DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...78 AT KEY WEST FL

LOW WED...30 BELOW ZERO AT DANIEL WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…SAN DIEGO CA 0.50 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair agreement towards the end of the period. The models are in a little better agreement in terms of the track and position of the next southern stream storm system late in this period. However, the European model is still slower and further west with the surface low and upper level trough at day ten. It appears likely that a weak to moderate trough will move over the Midwest region during the middle of the outlook period and intensify as it moves into the eastern US. A significant surface storm will develop between the southeast Midwest and the North Carolina/Virginia area. The US model takes this storm and moves it just southeast of New England at the end of the period. The European model cuts off the upper level trough which causes the surface storm to stall over the Ohio/Pennsylvania/West Virginia area at the end of the period. The forecast for the central/southern plains region and the western Midwest area for the 6-10 day period is issued with some confidence.

The eastern Midwest forecast is more uncertain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): A drying trend lasting at least 5-7 days will help improve conditions for the final harvest effort. Colder temperatures firm the ground to help support the heavier equipment. However there is a slight risk for snow in the southeast Midwest Saturday or early Sunday as a significant storm tracks by to the south.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Snow, an ice storm and heavy rain over the southern plains region Friday into Saturday will increase stress to livestock and significantly impact travel and transport. Precipitation will continue to recharge soil moisture in southern winter wheat areas and for the most part is beneficial.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Key central Brazil soybean areas in Mato Grosso look to continue somewhat drier as the activity remains north and east of this location. This favors development at this time. Wet weather in northeast Brazil favors previously too dry areas, although some of the Goias area may me unfavorably wet. Mostly favorable conditions for soybeans and early corn in southern Brazil at this time.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Mostly favorable conditions for planting and early development of spring planted crops and for the harvest of winter wheat.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): The region should be somewhat drier, somewhat hotter, during the next day or two. Favorable for planting in areas that have adequate soil moisture. Delays continue for areas that are drier, especially in the western maize areas. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers during the weekend period will favor north and east maize areas and most sugarcane areas. The southwestern maize areas may see only scattered light showers. Temperatures turn cooler with this activity.

EUROPE (WINTER GRAINS AND OILSEEDS): An active weather pattern with above normal temperatures helps to replenish soil moisture in key growing areas for winter wheat and rapeseed. This includes previously very dry areas in and around Germany. Later in the ten day period it is likely to turn cold as the high latitude blocking ridge returns to Scandinavia and easterly winds develop to the south of this ridge. This might mean additional precipitation during the extended range would be snow in and around Germany.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal yesterday.

East: Scattered light precipitation, mostly from southern and eastern Illinois eastward, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west, below normal east.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

East: Light snow or snow showers favoring southern and east-central areas today. Mostly dry Friday. Light snow near the Ohio river during Saturday, mainly dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Dry or with only a little light snow or snow showers in southeast areas Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday and Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: A little light snow through southern Nebraska during the night. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures average below normal yesterday morning, somewhat more variable during the afternoon.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers through northeast and central Texas later today or during tonight. Dry elsewhere in the region today. Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms through central and east Texas and southeast Oklahoma during tomorrow into Saturday. Light to moderate rain, ice and snow in west Texas, the Texas Panhandle, west and north Oklahoma Friday into Saturday.

Likely ended as snow and ice these areas. Snowfall of 4 inches or more is likely in the Texas Panhandle, possible in west Texas, west and north Oklahoma.

A significant ice storm is possible in west Texas, southwest and central Oklahoma. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal Sunday, near normal west and below normal east Monday, above normal west and near normal east Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during during this period. Precipitation near to above normal southeast areas, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to above normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a few light showers in eastern areas Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal today, somewhat cooler Friday, warmer again Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered showers occurred mainly from northeast Mato Grosso through central and north Goias and in Bahia during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Forecast...

Episodes of showers and thundershowers from northern Mato Grosso through central and northern Goias and western Bahia today through Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures near to above normal west and south, near to below normal northeast.

Scattered showers will continue to favor northern areas Sunday through Tuesday. A few scattered showers may also occur in central areas during this time. Drier in the south. Temperatures near to above normal west and south, near normal northeast.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Showers and rain through northern and western Cordoba yesterday and also overnight last night. Mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal yesterday.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a little light rain northwest areas today. Mostly dry tomorrow. Dry or with only a few light showers favoring south and west areas Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during Sunday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Monday. Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Mostly dry or with only isolated very light showers during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in western areas today. Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier Saturday or Saturday night. Temperatures average below normal today and early Friday, warmer in the west later Friday, warm Saturday.

Light to moderate showers favoring central and east areas Sunday. Showers and thundershowers favoring western and northern areas Monday. Drier Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, somewhat cooler Tuesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

Joel Burgio