DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and a trough over central and eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This is a producing warm/hot temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific extending into the northwest U.S. A weak trough over the southwest U.S. extending into the north-central U.S. A flat ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough over the northwest atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located just off the east coast of Florida.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a weak ridge over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada and the polar vortex over north-central and northeast Canada extending into northern Greenland. This will produce mild/warm temperatures in western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A weak ridge over the western U.S. and a trough over the central and eastern U.S. This trough is expected to lead to some increasing precipitation in the central U.S. late in the period. Temperatures will be milder out ahead of systems cooler behind them.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Precipitation below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10. The northern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Precipitation below normal during the next 5 days, near to above normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 7 days, near to above normal days 8-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...93 AT WINTER HAVEN FL

LOW THU...18 AT WEST YELLOWSTONE MY AND KALISPELL MT AND TOMAHAWK WI

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…HOUSTON INTCNTL TX 1.02 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. I am using a blend between the models during periods when the differences are enough to warrant a call.

Early in the outlook period a weak to somewhat strong surface high moves through the Great Lakes region and the northeast US while a weak trough and surface low moves across the northern plains and the Canadian Prairies. We also note a southern branch system spreading rain through the Gulf coast states during this time frame. This southern stream trough will steal the available moisture and limit the potential for the northern plains trough to produce any meaningful precipitation. The northeast high will delay any potential for warmer temperatures over the eastern Midwest region.

Later in the period a secondary trough moves across to the eastern Canadian Prairies before dropping southward over the Midwest and drifting over the eastern Midwest to the end of the period. This new trough may lead to an increased chance for precipitation in the Manitoba/Ontario area of Canada and over especially the central and eastern Midwest region. However, it appears that the highest risk for heavier precipitation would hold off until the system is moving east of the Midwest region. The middle Atlantic and the northeast US could see the bulk of this precipitation chance. Temperatures would turn somewhat colder behind the system but it does not look to be as cold, relative to normal, as systems that have been in the area more recently.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): Major impact to crops from Hurricane Michael especially in Georgia due to heavy rains and very strong winds.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Wet weather early this week and again late in the week will disrupt harvest activities. Rain may also impact at least the southern half of this region next week, possibly the entire region.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Drier weather during the next 7 days will help improve conditions for mature crops and harvesting in most areas of the Midwest region. Longer range there is some question as to whether this drier period would continue, especially over eastern areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): A drier weather pattern during the next 7-10 days will improve conditions for the harvest which has been disrupted by rain and snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Wet conditions slow planting but provide abundant soil moisture for pre winter development of the crop. Favorably drier weather for north and central areas will allow for improved planting progress these locations. Additional rains in the south may mean further delays.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (CANOLA,WHEAT): Mainly dry conditions during the next 5 to 7 days, possibly longer. Improving conditions for the delayed harvest.

Temperatures average above to near normal in western areas during the next 7 days, somewhat more variable in the eastern areas.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Light rain or showers today. Drier during the weekend period. Temperatures near to below normal. Showers early next week, heaviest south and east areas. This activity mainly for Tuesday into Wednesday. After Wednesday the region may see improving weather with drier conditions and warmer temperatures.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Episodes of scattered showers and thundershowers will favor development of early planted crops from MGDS and southern Goias southward through RGDS during the next 3 to 6 days. Some delay to planting due to rain, at times. Mato Grosso should see periods when scattered afternoon thundershowers would occur but with mainly above normal temperatures more rain would be welcome.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Episodes of showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in West Australia and through the southeast areas of Australia. Increasing shower and thundershower activity in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland is likely too late to significantly improve the winter wheat crop but the added rains should help improve soil moisture and irrigation for sorghum and cotton.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE/SUGARCANE): Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures have improved conditions for planting in key sugarcane areas and in the east and some central areas of the maize triangle. Western maize areas could use more rain to encourage increased planting at this time.

EUROPE: Despite the mention of showers and some rain in the region recently the long term soil moisture supplies are still low in many locations. Portions of France, Germany and western Poland are in need of rain to ensure favorable moisture for prewinter development of winter grains and oilseeds. The chance for significant rainfall in these areas during the next 10 days remains fairly limited.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA: Prospects for winter grains in west and south Russia and in Ukraine are mixed at this time. Recent rainfall has provided for favorable top soil moisture in the region. However, longer term rainfall deficits continue due to periods of hot/dry weather this spring and summer.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry yesterday. Light rain or drizzle developed overnight, favoring west and north areas. Temperatures were variable for the morning lows, above normal for the afternoon highs, yesterday.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures averaged below normal, mostly due to below normal morning lows.

Forecast...

West: Sprinkles and very light showers favoring eastern areas today, mostly during the morning hours. Mainly dry for the weekend. Temperatures average above normal today, near to below normal Saturday, below normal early Sunday, warmer later in the day... especially western areas.

Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Dry early Wednesday, chance for showers late in the day or at night ... favoring south and west locations. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

East: Chance for very light showers north and a little light rain near the Ohio river today into tonight. Light precipitation northeast areas during Saturday, dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, near normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, near to below normal east. Precipitation near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through the Texas Panhandle, southwest and central Oklahoma and north-central Texas during the past 24 hours. A little light rain or drizzle elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures averaged above normal north, near to below normal central and south.

Forecast: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thundershowers through east and south Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas during today. Mostly dry tomorrow and Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal north and central areas, below to near normal south, during this period.

Mostly dry Monday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers with some heavier possible through southern areas Tuesday into Wednesday. Scattered light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday, mostly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to vary somewhat during this period. Precipitation near to below normal north and west, near to above normal southeast.

BRAZIL SOYBEANS AND GRAINS

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms were reported in southern Goias, southern and west-central areas of MGDS during the past 24 hours. Mainly dry from northern MGDS through Mato Grosso during this time.

Temperatures averaged above normal. Highs mostly 90 to 100F yesterday.

Forecast: Scattered showers and thundershowers favoring MGDS and Goias again today. Scattered to widely scattered showers and thundershowers in Mato Grosso Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average above normal in Mato Grosso during this period, near to above normal in MGDS and Goias.

Scattered afternoon or evening thundershowers favoring Mato Grosso again Monday. Scattered thundershowers in MGDS and Goias during Tuesday. Scattered thundershowers favoring MGDS and possibly southern Mato Grosso during Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal during this period.

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers were indicated yesterday from extreme northwest RGDS through western Santa Catarina and into southwest Parana. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged near to mostly above normal.

Forecast: Chance for light to locally moderate showers in southern and western Parana today. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures average near to above normal during this period.

Dry or with only a few light showers developing in RGDS during Monday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers in Parana Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. Little in RGDS during these days. Temperatures average above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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