DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

March corn closed down 3 1/2 cents per bushel and December corn was down 2 3/4 cents. March soybeans closed down 8 1/2 cents and November soybeans were down 7 1/4 cents. March K.C. wheat closed down 13 cents, March Chicago wheat was down 12 3/4 cents and March Minneapolis wheat was down 8 3/4 cents.

The March U.S. dollar index is trading up 0.118 at 96.270. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 260.55 points at 25,129.75. April gold is at $1,314.40, March silver is up $0.02 at $15.73 and March copper is down $0.0090 at $2.8275. March crude oil is down $1.32 at $52.69, March heating oil is down $0.0124, March RBOB is down $0.0349 and March natural gas is down $0.102.

Corn:

March corn closed down 3 1/2 cents at $3.76 1/2 Thursday, showing bearish pressure from a commodity quote board that was nearly all red, but not enough to push futures prices outside their sideways range. The seven-day forecast remains favorable for Argentina and Brazil, especially in northern Brazil where more rain is expected as the planting season gets underway for the safrinha crop. USDA said early Thursday weekly export sales and shipments of corn totaled 19.8 and 39.6 million bushels, respectively, for the week ending December 27. The numbers were low at Christmas time, but the overall export pace is still bullish with total export commitments up 19% in 2018-19 from a year ago. USDA will release several new estimates at 11 a.m. CST Friday, and if there is a surprise, it will likely be in the report of December 1 corn stocks, expected by Dow Jones' survey at 12.117 billion bushels (bb). For now, the trend in cash corn remains up, in line with its seasonal tendency. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.52 Wednesday, at its highest level in seven months and priced 28 cents below the March contract. Outside markets were broadly bearish Thursday with the March U.S. dollar index trading up 0.12.

Soybeans:

After not trading much the past three days, March soybeans dropped 8 1/2 cents Thursday to $9.13 1/4. Prices are still roughly sideways with where they have traded the past two months and much of Thursday's selling was prompted by news from CNBC.com related to the trade talks. CNBC reported Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are not likely to meet before the March 2 trade deadline. Judging by Thursday's broad bearish response in commodities and U.S. stocks, traders took that as a sign that the talks are not going well. However, CNBC also quoted administration officials as suggesting the deadline may be extended, saying the situation was fluid and would depend on the results of next week's meeting. In other words, nothing is confirmed yet and we can see by Thursday's broad selling that investors are nervous. USDA did report soybean export sales and shipments of 38.6 and 33.8 million bushels, respectively, for the week ending December 27, not much change for the holiday week. Among soy products, March meal closed down $3.50, while bean oil stayed relatively firm, ending down 0.09 cent. With a lot riding on the outcome of trade talks with China, the trend for cash soybeans remains sideways. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $8.33 Wednesday, staying below the old July high of $8.41 and priced $0.88 below the March contract.

Wheat:

Wheat March K.C. wheat dropped 13 cents to $4.96 1/4 Thursday and March Chicago wheat was down 12 3/4 cents, both falling back after cash prices had been testing their highest levels in five months without success of pushing higher. There was no special reason evident for Thursday's selling, but contributing factors included bearish outside commodity markets, the U.S. dollar's rebound the past week and a moderately lower wheat price in Europe. Currently, U.S. weather is split with mild temperatures east of the Mississippi River and subzero temperatures in the northwestern Plains, reaching into western Kansas near. Traders, of course, are showing no concern about U.S. winter wheat conditions this early in the season and may not react much to Friday's reports, unless USDA is holding a surprise. Analysts in Dow Jones' survey are expecting 32.0 million acres of winter wheat seedings, the lowest in over a century. In spite of Thursday's lower prices, the trend in cash SRW wheat remained up, while the trends in cash HRW and SRW wheats are sideways. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.87 Wednesday, 22 cents under the March contract and near its highest prices in five months. DTN's National SRW index closed at $5.02, also near its highest prices in five months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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