DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge to the north of Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the interior western U.S. A ridge over the eastern U.S. and a weak trough in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the Southeast states and over the south-central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 6 days. Fair-poor agreement days 7-10. We are leaning more towards the intermediate run (6z) of the U.S. model. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold temperatures in central Canada and variable temperatures in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. The main focus of rainfall associated with this trough will be over the eastern US extending back into the eastern Midwest. Episodes of cooler than normal temperatures behind disturbances can be expected under the trough over the central U.S.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 6-10. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...108 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW WED...21 AT DANIEL WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…2.59 inches Orange City IA

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometimes good agreement during the outlook period. There appears to be some issues with timing and strength of cooler high pressure systems coming southward from Canada through the northeast plains and into the Midwest region. Today's European model features a stronger upper level ridge over the Gulf of Alaska extending into British Columbia Canada and the extreme western US at the 8 to 10 day period. The US model is somewhat weaker and a little further east with this ridge at that time. The mean trough is over Hudson Bay and extends south into the western Midwest on the European model. The US model trough is a little further to the east, over the eastern Midwest. The European model is somewhat stronger with this trough, most likely in response to its stronger ridge to the west.

It appears likely that cooler to much cooler surface highs will move south from Canada through the northeast Plains and into the Midwest region during the period. It is uncertain whether this means lows in the 30s in the northwestern Midwest or only the low 40s. Rainfall assoociated with these cold fronts appears somewhat less than was indicated yesterday in the central and south plains region and the northwestern Midwest areas, especially with the further east position of the trough and the weaker nature of the trough on today's US model.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no organized systems in the Atlantic at this time. A disturbance east of the southern Caribbean sea in the southern Atlantic is being watched.

Tropical depression 19e formed yesterday over the Gulf of California east of Baja. This system has already moved inland over northwest Mexico and is dissipating. Moisture associated with this system may enhance the rains over Texas and Oklahoma during the next 1-3 days.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Mainly dry, warm to hot weather during this week should favor mature crops and crop harvests as well as winter wheat planting.

Rain, showers and thunderstorms are expected in this area during the weekend.

Heavy rain is possible.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Recent warm, dry weather will have favored mature crops and harvesting. Rain and thunderstorms returned to the west and north-central areas yesterday and should continue today. Harvest delays appear likely. No significant harvest concerns south and east areas, at least for the next few days. Rainfall may pick up after that.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Rainfall during today and tonight may lead to some delay in the harvests. Additional delays due to wet weather would be mostly confined to northern Minnesota later this weekend and early next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Recent, drier and hotter weather has likely dried soils somewhat for planting winter wheat. Rain and thunderstorms at the end of this week will bring needed moisture to Oklahoma and north-central Texas crop areas.

CHINA (SOYBEANS): Frost and a light freeze was reported early last week in the area of Heilongjiang northwest of Harbin. Late maturing soybeans in the area may be somewhat at risk due to this cold weather. Rain and more cool to cold weather at the end of this week and during the weekend...unfavorable for maturing soybeans and likely delaying the harvest.

CHINA (North China Plain): Widespread rain and thunderstorms across the North China Plain during this week, due to the remnants of typhoon Mangkhut, will provide needed moisture for planting winter wheat next month. However, rain likely delays the summer crop harvests and is unfavorable for maturing summer crops...especially open boll cotton.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drought, dryness and low irrigation has significantly impacted wheat in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this season and if the pattern does not change soon this will also impact sorghum and cotton.

Frost and freeze conditions in southern West Australia during the weekend and in southeast areas of Australia early this week is unfavorable for wheat, especially reproductive wheat. Reports suggest that barley in southwest Australia may have been impacted much more than wheat since not much of the wheat was flowering at the time of the coldest readings.

INDIAN MONSOON: Thunderstorms yesterday mainly along or south of 21 degrees north latitude in southern India, including northern Maharashtra. Models continue to show a westward moving disturbance tracking along 20 degrees north latitude during the next 1-3 days. This will likely bring rain to the north Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, east Gujarat areas at the end of this week or during the weekend. Late Monsoon rains would provide a welcome boost to soil moisture and irrigation in the area. The chance that this rain would also reach key cotton and groundnut areas of west Gujarat has increased somewhat from yesterday.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Episodes of light to moderate precipitation and periods of cool or very cool temperatures during the next 7 days.

Precipitation will likely slow harvest operations and field work during this period, although southwest areas show good harvest progress to date as does much of the key Saskatchewan growing belt.

SOUTH and EAST UKRAINE and SOUTH RUSSIA: Much needed rain has occurred in the region during September after a very dry August. The rainfall will improve planting prospects for winter wheat but more rain will be needed to replenish soil moisture. Dryness is a continuing concern in winter grain areas of Central Region Russia and the Black Soils Region of Russia as well as through the Volga valley.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Rain and thunderstorms, 0.50-2.00 inches and locally heavier, from central Iowa northward into southern Minnesota and including northeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Temperatures averaged above normal for the morning lows, below normal north and well above normal south for the afternoon highs.

East: Light to moderate rain with some heavier through northwest Illinois and southern Wisconsin mainly overnight. A few isolated thundershowers southwest and east Illinois yesterday. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged mostly well above normal. Highs yesterday 88 to 93F central and south locations, 68 to 78F north.

Forecast...

West: Rain and thunderstorms favoring northern areas early today. Later today or during tonight scattered thundershowers develop in the west and spread east.

The heaviest of this activity looks to be in the west. Mainly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average above to near normal north and well above normal central and south today, cooler Friday, below to near normal Saturday.

Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered light showers favoring north and west areas during Monday, eastern and southern areas Monday night or early Tuesday. Drier later Tuesday. Temperatures average above normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Rain and thunderstorms central and northern Wisconsin, western and northern Michigan today. Dry or with only a few light showers during Friday.

Light rain may occur through the lower Ohio River valley during Saturday.

Temperatures average well above normal today, somewhat cooler in the west and continued quite warm east Friday, cooler Saturday but still likely near to above normal.

Showers and some rain south, fair central and north, during Sunday. Episodes of showers and thundershowers Monday and Tuesday. The heaviest of this activity may favor south and east Illinois eastward. Temperatures near normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in this period, below normal later in the period. Rainfall near to above normal south and east, near to below normal northwest.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light showers west and south during the past 24 hours. Drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal, especially the daytime highs.

Forecast: Moderate to locally heavy rain today and tonight, heaviest central and east areas. Mainly dry during Friday and Saturday. Temperatures average below normal today and Friday, near to below normal Saturday. Minimum temperatures Friday morning should be in the 30s and low 40s, possibly the low 30s in some locations.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers Sunday and Monday. Chance for light rain or showers east, fair west, Tuesday. Temperatures average near to below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period, possibly colder later in the period. Rainfall below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry yesterday. Overnight showers were reported in northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. Temperatures averaged well above normal yesterday. Highs mostly 91 to 95, except it was a little cooler in northeast Colorado and somewhat hotter in southeast Colorado and southwest Nebraska.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers and thunderstorms favoring north and southwest areas this afternoon or tonight. A few showers reach into southeast Kansas during the night. Moderate to heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of Oklahoma and north-central Texas during Friday. Thunderstorms may linger Saturday in east Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Temperatures average above normal east and south and somewhat cooler northwest today. The region turns cooler tomorrow and Saturday.

Mostly dry or with only a few showers through southeast areas Sunday. Light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers develop Monday or Tuesday in southeast Nebraska, central and east Kansas and east Oklahoma. Temperatures vary somewhat during this period, ranging from somewhat below to somewhat above normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west, near to above normal east.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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