DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This is producing mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, mild/cool in central Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough in the southwest U.S. A ridge over the Rockies and Plains and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The center of subtropical high pressure is located over the northern Yucatan peninsula.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 6 days. Fair agreement days 7-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central Canada. A weak ridge over northeast Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska extending into the western U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic.

This pattern will allow for increased precipitation in the Midwest late in the period along the boundary zone between the trough to the west and the ridge to the east. Temperatures will be variable, milder out ahead of systems, cooler behind them. This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation near to below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation near to below normal. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...92 AT THERMAL CA

LOW MON...6 AT MOUNT WASHINGTON NH

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TUCSON AZ 0.06 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first couple of days of the outlook period, poor agreement during the next couple of days, fair agreement during the last day of the period. I favor a compromise between the models today.

A moderate upper level trough will move from over the Midwest to the northeast US early in the period before weakening and lifting northward into eastern Canada. Today's US model shows a new trough dropping southward over the Rockies and then moving across the north-central US and the western Midwest while deepening during the middle to late part of the period. The European model is somewhat slower and not as deep with this developing north-central US/Western Midwest trough during this time frame. The Midwest region continues on the drier side with moderating temperatures at least two days into the 6-10 day period, possible 3 or 4 days into the period if today's European model is more correct. The US model would bring the rain chance in sooner and also bring back somewhat cooler weather sooner as well. I support a drier Midwest region 2 to 3 days into the period and then would look for increasing shower activity.

The central and southern plains region would also continue on the drier side for 2-3 days into the outlook period. After that some increase in shower activity is possible. However, in this area the chances for rainfall may favor the east while the west and possibly the central areas stay drier.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Open weather for the harvest in the Midwest for the next couple of days. Some slow downs possible at the end of this week due to light rain northwest and southeast areas but more favorable harvest weather will continue otherwise. No significant concerns for harvest activity during the weekend but some fields may be damp due to drizzle or very light showers.

NORTHERN PLAINS (CORN, SOYBEANS): Some light rain or showers through the eastern Dakotas may cause delays, at times, to harvest activity. However, nothing that looks to be overly concerning. A more favorable period for harvesting elsewhere in the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Wet weather will cause further delays to the wheat planting effort in southern areas. Showers slow planting progress in Kansas during Wednesday but otherwise a more favorable period for planting lasting into or through next Monday.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Fog, rain and cool conditions during the next 48 hours will be unfavorable for open boll cotton and harvesting. Quality concerns continue. After that some improvement in conditions is possible as sunny weather redevelops and temperatures turn warmer.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Wet conditions may delay field work early this week after light to moderate rains during the weekend period. Rain this week looks to favor the Louisiana and southern Miss areas while key growing areas north of there may stay drier.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (CANOLA,WHEAT): Mainly dry conditions during the next 3 to 5 days. Improving conditions for the delayed harvest. Cooler, unsettled weather after that may cause some delays.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Increasing shower activity from Parana northward to Mato Grosso will favor early planted crops while causing some delay to seasonal field work. Drier weather and adequate soil moisture favors planting and development of crops in RGDS during this period.

ARGENTINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): A variable temperature pattern and episodes of scattered rains will favor development of early planted corn and any early soybean planting in the central agri belt at this time. Mostly favorable weather for planting. Rainfall may be heaviest through La Pampa and southern Buenos Aires which is more sunflower and wheat than corn or soybeans.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent shower activity has improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in West Australia and through the southeast areas of Australia. However, these areas have again turned drier.

Increasing shower and thundershower activity in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely too late to significantly improve the winter wheat crop but the added rains should help improve soil moisture and irrigation for sorghum and cotton.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have improved conditions for planting in key sugarcane areas and in the east and some central areas of the maize triangle. Western maize areas could use more rain to encourage increased planting at this time. The region should turn drier and somewhat hotter during the next few days.

EUROPE: Dry weather with above to well above normal temperatures through west and central Europe during this past week. Portions of France, Germany and western Poland are in need of rain to ensure favorable moisture for prewinter development of winter grains and oilseeds. Significant precipitation during the next 5 days is mostly for southeast to east-central Europe. Longer range there is some chance for colder temperatures and added precipitation in west and central Europe during this coming weekend and early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal for the morning lows yesterday, near to mostly above normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today and Wednesday. Light rain or showers north, a few sprinkles or light showers south, during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal west and near to below normal east today, near normal Wednesday, above to near normal Thursday.

Dry or with only a few showers or some drizzle northeast to east-central areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. A few light showers or a little light rain during Sunday, favoring northern and eastern areas. Temperatures average above to well above normal west, near to above normal east.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures average near normal today, below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Chance for a little light rain or showers through southeast areas early Friday. Mainly dry or with only a few light showers Saturday. Sprinkles or light showers during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to above normal, due mostly to increasing precipitation during the later part of the period.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal through north and central areas, below normal through the south.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Rain and showers move through southern Oklahoma and north Texas during Wednesday. Light to locally moderate showers through western and areas of the region during this time. Light showers east, drier central and west, early Thursday. Mainly dry later Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal during this period, although it may turn somewhat cooler towards the end of the period. Precipitation near to below normal.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Dry or with only isolated shower activity during the past 24 hours.

Temperatures averaged near to below normal north, above normal south, yesterday.

Forecast: Increasing coverage of scattered showers and thundershowers favoring western and southern areas during the next few days. The activity may become moderate to locally heavy. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers Friday and Saturday. Somewhat drier during Sunday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 84 to 90F.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring Parana today and Wednesday. Showers favoring RGDS during Thursday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Wednesday, above normal Thursday.

Light to moderate showers and thundershowers north, drier south, during Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal during this period.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

Copyright 2018 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.