Commodities Market Impact Weather

Late Brazil Rain

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Delayed rainfall in central Brazil, and an intense central U.S. cold pattern, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

BITTER COLD FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for periods of snow in the Midwest through the weekend. Snow, low temperatures, and strong winds are expected to cause delays to travel and transport, especially through north and some central areas. Extreme cold in northern areas of the soft red winter wheat belt next week will bear watching. It appears that the northwest Ohio area will fell to near or below minus 10 Fahrenheit but it is also possible that snow cover would be in place to protect the crop from the extreme cold.

WINDY AND COLD IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, a brief but intense round of cold and windy conditions are indicated through early next week. At this point, the cold snap does not appear to be threatening to winter wheat, but the pattern will bear watching. Meanwhile, very dry conditions are leading to increased concern over fire potential in the region.

LATE-ARRIVING CENTRAL BRAZIL RAIN

In Brazil's northern and central crop areas, increasing showers this weekend may help to ease stress to late-filling soybeans, sugarcane and to coffee. However, yield declines are not likely to be recovered. Showers may cause some delay to the harvest, but this is not expected to be a major concern. Depending on how much rain does occur, this could help improve conditions for planting second-crop (safrinha) corn, in some locations.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN BRAZIL PATTERN

In southern Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul continues to be positioned between heavy rainfall in Argentina and stressful heat and dryness in the south-central Brazil state of Parana. In general, Rio Grande do Sul has less dryness stress in its crop prospects.

POSSIBLE ARGENTINA FLOODING

Central Argentina have heavy rainfall threats for the next week. Heaviest rain is possible in corn, soybean and sunflower areas. Local flooding is possible. At this point in the season, Argentina's crop weather pattern has generally been more favorable than we have seen in Brazil.

ACTIVE BLACK SEA PATTERN

Europe and the Black Sea region remain in an active winter storm pattern, covering southern and eastern Europe into Ukraine. This likely means episodes of snow with heavy snow possible over the northern Balkan states and in Ukraine. Improving snow cover protects winter grains from winter cold. Meanwhile, snow delays transport at times.

DRY AND HOT IN EASTERN AUSTRALIA

In eastern Australia, harsh drought during the past four weeks has shriveled row crops, including sorghum. The next week continues to offer only light precipitation, along with high temperatures.

STILL HOT IN SOUTH AFRICA

Corn areas of South Africa remain hot, with only widely scattered showers Thursday. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend. The overall trend is stressful to corn and sugarcane.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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