DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Feeder Cattle Losses Lead Complex Lower

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN file photo by Russ Quinn)
General Comments

Strong pressure is seen through all livestock trade. The shift lower in feeder cattle futures is posting triple digit losses in all traded contracts through the morning Monday. This pressure is sparking follow through weakness in live cattle and lean hog futures. Corn markets are lower in light trade. March corn futures are 1 1/4 cent lower. Stock markets are lower in light trade. Dow Jones is 202 points lower with Nasdaq down 44 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Moderate losses are seen in nearby live cattle trade with midday pressure holding at 50 to 70 cents per cwt lower. The overall lack of support in feeder cattle futures is putting even more pressure on the entire complex as traders are focusing on late-summer contracts to carry the brunt of the latest push lower in feeder cattle markets. This is pushing August 2019 contracts $1 per cwt lower with long term concerns of beef demand growth while beef supplies may continue to remain readily available. Cash cattle markets remain undeveloped with bids and asking prices yet to be established. Show list distribution and inventory taking will continue to be the main focus Monday. It is not expected that trade will develop until later in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $0.95 higher (select) and up $1.33 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 52 total loads reported (26 loads of choice cuts, 12 loads of select cuts, 6 loads of trimmings, 7 loads of ground beef).

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FEEDER CATTLE:

Sharp triple-digit losses are seen in all feeder cattle contracts with nearby contracts holding losses of $2 per cwt or greater. The overall lack of support in the entire livestock market has quickly and aggressively sparked renewed buyer activity through the entire complex. There is increased volume moving into the market during early week trade, as traders hover near $145 per cwt in limited activity through the Monday session. Little to no new market direction is seen from the live cattle complex, allowing traders to focus on growing uncertainty which is adding even more pressure to the complex.

LEAN HOGS:

Strong market pressure has quickly developed through lean hog futures Monday morning. The focus is seen both in fundamental and technical pressure in nearby contracts with April futures leading the complex lower with triple-digit losses at midday. Even though these losses are well off of early session lows, the break below $70 per cwt has created additional market bearishness to flood the complex. Even with this technical breakdown in the complex, prices are still well above November lows near $67 per cwt, and could bring some additional support at these levels. Cash prices are currently unavailable on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unavailable on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. Pork carcass values are unreleased at this time. Lean hog index for 12/12 is $55.17, down 0.19, with a projected two-day index is $55.13, down 0.04.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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Rick Kment