DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS: Lean hog futures were down by triple digits Friday, adding more weakness to livestock markets. Traders focused on fundamental and technical factors through late January. Cattle futures were mixed in light trade. From Friday to Friday, livestock futures scored the following changes: Feb LC, off $0.47; Apr LC, off $0.52; Jan FC, up $1.92; Mar FC, up $0.80; Feb LH, off $2.85; Apr LH, off $4.15. Cash cattle trade developed through Friday afternoon with live trade seen mostly $123 per cwt, $1 per cwt lower than last week. Dressed cattle in the North sold steady with last week's price levels, at $197 per cwt. A few more cattle may sell late Friday, but the tone of the market is already set. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.15 lower ($46-$52.19, weighted average of $51.32). Corn futures are higher in light activity. March futures were 3 1/4 cents higher. Dow Jones Index is 183 points higher with the Nasdaq up 91 points.

LIVE CATTLE: Live cattle futures ended the week mixed, $0.45 lower to $0.70 higher. The live cattle market has been the most stable of all livestock trade this week. Short-term and long-term trade went in opposite directions Friday with nearby contracts posting firm gains late Friday while deferred contracts saw limited losses. The market remains generally neutral at this point, but the strong support early in the month seems to be carrying over. The absence of the monthly Cattle on Feed report Friday due to the partial government shutdown may add more uncertainty to the market. Beef cut-outs: lower, down $0.11 (select, $212.03) to down $0.74 (choice, $217.01) with good demand and light offerings. There was a total of 97 loads (52 loads of choice cuts, 13 loads of select cuts, 7 load of trimmings, 25 loads of coarse grinds).

MONDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL: Activity Monday is expected to remain at a standstill with packers and feedlot managers trying to gain accurate numbers of cattle sold late this week, as well as distribution of showlists.

FEEDER CATTLE: Feeder cattle futures were $0.22 to $0.70 lower as traders adjusted positions ahead of the weekend. Limited market pressure Friday allowed for initial narrow losses to gain momentum through the end of the session. There may be some additional market shifts early next week, but mixed moves in live cattle trade and limited outside market direction may spark additional buyer activity. CME cash feeder index for 1/24 is $143.21, up $0.97.

LEAN HOGS: Sharp losses continued Friday in lean hogs with futures closing $0.47 to $1.45 lower. February through August futures traded $1 to $2 per cwt lower through the end of the week. The most aggressive pressure held in nearby futures as traders remain concerned about underlying softness in pork values, which is sparking demand uncertainty. Pork values bounced higher at the end of the week following a three-day market slide. Pork cutout values added $0.40 per cwt, moving to $67.67 per cwt on 267 loads. CME cash lean index for 1/23 is $58.50, down $0.08. DTN Projected lean index for 1/24: $58.50, unchanged.

MONDAY'S CASH HOG CALL: Steady to $1 lower. Additional price pressure is expected to develop early next week with bids likely to be seen steady to $1 per cwt lower, although most bids will remain 50 cents lower. Monday slaughter is expected to return to 477,000 head.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(AG)

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