DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU…SANFORD FL 94 DEGREES

LOW THU...RAWLINGS WY 11 DEGREES

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM THURSDAY…4.69 INCHES AT COLUMBIA SC

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period. The main features will be a ridge over the western U.S. and a trough in the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. The trough will be far enough to the east to prevent the flow of gulf moisture northward into the central U.S. This will allow for a much drier weather pattern to develop, which will favor the harvest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: Post-tropical cyclone Michael was located 185 miles east-northeast of Norfolk Virginia. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph, and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move away from the United States Friday and move rapidly across the open Atlantic Ocean tonight through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 65 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected Friday and tonight as the post-tropical cyclone moves across the Atlantic.

Moisture from tropical storm Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the Southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

SOUTHEAST U.S. (COTTON, PEANUTS):

There was major impact to crops from Hurricane Michael especially in Georgia due to heavy rains and very strong winds.

DELTA (COTTON, SOYBEAN, WHEAT):

Wet weather early next week will disrupt harvest activities.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS):

Recent heavy rains will delay and disrupt the harvest and is unfavorable for maturing crops especially in the western and northern Midwest. Quality may suffer. A drier weather pattern appears to be setting up for next week as the mean trough shifts eastward.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS):

A drier weather pattern during the next seven to 10 days will improve conditions for the harvest, which has been disrupted by rain and snow.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT):

Wet conditions slow planting but provide abundant soil moisture for pre-winter development of the crop. Additional rain will move through southern areas during the weekend, the moisture associated with post-tropical storm Sergio.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (CANOLA,WHEAT):

Unsettled weather on Friday and Saturday will continue to delay the remaining harvest. Drier weather is expected next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON):

Wet weather is unfavorable to maturing cotton and the early harvest. Heavy rain associated with post tropical storm Sergio is expected to impact the region on Saturday. This will be followed by cold and unsettled weather early next week.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN):

More rain would benefit soybean planting and development in the Mato Grosso. Favorable conditions for planting and development in Parana.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM):

Episodes of showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in West Australia. Rain has also occurred in New South Wales during the past week. This favors reproductive to filling wheat in the south part of the state, but it is likely too late to help the drought-reduced crop in the north or wheat in south Queensland. Showers in northern NSW and south Queensland will improve conditions for planting sorghum and cotton.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE):

A recent dry weather pattern featuring above normal temperatures may delay the planting effort. Scattered thundershowers may develop through southeast and central maize areas during the weekend. If verified, this would allow for more widespread planting in some eastern growing areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Dry conditions. Temperatures much below normal.

East: Dry conditions. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast...

West: Some light rain over southern areas Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Some light rain over southern areas Sunday. Dry weather Monday through Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

East: Light rain Friday. Dry weather Saturday. Light rain Sunday. Some light to moderate rain along the Ohio River Monday. Dry elsewhere. Dry weather Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry weather Friday. Dry conditions or just some light precipitation Saturday. Dry weather Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures variable. Precipitation below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Dry conditions. Temperatures much below normal.

Forecast: Dry conditions or just a little light rain Friday. Heavy rain over Oklahoma and north Texas on Saturday. Mostly dry elsewhere. Light to moderate rain or some mixed precipitation in the north Sunday. Dry weather Monday through Wednesday. Dry conditions or just some light rain in the south Thursday. Temperatures below to much below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures near to below normal. Precipitation below normal.

Michael Palmerino can be reached at michael.palmerino@dtn.com

(SK)

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