DTN Early Word Opening Livestock

Meat Futures Set for Firmer Undertone

(DTN file photo)

Cattle: Steady-$2 HR Futures: 10-30 HR Live Equiv: $137.95 +1.37*

Hogs: Steady-$1 LR Futures: Mixed Lean Equiv: $ 83.40 - .03*

* based on formula estimating live cattle equivalent of gross packer revenue

** based on formula estimating lean hog equivalent of gross packer revenue

GENERAL COMMENTS:

The cattle trade will not be tested Tuesday with bids and asking prices not well defined.

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BULL SIDE BEAR SIDE
1)

New feedlot showlists circulated on Monday were generally smaller than last week, suggesting producers should have plenty of leverage as they move to negotiated cash.

1)

The Oct. 1 on feed confirmed on Friday represented the largest fall bunk line since the data series began in 1996.

2)

Beef cutouts closed sharply higher Monday, suggesting Sioux City will go far in making manageable late-year barrow and gilt supplies in the weeks ahead.

2)

This week's hog slaughter could surge to as much as 2.553 million head.

3)

Lean futures seem to be technically oversold and due for some serious chart corrections.

3)

The next major step in late-year meat demand will move from red meat demand as retailers and wholesale begin to concentrate on features tied to Thanksgiving.

4)

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OTHER MARKET SENSITIVE NEWS

CATTLE:(Financial Times) -- The EU is set to hold talks with the US to end a decades-long row over restrictions on beef imports into the European market, after US farmers complained they were not getting the promised benefits of a previous deal.

The EU Council on Friday said it had authorised negotiations aimed at helping US farmers take a greater share of an existing 45,000 ton import quota that is available to non-EU beef farmers.

The talks are a response to US complaints that other countries are using up too much of the quota, which was created to end a legal battle between the EU and US over Europe's ban on hormones that are widely used by US cattle farmers.

The quota, although it only applies to beef that does not violate the EU's hormone ban, was part of a settlement the two sides reached at the World Trade Organization in 2009, and that they updated in 2014.

The Council, which brings together representatives from the EU's 28 member countries, underlined that the talks would look at "a country-specific allocation" for the US from the existing 45,000 ton quota. But it also underlined that the negotiations would not lead to any overall increase in the amount of non-EU beef imported into the bloc.

"The aim of the negotiations is to find a mutually satisfactory solution in line with WTO rules", the EU Council said in a statement.

Under the 2009 settlement, the intention was that much of the annual duty-free quota would be taken up by US farmers, with Brussels saying at the time it would provide additional access "to the EU market for the type of high quality beef traditionally exported by the US".

But the US has frequently complained it has gained few benefits from the deal, with the quota increasingly used by farmers from other countries, notably Uruguay, Argentina.

John Harrington can be reached at harringtonsfotm@gmail.com

Follow him on Twitter @feelofthemarket

(BAS)

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