DTN Ag Weather Brief

TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...78 AT THERMAL CA

LOW THU...15 BELOW ZERO AT CRANE LAKE MN

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SEATTLE WA 0.33 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period. I favor a blend between the models during times when the differences are enough to make a call.

A short wave trough and surface low is expected to move across the Rockies and into the plains region about the middle of the period. The US model shows the surface low stronger, a little further south and slightly slower than the European model next Friday. The US model is also stronger and slower with the system as it tracks towards New England at the end of this period. The US model has some light to moderate precipitation through the eastern portion of the southern plains with this system. The European model shows little in the plains region. The US model is heavier and further south and east with the precipitation as it moves through the Midwest region and also heavier through the northeast US area as well. The European model is not as heavy with the precipitation in the Midwest but is further north and west with the activity and somewhat faster moving it in and then out of the region. The models both feature warmer weather ahead of this system and somewhat colder weather behind it, especially in the north and east Midwest and through the northeast US region.

The mean maps at 8-10 days feature a split jet stream pattern. The northern branch features ridging over Alaska and the southwestern Arctic circle with a strong to moderate polar trough centered just to the northeast of Hudson Bay Canada. The US model is stronger with this trough. The southern branch of the jet stream features a weak to moderate trough over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada or a little further west from there, depending on the model.

The southern branch of the jet moves across the southern US on these maps. A weak trough is suggested in the vicinity of the Delta. The system mentioned above in the first part of this discussion is difficult to pick out on these mean maps, due to the averaging of a 3 day period (8-10 days).

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

BRAZIL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN: The upper level analysis shows the Atlantic ridge nosing west across southern and east-central Brazil with yesterday's strong short wave trough now moving east of Buenos Aires. The interaction of this two features yesterday lead to some thunderstorm activity northward into Parana, further north than was expected. It still appears likely that the ridge will strengthen somewhat and drift a little further west with time and be with us for much of the ten day period. This likely means below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures in the area from Parana and MGDS north and northeast.

However, there is still some chance for afternoon showers in Parana for a few more days.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN/SUGARCANE): Rain and thunderstorms will maintain more favorable conditions for crops in RGDS during this period. Thundershowers that occurred yesterday in Parana may have helped ease stress to crops in some fields while others likely remained drier. Drier, hotter weather from Parana north to Mato Grosso and northeast to Bahia next week will stress developing soybeans, corn and sugarcane. This is likely to impact crop yield forecasts for these locations. No significant concerns for mature crops and harvesting in Mato Grosso at this time.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans throughout the major growing areas of central Argentina with adequate to surplus soil moisture and no significant hot spells.

However, some impact to crops is possible due to wet weather in northeast and central Argentina. This especially impacts quality of winter wheat at this time.

MIDWEST (SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT, TRANSPORT): A moderate to heavy snow storm is expected to develop from the east-central plains through the southern and central Midwest region Friday night into Saturday. These areas will likely experience delays to travel and transport during this time frame. Following this period conditions will improve again. No significant threat to the soft red winter wheat crop during the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/LIVESTOCK): Favorable conditions for overwintering wheat in the southern plains. There is no damaging cold weather in sight. No significant stress to livestock in the feed lots during this period. Although precipitation today into tonight in east Colorado, west and north Kansas will likely include some snow or ice.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Periodic scattered to widely scattered showers and no significant heat waves should favor developing crops at this time.

However, more rain might still be needed in some locations.

EUROPE/UKRAINE/WEST RUSSIA (WINTER WHEAT): It has recently turned quite cold in portions of southeast Europe and Ukraine with readings falling below zero F.

However, these temperatures occurred in areas where snow cover was more than adequate to protect the crop from this cold weather. The weather pattern is cold at times over eastern Europe and Ukraine but probably not extremely cold.

It is also an active weather pattern with additional chances to add to the protective snow cover.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT): The region has turned colder recently but it does not appear to have been cold enough to impact dormant winter grains. It does not look to be very cold during the next 7 to 10 days, although below normal at times. Precipitation mainly through the Yangtze river valley while the North China Plain remains seasonally drier.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast...

West: Mainly dry early today. Snow, ice and some rain through southern areas late today, tonight and Saturday. Snowfall of 4-8 inches is likely with locally heavier possible from southern most areas of Iowa through northern and central areas of Missouri. Mainly dry again during Sunday. Temperatures average above normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

East: Mostly dry early today. Snow, ice or rain develops through southern areas later today. Snow and ice tonight and Saturday into Saturday evening will be heaviest in southern areas, light central and little in the north. Drier again during Sunday. Snowfall of 4-8 inches and locally heavier is expected through west-central and south Illinois and south Indiana, 3-6 inches through elsewhere in the central areas. Temperatures average above to near normal west, near to below normal east.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Monday, somewhat warmer Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal.

Precipitation near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east areas.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. A little light rain and showers through the Texas Panhandle, north Texas and in Oklahoma during the night. Temperatures averaged above normal, well above normal in the west.

Forecast: Rain or showers and thundershowers through southern areas today and tonight, heaviest south-central and southeast location. Light to moderate rain or mixed precipitation developing through eastern Colorado and much of Kansas today, likely changing to all snow or snow and ice late in the day or at night.

Light precipitation may linger in the east early Saturday. Dry Sunday.

Precipitation totals averaging 0.50-1.50 inches through southeast areas, 0.25-0.50 and locally heavier, through central areas. Snowfall of 3-6 inches and locally heavier through east Colorado, north and central Kansas during this period. Temperatures average above normal today, somewhat colder tomorrow and Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal during this period. Precipitation below normal west and central areas, near to above normal east.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday from northern RGDS to Parana. Isolated heavier may have occurred. Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Scattered to widely scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers will be in the region today through Sunday. The heaviest activity may favor southern areas but there is at least some chance in the north as well. Temperatures average near to above normal north, near to below normal south.

Episodes of scattered to widely scattered showers in RGDS and Santa Catarina Monday through Wednesday. Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier in Parana during this time. Temperatures average above normal in Parana, near to above normal in RGDS.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered to widely scattered light to locally moderate showers in northern Mato grosso yesterday. Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier elsewhere in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal yesterday.

Forecast...

A few light showers with locally heavier today through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures mostly above normal.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires…

Light showers lingered over northeast areas yesterday. Drier west and south locations. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Scattered thundershowers redevelop through north and east-central areas during the weekend. The west and south part of the area may be drier during this time. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers will be in the region Monday and Tuesday. The heaviest activity might occur in north and east Cordoba and Santa Fe during this time frame. Dry or with only a few light showers during Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires…

Dry or with only very light showers in central and east areas early yesterday. Temperatures averaged below normal.

Forecast...

Dry today. Dry or with only isolated light showers during the weekend.

Temperatures average near to below normal today, above normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. Dry or with only light showers in north and east areas Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Temperatures should be warmer Monday and Tuesday, cooler again Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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