DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska. A ridge over western and central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the western and central U.S. A trough in the southeast U.S. and a ridge in the northeast U.S. and western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located off the southeast coast of the U.S. and in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 7 days. Fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada and the polar vortex over eastern Canada and Greenland. This will produce mild/warm in western Canada, cool/cold central and east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a trough over the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the western U.S. extending into western portions of the central U.S. and a trough over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. The trough will be far enough to the east to significantly limit precipitation in the central U.S. Temperatures will be on the cold side for much of the central U.S. on the west side of the trough through 7 days. Some moderation from west to east days 8-10.

This pattern will feature mostly below normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 7 days, variable days 8-10. Precipitation mostly below normal. The northern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation below normal. The southern plains will see below to much below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Precipitation near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see below normal temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...95 AT MCALLEN TX

LOW WED...8 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TALLAHASSEE FL 3.20 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. The mean trough position during this period appears to be over eastern Canada, the Great Lakes region and the northeast US early in the outlook period. Later in the period the trough looks to be mostly over eastern Canada and the northeast US. The US model features a somewhat deeper trough over eastern North America, extending southward to the middle Atlantic region of the US at 8-10 days. The European model is somewhat shallower with the trough with it bottoming out over New England. The mean ridge ranges from the Pacific Northwest northward into western Canada early in this period but may drift eastward across the Canadian Prairies and the northern plains of the US later in the period. This suggests a continued cold weather pattern for east Canada and the northeast US but it also holds out the potential for somewhat warmer weather to develop over the Canadian Prairies, the northern Plains and the far west Midwest. However, I would caution this will be slow to occur, if it does at all.

To the south we see a weak trough over the southern Rockies and possibly the central Rockies early in the period and mainly this trough is over the southwest US and Baja late in the period. This may mean some chance for mostly light showers in the southern plains region. However, the US model does not show any precipitation associated with this trough. The European model does have some showers activity within the period in the southern plains, the Delta and even the southern Midwest but this is probably only light showers, if it occurs at all.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Michael, with 50 mph winds, was located near 33.5 N, 82.5 W or about 30 miles west of Augusta, Georgia. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster forward speed are expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move through eastern Georgia into central South Carolina this morning, then moves across portions of central and eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or early Friday.

At 200 AM PDT, Tropical Storm Sergio, with 65 mph winds, was located near

21.0 N, 120.2 W or about 670 miles west of the southern tip of Baja in the eastern Pacific. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph. A northeastward motion with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then reach mainland Mexico by Friday evening. The system should weaken to a depression as it move across northwest Mexico and the west and north Texas and southern Oklahoma Friday night and Saturday.

SOUTHEAST US (COTTON,PEANUTS): Major Hurricane Michael, high category 4, moved across the Florida Panhandle and into southwest Georgia during Wednesday. Heavy to very heavy rains leading to severe flooding and strong, damaging winds are likely to have impacted cotton and peanut areas, affecting unharvested crops.

Winds will diminish but the heavy rain will also carry through the Carolinas and into Virginia today and tonight. These are also cotton and peanut areas.

Michael has likely caused catastrophic wind damage, a powerful storm surge and severe flooding. Damage assessments will likely continue during the next several days. Reports suggest that this may have been the strongest hurricane to have ever impacted the Florida Panhandle.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Rain is expected to redevelop in the area during the weekend period. This may mean further delays to seasonal fieldwork.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Recent heavy rains will delay and disrupt the harvest and will be highly unfavorable for maturing crops in Midwest region, especially in the western and northern Midwest region. Quality may suffer. An improving weather pattern appears to be setting up as the mean trough shifts eastward.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): A snow storm yesterday in the eastern Dakotas will likely limit the potential for seasonal fieldwork for awhile. An improving weather pattern is possible during the coming days, especially over western areas.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT): Heavy rain and thunderstorm activity during the weekend and early this week will have provided for adequate and surplus soil moisture for winter wheat development. Local flooding is likely. Planting delays also likely. Rain delays and disrupts the harvest of summer crops.

