DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

Joel Burgio
By  Joel Burgio , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...111 AT EL CENTRO NAS CA AND OCOTILLO WELLS CA LOW TUE...24 AT COPPER BASIN ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…PORTLAND ME 2.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair agreement today. The differences have to do with the overall handling of post Hurricane Florence and the strength of the short wave trough and trailing surface high as it moves through southern Canada during the period. I favor today's European model as it concerns the future movement of post hurricane Florence and a blend between the models as it concerns the trough and surface high in Canada.

The forecast track for hurricane Florence has changed somewhat from yesterday. It appears that the system may stall near the coast of North Carolina and then drift south along the coast before moving inland over South Carolina and possibly into Georgia. As we begin the 6-10 day period the European model shows the low over north Georgia. This low is shown moving moving northeast over the southeast and middle Atlantic states before possibly looping back to the south, maybe even back off the coast of the Carolinas.

Today's US model shows the low also in north Georgia next Monday. This model shows the low moving east into the Carolinas, south into east Georgia and then west through the Gulf coast States. The bottom line here is that we will likely be dealing with the future movement of post hurricane Florence for awhile, even after the initial extreme conditions of a slow moving landfall in the southeast US.

The short wave trough and trailing surface high shown on the US model moving across southern Canada during this period may feature somewhat colder weather for a brief period. The European model is a little weaker with this system overall but similar in nature. This makes for a variable temperature pattern in the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and possibly the northern Midwest.

The central and south plains region remains drier and warmer as the cold front to the north is not expected to reach this area. The Midwest is expected to see some rainfall associated with the northern cold front over the northwest areas and might see rainfall associated with the moisture being brought inland with hurricane Florence in the eastern most areas. Drier, warmer between these two areas. The Delta should also stay drier and warmer for most of the period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 70.1 West or 575 miles southeast of Cape Fear North Carolina. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected through Thursday. Florence is expected to slow down considerably by late Thursday into Friday, and move slowly through early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas today, and approach the coast of North Carolina or South Carolina in the hurricane warning area on Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Strengthening is forecast through tonight. While some weakening is expected on Thursday, Florence is forecast to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it nears the U.S. coast.

Tropical storm Isaac, with 60 mph winds, is 500 miles east of Martinique in the southern Atlantic and moving west at 15 mph. This system should move into and across the Caribbean as a tropical storm during the during the next 5 days.

Hurricane Helene, with 90 mph winds, is located about 800 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic. The system is moving towards the north-northwest at 13 mph. It should move north and then northeast in the eastern Atlantic during the forecast period. Eventually it may bring rain to western Europe but this is somewhat uncertain.

A disturbance moving over the southern Gulf of Mexico, near Yucatan Mexico, is being watched. So far there is no circulation associated with this system.

However, as it moves northwest in the Gulf of Mexico a tropical depression or storm is expected to form. This threatens to bring rain and possibly wind to the northeast Mexico and south Texas areas later this week.

SOUTHEAST US: Hurricane Florence is expected to bring extreme conditions to the southeast US Thursday night, Friday and Saturday. This means a powerful coastal storm surge, extremely damaging winds and torrential rains leading to widespread and very severe flooding. Rainfall potential is 15 to 25 inches in hardest hit areas, possibly more due to very slow movement of the system as it nears the coastline. The axis of the heaviest rains has shifted a little to the south since yesterday. This might open the door to extreme rains also hitting South Carolina as well as North Carolina and southern Virginia. There is also at least some risk for heavy rain reaching to east and north Georgia. Crops impacted would include cotton and peanuts, among others.

DELTA (COTTON,SOYBEAN,WHEAT): Drier weather this week, especially central areas hit by locally heavy rains last week. This should help improve conditions for mature crops and crop harvests as well as any early winter wheat planting.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): A turn to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 7 days will favor maturing and early harvesting of corn and soybeans. We will be watching the potential for moisture associated with the hurricane reaching extreme east areas early next week. Soil moisture is favorable for late filling crops.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Favorable weather for maturing crops and harvesting of corn and soybeans. Although some locations in the north may be wet at times.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Wet weather last week improved soil moisture for winter wheat planting. A turn to above to much above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during the next 7 days will deplete soil moisture. This situation bears watching.

