Commodities Market Impact Weather

Dry, Hot Pattern Continues for Brazil, Wet for Argentina

Elaine Shein
By  Elaine Shein , Associate Managing Editor
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OMAHA (DTN) -- A hot, dry weather pattern stressing Brazil's crop outside of Rio Grande do Sul, rains in Argentina and winter storms in the U.S. are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN SOME MIDWEST AREAS

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a moderate to heavy snowstorm to develop from the east-central Plains through the southern and central Midwest region Friday night into Saturday. These areas will likely experience delays to travel and transport during this time frame. The heaviest snow will occur in Missouri, south and central Illinois, and south Indiana. Snowfall of 4 to 8 inches and locally heavier is expected through west-central and south Illinois and south Indiana, and 3 to 6 inches through elsewhere in the central areas. Rain or showers will also spread eastward into the western and northern Delta late today or during tonight. Following this period, conditions will improve again. There's no significant threat to the soft red winter wheat crop during the next 10 days.

PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, the pattern remains favorable for overwintering wheat. There is no damaging cold weather in sight. No significant stress to livestock in the feedlots is expected during this period, although precipitation today into tonight in east Colorado, west and north Kansas will likely include some snow or ice. Precipitation totals will average 0.50 inch to 1.50 inches through southeast areas, and 0.25 to 0.50 inch and locally heavier through central areas. Snowfall of 3 to 6 inches and locally heavier will be seen through east Colorado, north and central Kansas during this period.

In the six- to 10-day outlook, a disturbance is expected to move across from the eastern Plains through the Midwest during the middle to later part of next week. A southern and eastern track is favored with this system. There is some potential for colder weather to follow, but at this point there is still some uncertainty on how cold it will get.

BRAZIL HEAT AND DRYNESS

In Brazil, drier and hotter weather from Parana north to Mato Grosso and northeast to Bahia will continue to stress developing soybeans, corn and sugarcane. This is likely to affect crop yield forecasts for these locations. Rain and thunderstorms will maintain more favorable conditions for crops in Rio Grande do Sul during this period. Thundershowers that occurred Thursday in Parana may have helped ease stress to crops in some fields while others likely remained drier. There's no significant concerns for mature crops and harvesting in Mato Grosso at this time.

RAIN FOR ARGENTINA

In Argentina, mostly favorable conditions for developing corn and soybeans throughout the major growing areas of central Argentina with adequate to surplus soil moisture and no significant hot spells. However, some impact to crops is possible due to wet weather in northeast and central Argentina. This especially affects quality of winter wheat at this time.

ADEQUATE BLACK SEA SNOW COVER

It has recently turned quite cold in portions of southeast Europe and Ukraine with readings falling below zero Fahrenheit. However, these temperatures occurred in areas where snow cover was more than adequate to protect the crop from this cold weather. The weather pattern is cold at times over Eastern Europe and Ukraine, but probably not extremely cold. It is also an active weather pattern with additional chances to add to the protective snow cover.

PERIODIC SHOWERS FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Periodic scattered to widely scattered showers and no significant heat waves should favor developing crops at this time for South Africa. However, more rain might still be needed in some locations.

COLDER IN CHINA

The region has turned colder recently, but it does not appear to have been cold enough to affect dormant winter grains. It does not look to be very cold during the next seven to 10 days, although temperatures will be below normal at times. Precipitation will be mainly through the Yangtze River Valley, while the North China Plain remains seasonally drier.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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Elaine Shein

Elaine Shein
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