DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow futures down 180. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 7 higher. Energies are lower with crude down $0.25. Livestock trade is lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $13.70.

CORN

Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with the recent range remaining intact after the excitement yesterday. Ethanol futures continued to erode falling to 1.25 this morning. Snow is slowing remaining harvest in the west. The big surprise on the WASDE report was the sharp rise in world stock due to adjustment made in China due to changes in calculations on how they figured production, with stocks rising to 307.51 million metric tons from 159.4 but it shouldn't have a material effect on world trade since China doesn't typically export or import. The domestic numbers tightened with yield falling to 178.9 BPA, and production to 14.626 billion bushels, and carryout at 1.736 billion. On the December chart support is at the 10-, 20-, and 100-day moving averages in the $3.67-3.69 area with resistance the recent $3.79 high.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 5 to 6 cents higher with trade turning back higher during the day session. Meal is flat to $1.00 higher, and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. The WASDE report showed yield down a bushel to 52.1 BPA, but carryout was raised to 955 million on slow exports on production of 4.608 billion bushels. World stocks edged slightly higher to 112.08 million metric tons. Crush margins remain strong with the meal still holding up well. On the January chart support is at the 100-day at $8.77 which we are testing at midday with the 20-day further support at $8.74, and resistance at the Friday high at $8.92.

WHEAT

Wheat trade is a dime lower in Kansas City at midday, Chicago to 8 cents lower at midday with wheat looking to retest the lower end of the range yet again after finding little fresh supportive news on the WASDE report. The firmer dollar continues to limit upside. The WASDE report showed domestic carryout at 949 million down slightly from last month with world numbers at 266.71, up from 260.71 last month. Russian wheat continues to move into the export market at a very rapid pace, but U.S. wheat is picking up more as well now. On the DecemberKansas City chart, we have support at the lower Bollinger Band at $4.82, and resistance the 10-day at $4.99.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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