CHINA (SOYBEANS): Frost and a light freeze has occurred early this week in the area of Heilongjiang northwest of Harbin. Late maturing soybeans in the area may be somewhat at risk due to this cold weather. Conditions remain more favorable elsewhere in the northeast China soybean belt at this time. However, a wet and sometimes cool weather pattern in the area going forward is also somewhat concerning for maturing soybeans in the area.

EAST-CENTRAL AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Recent rainfall has helped ease drought conditions in the area. This is likely too late to significantly improve prospects for winter wheat. Rainfall improves soil moisture and builds irrigation for planting cotton and sorghum, however much more rain is needed.

The region continues mainly dry during the next 7 days.

INDIAN MONSOON: The activity in the region is now mostly confined to the northeast. While the Monsoon begins to withdraw from Pakistan and northwest India around this time it is much too early for rains to quite elsewhere in the region. This needs to be watched, especially as it concerns west-central India cotton, groundnuts, sugarcane and sorghum areas...Maharashtra and Gujarat that could still us more rain.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Showers during the next 5 to 7 day time period favor northwest, central and east areas of the region. Rainfall may cause some delay, at times, to the harvest of wheat and canola. Showers improve moisture for planting winter grains. Colder temperatures late this week and this coming weekend likely means an end to the growing season for some west and north areas and a chance for frost in south-central and southeast areas.

SOUTH and EAST UKRAINE and SOUTH RUSSIA: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms occurred during the weekend in South Ukraine, the southern portion of east Ukraine, the southern portion of Central Ukraine and the western portion of South Russia. Rain in these areas will help recharge soil moisture for planting winter grains while causing some delay to the planting effort and the harvest effort for corn and sunflower.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal.

Highs mostly the low to a few middle 80s.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal west, below normal east.

Highs yesterday ranged from the low 80s in central Illinois to near 70 in southwestern Ohio.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Dry or with only light showers with locally heavier, favoring northern areas, during Monday. Temperatures average well above normal Saturday and Sunday, above to well above normal Monday.

East: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today and Thursday, above to well above normal Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Chance for showers or light rain in the southeast and far east areas during Monday. Temperatures average above to well above normal during this period.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal south and east, somewhat more variable northwest and north-central areas. Rainfall near to above normal northwest and extreme east areas, below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry or with only a little light rain or drizzle northwest and south areas during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged near normal in Montana and western North Dakota, above to well above normal elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Light to moderate showers favoring northeast Montana and northern North Dakota today or during tonight. Showers during Thursday in northeast and west areas. A few light showers with locally heavier Friday. Temperatures average above to well above normal south and east areas during this period, near to above normal western North Dakota, near to below normal in Montana.

Light showers with locally heavier favoring northern areas during Saturday and again Sunday. Drier Monday. Temperatures near to below normal west and above normal east Saturday and Sunday, below normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average below normal early in this period, near to above normal late in the period. Rainfall below normal west and south, near to below normal northeast areas.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered light showers in northeast Texas yesterday. Mostly dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged above normal west and northeast, below normal elsewhere in the region. Highs yesterday from 79 to 96F, hottest in eastern Colorado and southwest Nebraska.

Forecast: Mostly dry today through Friday. Temperatures average near to above normal today, above to well above normal tomorrow and Friday. Warmest western and northern areas today and Thursday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light to locally moderate showers in north-central Texas Saturday and Sunday. Chance for showers in southern Nebraska Monday or Monday night, mainly dry elsewhere in the region during this time. Temperatures average above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal north and above normal elsewhere in the region Monday. Highs mostly in the 80s to low 90s.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to near normal north and above normal central and south during this period. Rainfall near to mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio

(SK)

Joel Burgio