DTN Closing Grain Comments

General Comments:

Corn was up 2 3/4 cents in the December contract and up 2 cents in the July. Soybeans were down 2 1/4 cents in the November contract and down 2 cents in the July. Wheat closed up 2 3/4 cents in the December Chicago contract, up 3 1/2 cents in the December Kansas City and was steady in the December Minneapolis contract.

The December U.S. dollar index is up 0.06 at 95.46. December gold is down $1.00 at $1,201.90 while December silver is down 9 cents and December copper is down $0.0600. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 338 points at 26,490. November crude oil is down $2.11 at $74.30. November heating oil is down $0.0376 while November RBOB gasoline is down $0.0374 and November natural gas is down 0.066.

Corn:

December corn closed up 2 3/4 cents at $3.67 1/2, still finding support from the seven-day forecast, which includes a broad swath of heavy rains from central Texas to Wisconsin, almost certain to create flooding problems in areas trying to harvest row crops. Iowa and Wisconsin are especially vulnerable, having already seen plenty of rain in September. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of corn totaled 56.3 million bushels (mb) and 55.4 mb respectively, another bullish week that has total corn shipments up 50% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Mexico and Canada were last week's top two buyers. With some harvest making progress, December corn prices are trading sideways, well above their September low of $3.42 1/2. DTN's National Corn Index closed at $3.21 Wednesday, up from its September low and priced 44 cents below the December contract. In outside markets, the December U.S. dollar index is up 0.06 with the yield on 10-year T-notes near 3.20%. The next U.S. unemployment report is due out Friday morning.

Soybeans:

November soybeans ended down 2 1/4 cents at $8.59 1/4 on light volume Thursday, holding above the September low, but not finding a strong reason for potential buyers to be attracted. Thursday is dry enough over most of the Midwest to allow more harvesting, but as with corn, heavy rain amounts in the forecast present an unexpected challenge this fall. Reports of flooding seem likely and will be watched early next week, but so far, traders are not showing concern of significant crop loss. Early Thursday, USDA said last week's sales and shipments of soybeans totaled 55.9 mb and 26.5 mb respectively, higher sales than the previous week thanks to Mexico and unknown. Soybeans' total shipment pace remains bearish however, down 23% in 2018-19 from a year ago. With no news of trade progress with China, demand remains a bearish concern for U.S. soybean prices, but aside from the political risk, the trend has turned sideways and the September low of $8.12 1/4 is holding as support. DTN's National Soybean Index closed at $7.58 Wednesday, up from its lowest price in eleven years and priced $1.04 below the November contract, the weakest basis in at least 11 years. Among October contracts, delivery intentions totaled 190 for soybean meal and 566 for soybean oil early Thursday.

Wheat:

December K.C. wheat closed up 3 1/2 cents at $5.22 1/4, helped by light commercial buying on a day that saw little trading volume. Winter wheat planting may also soon take a break as some of the heaviest rain amounts of the next seven days are targeted in the heart of the southwestern U.S. Plains. Given wheat's hardy reputation, the rain is not seen as much more than a nuisance, but some local areas may encounter flooding. Meanwhile, December Minneapolis wheat was unchanged Thursday while Canada's spring wheat harvest contends with early winter conditions. After lower world wheat production in 2018, there is an expectation for U.S. wheat exports to pick up, but that is not happening yet. Thursday morning, USDA said last week's export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 16.0 mb and 11.7 mb respectively, another bearish showing that has total shipments down 31% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Keep in mind, last year's export total of 901 mb was nothing to brag about. USDA's next update of wheat crop estimates will be released Thursday, Oct. 11. For now, December contracts for all three wheats are holding in a sideways range, supported above their July lows. DTN's National SRW index closed at $4.76 Wednesday, 39 cents below the December contract and up from its lowest price in two months. DTN's National HRW index closed at $4.80, also up from its lowest price in two months.

Todd Hultman can be reached at todd.hultman@dtn.com

Follow him on Twitter @ToddHultman1

(CZ)

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