DTN Midday Grain Comments

Grains Mixed at Midday

David M Fiala
By  David Fiala , DTN Contributing Analyst
(DTN photo by Nick Scalise)

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow futures up 10. The interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 30 higher. Energies are lower with crude down $0.45. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle higher and hogs lower. Precious metals are lower with gold down $3.00.


Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with trade remaining rangebound in pre-report action. Ethanol futures remain flat to slightly lower keeping the margin pressure intact. Weekly export sales were improved at 701,500 metric tons. Snow is slowing remaining harvest in the west. The monthly USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) is expected to have the corn yield drop to 180.0 bushels per acre versus 180.7 on the October report; the range of estimates is 178.2-181.4. The corn carryover is expected to come in at 1.781 billion bushels versus 1.813 on the October report; the range of expectations is wide at 1.566-2.105 billion. The world carryover estimate is at 198.3 million metric tons versus 198.2 mmt a month ago. On the December chart support is at the 10-, 20-, and 100-day moving averages in the $3.67-3.68 area with resistance the recent $3.78 1/2 high.


Soybean trade is 3 to 4 cents lower with light pre-report selling. Meal is flat to $1.00 lower, and oil is 20 to 30 points lower. There is limited fresh news ahead of the report with the market finding support on export optimism while the carryover stocks continue to weigh on the complex. Weekly export sales were poor again for beans at 388,400 metric tons, better for products at 255,100 metric tons of meal, and 22,400 of oil. The WASDE yield estimate is expected to be at 53 bushels per acre versus 53.1 on the October report. The trade is expecting the carryover to increase to 900 million bushels versus 895 on the October report; the range of estimates is 832-984 million. The world carryover is expected to be at 96.9 million metric tons versus 96.7 a month ago. On the January chart support is at the 100-day at $8.77 which we are testing at midday with the 20-day further support at $8.74, and resistance at the Friday high at $8.92.


Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with trade still struggling to maintain much direction. Weekly export sales were stronger again at 661,200 metric tons. The firmer dollar continues to limit upside. The average trade guess for the U.S. carryover on Thursday is at 966 million bushels versus 956 last month; the range of estimates is 925-1.025. The world wheat carryover is expected to be at 275 million metric tons versus 274.9 million tons a month ago. Russian wheat continues to move into the export market at a very rapid pace. On the December Kansas City chart we are above the 10-day moving average at 5.01, with resistance at the 20-day at $5.07.

David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


David Fiala