DTN Closing Livestock Comments

GENERAL COMMENTS:

Cash cattle interest is very limited with bids and asking prices generally quiet at this point in the week. Bids are expected to be more readily available through the day Wednesday as both sides desire to lock down cash cattle business before they go home Wednesday night. The option remains for both sides to come back Friday after the Thanksgiving break, but all parties are expected to try to avoid the scenario. According to the closing report, the national hog base is $0.51 lower compared with the Prior Day settlement ($46.00-$52.50, weighted average $51.27). Corn futures are lower in light activity. December futures were 1 cent lower. Dow Jones Index is 551 points lower with Nasdaq down 119 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Live cattle futures remain mixed in narrow range with limited nearby pressure focusing on the aggressive outside market pressure and lack of underlying short-term support in the complex ($0.45 lower to $0.20 higher). December live cattle futures led the complex lower with traders focusing on aggressive market moves outside the agricultural commodity markets. The pressure was not able to break through any support levels, as markets hovered in a narrow range. Deferred contacts posted narrow gains with very limited buying activity trickling into the sluggish market. Beef cut-outs: mixed, $0.14 lower (select, $198.43) and up $0.70 (choice, $214.09) with good demand and light offerings, 143 loads (84 loads of choice cuts, 34 loads of select cuts, 5 load of trimmings, 19 loads of coarse grinds).

WEDNESDAY'S CASH CATTLE CALL:

Steady. Trade activity remains undeveloped, although both sides are expected to quickly jump into the market through the day Wednesday in order to get business done before the Thanksgiving break.

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle futures shifted lower in limited interest ($0.12 to $0.40 lower). Firm market losses early in the session seem to have settled down significantly with trade moving off of session lows with front-month January posting a 40-cent loss. The rest of the feeder cattle complex was contained in a narrow range from 12 to 70 cents per cwt lower with very sluggish market activity developing across the complex. Very little direction is expected through the end of the week, given limited trade volume likely. CME cash feeder index for 11/19 is $147.40, up $0.31.

LEAN HOGS:

Mixed trade developed in lean hog futures with strong pressure pushing nearby contracts lower ($2.05 lower to $0.42 higher). December contracts led the entire complex lower with a $2.05-per-cwt loss based on sellers quickly backing away from strong market gains over the last couple of days. But the sharp triple-digit losses in nearby contracts have done nothing more than put a dent in the market rally that has been developing over the past few sessions. Outside market pressure has added to the market weakness Tuesday and is limiting sharp losses to nearby contract months. Pork values posted aggressive losses following triple-digit losses in most primals. Belly markets led the market lower with an $11-per-cwt tumble. Pork cutout values fell $3.09 per cwt, moving to $65.72 per cwt. CME cash lean index for 11/15 $59.10 down $0.73. DTN Projected lean index for 11/16 $58.51 down $0.63.

WEDNESDAY'S CASH HOG CALL:

$1 lower to $1 higher. Mixed prices are expected early Wednesday morning with the wide price range still limiting overall direction in the market. Most bids are expected steady to weak in pre-holiday buying. Slaughter numbers are expected to be seen at 475,000 head Wednesday morning. Saturday runs are expected to be seen at 361,000 head.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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