USDA Reports Summary

By DTN Staff

This article was originally posted at 11:03 a.m. CDT. It was updated at 11:30 a.m. CDT.

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OMAHA -- USDA on Thursday called for record soybean production and large ending stocks in its October round of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and Crop Production reports.

Farmers are expected to harvest 53.1 bushels per acre of soybeans, up from last month's 52.8 bpa forecast. Overall production, at 4.69 billion bushels, is slightly lower than last month's estimate. Both are within the range of pre-report expectations.

New-crop (2018-19) soybean ending stocks were pegged at 885 million bushels on higher beginning stocks. USDA left soybean use unchanged.

On corn, USDA estimated national average yields at 180.7 bpa with production at 14.8 billion bushels. While that's down slightly from last month's estimate of 181.3 bpa and 14.83 bb, respectively, it'd still be the highest yield on record and second highest level of production.

This month's Crop Production forecast is noteworthy because it becomes statistically more accurate.

Thursday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bullish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were neutral for corn, bearish for soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat, he said.

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

Because DTN and other news outlets no longer have pre-release access to the reports, instead of one story, we are now sending a series of updates with each including more information as our analysts and reporters digest and analyze the new numbers.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

-- Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

-- World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

SOYBEANS

The U.S. soybean crop was projected at 4.69 billion bushels, down slightly from last month and lower than the pre-report average estimate. Still, soybean yield was bumped up to 53.1 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bpa from the September estimate of 52.8 bpa.

USDA lowered harvested soybean acres to 88.3 million acres, down 600,000 acres from the September projection.

Ending stocks were projected at 885 million bushels for soybeans, up 40 mb from last month's forecast. USDA increased carryover from the 2017-18 crop by 43 mb, but dropped production by 3 mb to bump up the 2018-19 ending stocks.

Despite the export battles, USDA held pat on soybean exports for the 2018-19 crop at 2.06 billion bushels, the same as the September forecast.

The average farm-gate price for soybeans remained at a forecast of $8.60 a bushel with a wide range stretching from $7.35 to $9.85 a bushel.

Globally, USDA raised soybean carryover from the old crop by 1.91 million metric tons, which translated into boosting the ending stocks for the 2018-19 crop as well by 1.78 mmt. USDA did not change production estimates for major exporters such as Brazil (120.5 mmt) and Argentina (57 mmt).

CORN

USDA expects farmers to harvest 81.8 million acres of corn, down slightly from the agency's previous estimate and 1% below 2017. When combined with its record national average yield projection of 180.7 bpa, production comes out at 14.78 billion bushels.

New-crop (2018-19) domestic ending stocks came in at 1.813 bb, which incorporates the 138 million extra bushels from September's Grain Stocks report as higher beginning stocks as well as the slightly lower production estimate. USDA lowered feed and residual use by 25 mb while boosting exports by 75 million bushels.

It left the range of national average farm-gate prices unchanged at $3.00 to $4.00 per bushel.

Globally, USDA forecast 2018-19 stocks at 159.35 million metric tons, up 2.32 mmt from last month. However, it's still less than the 198.21 mmt ending stocks forecast for 2017-18.

WHEAT

Ending stocks for the 2018-19 crop were forecast at 956 mb, up 21 mb from last month's estimate of 935 million bushels.

USDA bumped up projected 2018-19 yield 0.2 bpa to 47.6 bpa. That increased production 7 million total bushels to 1.884 bb.

USDA also held wheat exports pat at 1.025 bb, but slightly lowered domestic demand 10 mb overall.

The average price was pegged at $5.10 a bushel, but USDA lowered the possible price range by 10 cents a bushel.

Globally, USDA lowered world wheat production by 2.08 mmt for 2018-19 and lowered global imports 1.34 mmt as well. With lower global production, USDA lowered the 2018-19 world wheat ending stocks by 1.11 mmt as well.

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Editor's Note: Join DTN Analyst Todd Hultman at 12 p.m. CDT on Thursday, Oct. 11, as he explains what the day's numbers mean to grain prices. To register, visit: https://dtn.webex.com/…

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2017-18
Corn	14,778	14,851	14,969	14,700	14,827	14,604
Soybeans	4,690	4,733	4,890	4,623	4,693	4,392
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2018-2019
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2017-18
Corn	180.7	181.8	183.0	180.6	181.3	176.6
Soybeans	53.1	53.4	55.0	52.0	52.8	49.1
U.S. HARVESTED ACRES (Million Acres) 2018-2019
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep	2017-18
Corn	81.8	81.7	81.9	81.4	81.8	82.7
Soybeans	88.3	88.7	88.9	88.2	88.9	89.5
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep
Corn	1,813	1,932	2,352	1,774	1,774
Soybeans	885	860	975	492	845
Wheat	956	960	1,020	895	935
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
	Oct	Avg	High	Low	Sep
Corn	159.3	159.2	165.9	156.0	157.0
Soybeans	110.0	109.4	113.0	105.5	108.3
Wheat	260.2	261.1	263.7	259.0	261.3

(AG/BE)

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