Commodities Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- A cold to very cold weekend in the U.S., and generally beneficial conditions for South America, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

COLD, MAINLY DRY MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for cold to very cold conditions over the Midwest through the weekend. Temperatures will be well below normal, even for December. The cold will offer some chance for harvest completion due to frozen soils supporting heavy equipment. A drying trend lasting at least five or six days will help improve conditions for the final harvest effort. However, there is a slight risk for snow in the southeast Midwest Saturday or early Sunday as a significant storm tracks by to the south. Longer range, the southern and eastern Midwest and the Delta will have to deal with moderate to heavy precipitation later next week.

SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM

The Southern Plains will have snow, ice and rain Friday into Saturday, which will increase stress to livestock and significantly affect travel and transport. Compared to Thursday, the heavier snow/ice threat has weakened somewhat and shifted a little to the south. Precipitation will continue to recharge soil moisture in southern winter wheat areas and, for the most part, is beneficial.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRIER, HOTTER

Key central Brazil soybean areas in Mato Grosso look to continue somewhat drier and hotter as the heavier activity remains north and east of this location. This favors development at this time. Wet weather in northeast Brazil favors previously too dry areas, although some of the Goias area may be unfavorably wet. Mostly favorable conditions are seen for soybeans and early corn in southern Brazil at this time.

NEW ROUND OF ARGENTINA RAIN

Argentina will have mostly favorable conditions for planting and early development of spring-planted crops and for the harvest of winter wheat. However, there are hints on Friday's weather models of a new heavy rain event for the central agriculture belt next week.

ACTIVE EUROPE PATTERN

An active weather pattern with above-normal temperatures helps to replenish soil moisture in key growing areas of Europe for winter wheat and rapeseed. This includes previously very dry areas in and around Germany. Later in the 10-day period, it is likely to turn cold as the high latitude blocking ridge returns to Scandinavia and easterly winds develop to the south of this ridge. This might mean additional precipitation during the extended range would be snow in and around Germany.

MIXED SOUTH AFRICA PATTERN

South Africa crop areas had another hot day Thursday with only scattered light showers and isolated heavier during the afternoon or at night. A strong and slowly developing cold front should mean scattered thunderstorms followed by cooler weather for the area during the next few days. The heaviest rains should be in north and east areas, but there is at least some chance for rain in the southwest as well. Rain is needed to support sugarcane and early planted maize and to encourage more widespread planting of maize in the drier western growing region.

Elaine Shein can be reached at elaine.shein@dtn.com

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