DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska and western Canada. The polar vortex over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This is a producing mild/warm temperatures in western Canada, variable central, mild/warm in the east. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the western Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the northwest US. A ridge in the southwest U.S. A trough over the central US. and a ridge over the eastern U.S. and western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located over the southwest U.S. and in the southwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in fair-good agreement during the outlook period with the Manitoba difference being the strength of the ridge over the central and eastern U.S. The U.S. model is stronger than the European model. A compromise between the two models is the way to go at this time. The northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska and a broad trough with embedded disturbances across northern Canada and Greenland. This will produce variable temperatures across Canada. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the eastern pacific/Gulf of Alaska. A trough over the western U.S. and a ridge over the central and eastern U.S. Disturbances will eject eastward from the trough in the western U.S. moving up and over the ridge in the central and eastern U.S. The strength of the ridge and the speed of movement of these systems will dictate the amount of rain that occurs in the central U.S. At this time the driest weather will be the further to the west and south you are. The wettest weather will be the furthest to the north and east. Temperatures will be on the warm/hot side with no significant movement of cool air southward out of Canada.

This pattern will feature variable temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, above normal days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see near to below normal temperatures early in the period, near to above normal thereafter. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see near to below normal temperatures the next few days, above normal thereafter. Rainfall near to below normal during the next 5 days, below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see near to below normal temperatures during the next 4 days, mostly above normal thereafter. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...122 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...31 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…LINCOLN NE 1.86 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement during the outlook period. Today's mean maps covering the 8-10 day period show an upper level ridge from the southeast plains through the middle and lower Miss river valley and the lower and middle portion of the Ohio river valley. The jet stream has lifted north of the Midwest region by that time and the mean trough as shifted into the western US and western Canada. This likely suggests a period of drier, hotter weather for the central and southern plains, the Delta, the southern and eastern Midwest. It may feature more variable temperatures in the northern plains region the the northwest Midwest. The shower threats are mainly from the northeast plains and the eastern Canadian Prairies southward into the northwest Midwest and eastward into Ontario Canada.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Filling crops in the western and northern Midwest region will benefit from moderate to heavy rainfall that occurred during the weekend or will occur during today. No significant hot weather through at least Saturday. The potential for some hot weather and drier conditions during the

8-10 day period is not overly concerning at this time but it will be watched.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Better than expected rains have reached into key corn and soybeans areas of eastern South Dakota, southeast North Dakota and west-central Minnesota during the weekend. This will provide a welcome boost to soil moisture for filling crops in this area. Rains missed other key growing areas of North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Moderate to heavy thunderstorms during the weekend period, including the Texas Panhandle but mostly missing the north-central Texas area, will favor filling summer crops and help improve soil moisture in winter wheat areas. Hotter, drier weather redevelops during the 6-10 day period.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): Scattered showers and thundershowers, 0.25-1.00 inch and locally heavier, occurred through north and central areas during the weekend period...including the Lubbock area and a little south of Lubbock. Only light showers with isolated heavier in the south. Drier weather is expected for much of this week and next weekend. Temperatures also turn somewhat hotter.

AUSTRALIA (WHEAT/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drought and above normal temperatures has likely impacted wheat in southern Queensland, north and central New South Wales. Irrigation for cotton and sorghum crops, planted beginning next month, is reported to be low or very low at this time. Mainly dry conditions continue through Thursday. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers are expected Friday into Saturday.

INDIAN MONSOON: A disturbance moving east to west over central India at the end of last week and early in the weekend period has led to heavy and very heavy rains in key growing areas for soybeans, cotton, sorghum, groundnuts and sugarcane in West Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat. This is likely to maintain or improve prospects for these crops, especially for cotton and groundnuts in Gujarat.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Crop development is reported to be ahead of normal with some crops maturing and early harvesting started. Yield reductions are expected due to summer time heat and dryness. Mainly dry weather continues early this week. Later in the week showers may occur in north and east areas.

Temperatures turn warm to hot through mid week, somewhat cooler again towards the weekend.

NORTH CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Mainly dry and somewhat hot during the weekend period. Rain southeast and showers north Monday. Drier again Tuesday and Wednesday. Crops have recently benefited from rainfall through central and south areas while in the north prior rains have supplied soil moisture for favorable growth.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN, SOYBEANS, GROUNDUTS, COTTON: Tropical storm Rumbia brought rain and gusty winds to the lower Yangtze river valley and the North China Plain late last week and during the weekend period. Improving moisture supplies for filling summer crops and building irrigation for the next winter wheat crop.

WEST EUROPE (WHEAT, CORN, SUGARBEET): Dryness and summer heat has impacted wheat and corn crops. Sugarbeet is also at risk from the dry weather pattern.

Ireland, Scotland and northern England saw rain and some wind as post tropical storm Ernesto tracked across during the weekend. The balance of the region continued drier and warm during the weekend.

Korea/Japan: Typhoon Soulik is expected to bring heavy to torrential rain leading to severe flooding and damaging winds to Kyushu Japan and then to the Korean Peninsula during the next few days. Typhoon Cimaron may hit Shikoku and western Honshu, Japan later this week. This system may also lead to torrential rains and severe flooding. Rice crops are at risk. However, major growing areas of northern Honshu Japan will miss this rain and instead may suffer under a hot, dry weather pattern this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thundershowers through western areas Sunday or Sunday night. Light to moderate rain central areas mainly during the night. Temperatures 79 to 89 Friday, 80 to 89 Saturday, 68 to 85F Sunday.

East: Light to moderate showers with locally heavier through central and east areas, light showers through western areas, early in the weekend period. Dry later in the weekend. Temperatures 80 to 87 Friday and Saturday, 82 to 90F Sunday.

Forecast...

West: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms favoring central and eastern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota today into tonight. Mainly dry during Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures low to upper 70s today, middle to upper 70s Tuesday, upper 70s and very low 80s Wednesday.

Mostly dry during the daytime hours of Thursday. Light to moderate showers, favoring north and south areas, Thursday night or during Friday. Dry or with only light showers through northern areas during Saturday or Saturday night.

Temperatures upper 70s to low 80s Thursday, low to upper 80s Friday, low 80s to 90F Saturday.

East: Moderate to heavy rain or showers and thunderstorms through northwest areas today into tonight. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers elsewhere in the region during this time. Light rain or showers may linger in northeast and east areas early Tuesday. Mainly dry Wednesday. Temperatures upper 70s to low 80s today, low to upper 70s tomorrow and Wednesday.

Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered light showers west, fair east, during Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring eastern areas, during Saturday. Temperatures upper 70s to very low 80s Thursday, upper 70s to low 80s Friday, low to upper 80s Saturday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall near to below normal south and east, near to above normal northwest.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Rain and thunderstorms has developed Saturday night into Sunday in north-central and northeast South Dakota, southeast and east-central North Dakota and west-central areas of Minnesota.

Rainfall, 0.30-1.50 inches and locally heavier, in these areas during the period. Light to moderate showers western South Dakota, drier elsewhere in the region. