DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and northwest Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing mild temperatures over western Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska and eastern pacific extending into the western U.S. A trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located near Bermuda.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 5 days. Fair agreement days 6-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada and a strong blocking ridge over Greenland. This will produce mild temperatures over western Canada, variable central, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific extending into the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the interior western U.S. A trough over the interior eastern U.S. and some ridging along and off the east coast of the U.S. This will be a rather dry pattern for much of the central U.S. during the outlook period as gulf moisture is unable to move northward due to the ridge to the west and the trough to the east. The main storm track will be along the gulf and east coasts. Temperatures will be milder in the Plains under the ridge, variable in the Midwest between the ridge to the west and the trough to the east.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal. The northern Plains variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern Plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Precipitation mostly below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...86 AT HOLLYWOOD FL

LOW THU...12 BELOW ZERO AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…CHARLOTTE NC 1.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the first few days of the outlook period, fair agreement during the last couple of days.

I favor today's US model.

What may be the last of the very cold surface highs in the series is shown along the east coast as we start the 6-10 day period next Wednesday. This high moves off the coast next Thursday and Friday while a short wave trough moves across the northern plains and into the western Midwest. Southwest flow behind the departing high and ahead of the advancing trough should lead to warmer temperatures in the Midwest region, especially in the west but possibly in eastern areas as well. The trough weakens somewhat as it moves through the Great Lakes region and into the northeast at the end of this period. The air mass behind this trough does not appear, at this time, to be very cold. The passage of the trough may mean some light precipitation but nothing that appears to serious. The central/south plains region also appears drier and somewhat warmer during this period. Although a weak southern branch trough is indicated that might mean showers and thundershowers through east and south Texas area.

The strong north Atlantic ridge remains on the mean maps at 8-10 days today, both models. The strong trough that is expected to deepen over southeast Canada during the next 1-5 days is shown shifting north and somewhat to the west during the 6-10 day period, allowing for the warmer west to southwest flow over the Midwest and central plains regions.

The European model does depict a secondary trough that moves across the Rockies, the southern plains and through the middle Miss river valley at the end of the period. If verified this might mean a little heavier showers or rain for the southeast plains, the Delta and the southern Midwest but nothing that looks too heavy...even on this model.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Mostly dry weather and a somewhat more variable temperature pattern will favor the remaining harvest in the western Midwest.

Snow, ice and rain that fell Thursday night and Friday will maintain a slower pace for late fall field work in the eastern Midwest. There is some chance that conditions in the eastern Midwest will improve with time.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN,SOYBEANS): More favorable harvest weather in the northern Plains.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Episodes of colder weather slows winter wheat development. Soil moisture supplies are quite favorable.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT): Mostly favorable weather for maturing and harvesting wheat.

More rain would benefit summer crops in the northeast. There appears to be some chance for beneficial shower activity in the summer crop belt of east-central Australia early next week.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Favorable weather for developing soybeans in central Brazil.

Episodes of scattered thunderstorms and mostly warm temperatures will favor early planted soybeans and corn in southern Brazil while causing some delays to fieldwork, at times.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/SUNFLOWER/WHEAT): Recent heavy rains in central Argentina will disrupt and delay corn and soybean planting and may force some replanting. A somewhat more favorable weather pattern for seasonal fieldwork in Cordoba, Santa Fe and northwest Buenos Aires during the next 5 to 7 days.

Additional rains in La Pampa, south and central Buenos Aires will lead to delays to the planting of summer crops and the harvesting of winter wheat during this period.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): The hot, mostly dry period during the weekend period. Highs in the 90s to low 100s F in maize areas during this time frame. A cold front passage is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms to the region Monday into Tuesday along with a break in the heat wave. Rainfall is needed to support early planted crops in the east and to condition soils for planting in the west.

EUROPE: Winter crop prospects have greatly improved over much of northern Europe following beneficial rain over the past two weeks.

UKRAINE/WEST AND SOUTH RUSSIA: Dry, warm weather encouraged a rapid pace of summer crop harvesting and accelerated winter wheat development

CHINA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Dry weather across most of eastern China facilitated the completion of wheat and rapeseed planting. More rainfall would be welcome to boost moisture reserves prior to the crops going dormant, especially north and west growing areas.

INDIA (WHEAT/RAPESEED): Seasonably dry weather across most of India continued to promote winter (rabi) crop planting, although wheat sowing was delayed in the north due to the slow pace of cotton and rice harvesting. Showers were generally limited to the south and southeast (Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala), boosting moisture supplies for rabi rice and groundnut establishment.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry or with only a little light precipitation through northeast areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday.

East: Light to locally moderate snow, freezing rain and rain during the past 24 hours. Heaviest precipitation totals through eastern areas. Heaviest storm total snow occurred in southwest and central Illinois. Temperatures averaged below to well below normal.

Forecast...

West: Light precipitation, up to 0.25 inch melted, late today or during tonight and early Saturday morning favoring northwest, central and east areas. Drier during Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal today, colder again during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

East: Mostly dry today. Light precipitation favoring north and west-central areas tonight or during Saturday. A little light precipitation southeast areas during Sunday. Temperatures below normal during this period.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal.

Precipitation should average near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal west, near to below normal east.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Dry or with only a little light precipitation during Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures average above normal today, colder again during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and near to below normal east Monday and Tuesday, mostly above normal Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal.

Forecast...

Mostly dry today. Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms develop in the south and spread north during the weekend. Temperatures average above normal today and Saturday, below to near normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers were reported in the region during the past 24 hours. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast...

Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers during the next 5 days.

Temperatures return to more seasonal levels.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires

Light to locally moderate showers occurred in north-central and northeast Buenos Aires during the past 24 hours. Little elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures averaged near to above normal west and northeast, near to below normal southeast.

Forecast...

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring southwest areas today.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight and Saturday.

Mainly dry Sunday. Thunderstorm activity may be locally heavy while coverage will vary from place to place. Temperatures above normal today, cooler during the weekend.

Mostly dry Monday, Tuesday and the daytime hours of Wednesday. Scattered showers and thundershowers Wednesday night. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

La Pampa, South Buenos Aires

Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast...

Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring tonight or during Saturday. Drier Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, cooler again during the weekend period.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered to widely scattered thundershowers during Wednesday. Temperatures average above normal Monday and Tuesday but should turn cooler during Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(BAS)

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