Additional rain will move through southern areas during the weekend, the moisture associated with post tropical storm Sergio.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (CANOLA,WHEAT): Northwest, central and east areas may see additional snow Friday into Saturday. This likely further delays harvest activities. Very cold temperatures limit the potential for melting of this snow and also slows the drying out of fields and the dry down of the crops. The weather pattern looks to improve during the coming week with less cold and less precipitation. Not sure whether if it warms to above normal temperatures but it might.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Rains, associated with post tropical storm Sergio, are expected to move through this area Friday into Saturday. Heavy rain may occur, depending on the exact track of the surface low.

BRAZIL (SOYBEANS/CORN): Episodes of scattered thundershowers and warm temperatures will favor planting and early development of soybeans in Mato Grosso, MGDS and Goias. Planting of corn and soybeans in Parana and RGDS may slow due to recent and forecasted rain, showers and thunderstorms. Soil moisture will favor early planted crops in most areas.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Episodes of showers have recently improved conditions for reproductive to filling wheat in West Australia. Rain has also occurred in New South Wales during the past week. This favors reproductive to filling wheat in the south part of the state but it is likely too late to help the drought reduced crop in the north or wheat in south Queensland. Showers in northern NSW and south Queensland may help improve conditions for planting sorghum and cotton.

SOUTH AFRICA (MAIZE): A recent dry weather pattern featuring above normal temperatures may delay the planting effort. Scattered thundershowers may develop through southeast and central maize areas during the weekend. If verified this would allow for more widespread planting in some eastern growing areas.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Rain yesterday through eastern most areas of Iowa. Light rain or drizzle north, drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday morning, below normal west and near to above normal east during the afternoon.

East: Moderate to locally heavy rain or showers occurred yesterday in southern Wisconsin, north and east Illinois, west and north Indiana and west Michigan.

Light to locally moderate rain or showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to mostly well above normal yesterday.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Light to locally moderate showers south, fair central and north, during Friday. Dry or with only a passing light shower or two Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Low temperatures this period fall to the upper 20s and low 30s north, middle 30s south. This indicates frost and light freeze conditions.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers through northern Missouri during Sunday. Dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal during this period. The coldest low during this period will be in the 20s, except southeast areas may only see low 30s. Light to hard freeze for most of the region.

East: Mostly dry today. Showers and light rain favoring southern and eastern areas during Friday. Mainly dry Saturday. Temperatures average below to well below normal. Lows dip into the low 30s or upper 20s northwest areas, low to middle 30s central and upper 30s to low 40s south.

Light to moderate rain with some heavier possible through southeast areas Sunday into Monday. Dry or with only a few light showers elsewhere in the region during this time. Mainly dry Tuesday. Temperatures average below normal.

Low temperatures may fall to the upper 20s or low 30s north, low 30s central and middle 30s south again by Tuesday morning.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to turn warmer during this period, especially western and southern areas. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Snow and strong winds yesterday through the eastern Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota. Melted precipitation averaged 0.10-0.50 inch and locally heavier. Snowfall of 6-12 inches and locally heavier occurred in southeast and east-central North Dakota. Snowfall 3-6 inches in northeast South Dakota. Temperatures averaged well below normal yesterday.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and Friday. Snow or snow showers east, fair central and west, during Saturday. Temperatures average well below normal today, near to above normal west and below normal east Friday, below to well below normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday, although a few passing snow showers may occur northeast locations. Temperatures average below to well below normal Sunday and Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal west, below normal east, during this period. Precipitation mostly below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged below normal, except northeast Texas had reading near normal.

Forecast: Mainly dry during the daytime hours today. Light to locally moderate rain favoring northern and eastern Kansas and southern Nebraska tonight into Friday. Rain, showers and thundershowers through the Texas Panhandle, Oklahoma and north-central Texas during Saturday. Rain may reach into southeast Kansas.

Showers or light rain may also occur in west Kansas and east Colorado during this time. Temperatures average below to well below normal during this period.

Frost and freeze conditions through northwest and north areas mainly this morning.

Showers and thundershowers linger in central and northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma into Sunday. Light to locally moderate rain and some mixed precipitation through southern Colorado, southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle during Sunday. Drier Monday. Dry Tuesday. Temperatures average well below normal. Hard freeze conditions, temperatures at or below 28F, can be expected through Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas expected possibly the southeast corner and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles during this period. Frost and light freeze conditions southeast Kansas and north-central Oklahoma. Chance for frost southwest Oklahoma.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below to well below normal early in the period, near to above normal late in the period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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