DTN Before The Bell-Livestock

Spillover Pressure Develops in Hog Futures

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)
GENERAL COMMENTS

Light to moderate pressure is seen in most livestock markets Monday morning as federal employees return to work following the reopening of the federal government. General pressure is developing in most livestock and outside markets, which is limiting buyer activity Monday morning, and likely to weaken the general tone of live cattle and lean hog trade through the morning session. Corn markets are lower in light early trade. Stock markets are lower. Dow Jones is 338 points lower with Nasdaq down 110 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Open: Mixed. Narrow trading ranges have slowly developed Monday morning with traders looking for additional longer-term direction through the entire complex. The continued pressure in hog trade is adding even more cautious to cattle markets, as traders remain concerned about trader activity as well as the potential to bring about increased long-term volume to the complex. This may keep prices range bound through the Monday session as more focus is being placed on outside market movement. Cash cattle markets remain quiet with the only order of business through the day expected to be seen in show list distribution and inventory taking. Active trade is likely to be pushed off until the end of the week once again. Open interest Friday increased 343 positions (387,485). Spot month February contracts slipped 3,409 positions (46,670) and April contracts added 2,473 positions (158,060). DTN projected slaughter for Monday is 119,000 head.

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Open: Steady to 20 cents higher. Narrow trading ranges have slowly developed early Monday morning as traders focus on the building stability seen through the entire cattle complex. The potential to instill buyer activity early in the week could help to add further market support to feeder cattle trade which have been oversold over the last two weeks. Cash index for 1/24 is listed at $143.21 up $0.97. Open interest Friday added 360 positions (51,408).

LEAN HOGS:

Open: Steady to 50 cents lower. Limited follow-through pressure is quickly developing early Monday morning as traders remain focused on the sharp losses seen in the complex over the last couple of days. Early trade is expected to be mixed with spill over selling and an attempt to cover short positions through the morning although the trend continues to weaken through early week trade. Concerns surrounding sharp pressure in most outside markets is likely to limit buyer activity during the morning. Cash hog trade is steady to $1 lower. Most bids are 50 cents lower. Open interest added 3,851 positions (213,773). February gained 456 positions (25,943) and April added 1,683 positions (88,163). Cash lean index for 1/24 is $58.50, unchanged. DTN projected slaughter for Friday is 477,000 head.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

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Rick Kment