and northeast, near to above normal southeast.

Central/southern plains wheat and livestock highlights...

Light to locally moderate showers through northeast Texas during the weekend period. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains wheat and livestock forecast...

Light to locally moderate precipitation east, fair west, today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, near to above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry or with only a little very light precipitation Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal west and near to below normal east Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal west and northeast, near to below normal southeast areas.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures averaged above to well above normal Friday and Saturday with highs 95 to 101F. Temperatures near normal in RGDS and above to well above normal in Parana Sunday.

Forecast...

Scattered showers and thundershowers develop in the south and spread north today and tonight. Scattered showers may linger in the north during Tuesday.

Drier Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal today before turning somewhat cooler Tuesday and Wednesday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers will occur in the region Thursday and Friday. The activity may favor central and northern areas but this is a little uncertain. Drier Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal south and near to above normal north through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers east and northwest locations during the weekend period. Light to locally moderate showers with variable coverage elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast...

Isolated to scattered showers today. Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Tuesday and Wednesday. The activity may favor Goias and Mato Grosso during this period. Temperatures near to above normal today, mostly near to slightly below normal tomorrow and Wednesday.

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers Thursday and Friday.

Somewhat drier Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Scattered showers and thundershowers were mainly in southern Cordoba and northern Buenos Aires early in the weekend period. Scattered thundershowers have developed in much of the region overnight. Temperatures averaged near to above normal. Highs upper 80s to very low 90s F.

Forecast...

Scattered showers and thundershowers linger today, especially central and northern areas. Drier tomorrow. Dry or with only a few light showers possible during Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period, possibly well below normal for a time.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average below normal Thursday, somewhat warmer Friday and Saturday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the weekend period. Temperatures 91 to 100F Saturday, 85 to 93F Sunday.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle early today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal today and Tuesday, near normal Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist

(BAS)

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