DTN Midday Livestock Comments

General Comments

Pressure seen in cattle trade has continued to erode potential support moving into the complex. This may add some additional uncertainty to the complex with traders looking for longer-term market direction. Hog futures are mixed to mostly higher following strong early morning gains. Corn markets are lower in light trade. December corn futures are 1 cent lower. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 353 points higher while Nasdaq is up 155 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

Moderate losses have held in all live cattle futures at midday with early 2019 contracts nearly $1 per cwt lower as limited interest is seen. The renewed pressure in feeder cattle trade has added to the lack of buyer support through most live cattle, although traders are also starting to take into account the most recent shift in beef values seen in the morning reports. Very limited trade is expected through the end of the session with most traders looking for additional longer-term direction. But this may take weeks to develop at this point, and keep prices in the current market range through most of November. Cash cattle interest is starting to slowly improve with a few bids seen through the morning. Live bids are seen at $112 per cwt while dressed bids have redeveloped at $180 per cwt. Asking prices are still holding at $118 live and $185 dressed. It is uncertain if actual trade will develop through the day, although most activity is likely to be pushed off until late in the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are lower, $1.27 lower (select) and down $0.20 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 68 total loads reported (39 loads of choice cuts, 17 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 11 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

Feeder cattle markets have steadily eroded through the morning despite holding early mixed price levels. This has posted triple-digit losses in most nearby contracts with January through April contracts holding a $1 per cwt loss. Overall trade volume through the entire feeder cattle market remains limited as traders are steadily shifting toward the lower end of the wide sideways trading range seen over the last two months. The concern that recent market shifts in outside markets will have longer-term impact on beef demand and production costs is still the main driver of the eroding market structure through early November.

LEAN HOGS:

Lean hog futures remain mixed as the initial surge of buyer support has slowed late Wednesday morning. This is allowing prices to remain mostly higher, but trade in a range from 37 cents lower to 70 cents higher. The pullback from session highs in front month December contracts has quickly cooled any sense of renewed commercial buyer support as some traders still try to bounce back from the sharp losses Tuesday. The market still remains generally weak, but the potential for additional aggressive losses over the next couple of weeks remains limited. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the National Direct morning cash hog report. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 220 loads selling on the morning report. Pork carcass values fell $0.25 per cwt at $73.83 per cwt. Lean hog index for 11/5 is at $64.00 down 0.08 with a projected two-day index of 63.72, down 0.28.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com

(CZ)

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