DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska. The polar vortex over northern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is producing cool/cold temperatures over Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough along the west coast of the U.S. A ridge over the central U.S. and a trough along and off the east coast of the U.S. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the Delta states and over the south-central atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement though 7 days. Fair-good agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a trough over Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures in western Canada, cool/cold temperatures in central Canada and variable temperatures in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A trough in the eastern pacific. A ridge along the west coast of the U.S. A trough over the central U.S. and a ridge along and off the east coast of the U.S. The main focus of rainfall associated with this trough will be over the southeast plains into the southern and eastern Midwest. Episodes of cooler than normal temperatures behind disturbances can be expected under the trough over the Plains and Midwest.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to above west, near to below normal east during the next 5 days. Near to below normal northwest, near to above normal south and east days 6-10. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to above normal during the next 5 days. Near to below normal west, near to above normal east days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...108 AT NEEDLES CA

LOW TUE...15 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…ALBANY NY 2.43 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in good agreement during the first few days of the period, fair to good agreement during the last couple of days of the period. The mean maps at 8 to 10 days feature a ridge-trough-ridge pattern over the North America region. The western ridge is located from the central Gulf of Alaska eastward into British Columbia Canada and southward into the Pacific Northwest of the US. The trough is over Manitoba and Ontario Canada and the Western Midwest region. The eastern ridge is mostly in the western Atlantic but does extend across Florida and the extreme southeast US areas.

This pattern has to potential to deliver cooler or much cooler weather to the central US region during the outlook period. The cold fronts associated with these cooler outbreaks should feature scattered thunderstorm activity.

This is the reason for the near to above normal rainfall outlook for both the central and southern plains region and the Midwest regions. The much cooler weather possible, especially very late in the period, is not overly concerning due to the advanced nature of the summer crops and as it comes very late in September.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: There are no organized systems or suspect areas in the Atlantic region at this time. We see a disturbance near the southern end of Baja California but the chance that this would develop further is low.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Mainly dry, warm to hot weather continues during this week. This should favor mature crops and crop harvests as well as winter wheat planting. Rain or showers and thunderstorms may reach into this area during the weekend.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Recent warm, dry weather will have favored mature crops and harvesting. Rain and thunderstorms return to the northwest and north-central areas during the next 1-3 days leading to likely harvests delays.

Showers may shift into southern and east areas during the weekend but nothing that looks too concerning at this time, except possibly in local areas.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Rainfall during Thursday may lead to some delay in the harvests. However, nothing overly concerning at this date.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Recent, drier and hotter weather has likely dried soils somewhat for planting winter wheat. Rain and thunderstorms at the end of this week will bring needed moisture to Oklahoma and north-central Texas crop areas. Rain during the 6-10 day period will improve soil moisture for winter wheat as well.

CHINA (SOYBEANS): Frost and a light freeze was reported early last week in the area of Heilongjiang northwest of Harbin. Late maturing soybeans in the area may be somewhat at risk due to this cold weather. Rain and more cool to cold weather at the end of this week and during the weekend...unfavorable for maturing soybeans and likely delaying the harvest.

CHINA (North China Plain): Widespread rain and thunderstorms across the North China Plain during this week, due to the remnants of typhoon Mangkhut, will provide needed moisture for planting winter wheat next month. However, rain likely delays the summer crop harvests and is unfavorable for maturing summer crops...especially open boll cotton.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drought, dryness and low irrigation has significantly impacted wheat in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland this season and if the pattern does not change soon this will also impact sorghum and cotton.

Frost and freeze conditions in southern West Australia during the weekend and in southeast areas of Australia early this week is unfavorable for wheat, especially reproductive wheat. Reports suggest that barley in southwest Australia may have been impacted much more than wheat since not much of the wheat was flowering at the time of the coldest readings.

INDIAN MONSOON: Thunderstorms yesterday mainly occurred in northwest and southeast areas of southern India including northwest Maharashtra. Models continue to show a westward moving disturbance tracking along 20 degrees north latitude. This will likely bring rain to the north Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh, east Gujarat areas at the end of this week or during the weekend. Late Monsoon rains would provide a welcome boost to soil moisture and irrigation in the area. It does not appear that the rain would reach to western Gujarat at this time. This area produces cotton and groundnuts.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Central and southern areas will see at least moderate precipitation at the end of this week and during the weekend.

Precipitation will likely slow harvest operations and field work again during this period, although southwest areas show good harvest progress to date as does much of the key Saskatchewan growing belt.

SOUTH and EAST UKRAINE and SOUTH RUSSIA: Much needed rain has occurred in the region during September after a very dry August. The rainfall will improve planting prospects for winter wheat but more rain will be needed to replenish soil moisture. Dryness is a continuing concern in winter grain areas of Central Region Russia and the Black Soils Region of Russia as well as the Volga valley.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred eastern Iowa during the past 24 hours. Light to moderate showers with local heavy showers elsewhere in Iowa, northeast Nebraska and southeast Minnesota. A few light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above to near normal north, well above normal central and south.

East: Light to moderate showers northwest areas yesterday. A few light showers northeast to east-central areas. Little elsewhere in the region. Temperatures well above normal, except over Wisconsin, extreme north Illinois and central to north Michigan where it was cooler.

Forecast...

West: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms through South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northern most areas of Iowa today and again Thursday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms may also occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa mainly during Thursday. A few light showers southeast areas Thursday.

Mainly dry Friday. Temperatures above to near normal north and well above normal central and south today and Thursday, cooler during Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered light to moderate showers with locally heavier possible during Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, above normal Sunday and Monday.

East: Mainly dry or with only a few light showers today and Thursday, except in central and north Wisconsin and northern Michigan where scattered thunderstorms may occur. A few light showers with isolated heavier during Friday.

Temperatures average above to well above normal today and Thursday, cooler northwest and continued quite warm south and east during Friday.

Mainly dry during Saturday. Chance for showers south, fair north, during Sunday. Scattered to widely scattered light to moderate showers during Monday.

Temperatures average near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal early in this period, below normal west and near normal east late in the period. Rainfall near to above normal.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Mainly dry yesterday. Overnight a small areas of thundershowers moved west to east across northern South Dakota. Temperatures averaged mostly below normal for the morning lows yesterday, mostly near to slightly below normal for the afternoon highs.

Forecast: Thunderstorms mainly in eastern South Dakota today. Light rain or showers mainly in Montana tonight. Light to moderate rain with isolated heavier possible during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures average near to below normal today, below normal Thursday, below to near normal Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers favoring northeast areas Saturday and Sunday. Light to moderate showers east, fair west, during Monday. Temperatures average near to below normal.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period, possibly colder later in the period. Rainfall below normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged well above normal. Highs yesterday mostly 92 to 96F, except northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska was a little cooler and southeast Colorado a little hotter.

Forecast: Mostly dry today. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring northeast, central and southwest areas later Thursday or during Thursday night. Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly occurring in Oklahoma and north-central Texas during Friday. Temperatures average well above normal today, cooler north and west areas Thursday and all areas Friday.

Scattered showers and thundershowers linger over east and south Oklahoma, north-central and northeast Texas during Saturday. Dry elsewhere in the region Saturday. Scattered thundershowers southeast, fair otherwise, Sunday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring southeast Nebraska, central and east Kansas and northeast Oklahoma during Monday. Temperatures average below normal Saturday, somewhat warmer Sunday and Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal during this period. Rainfall near to above normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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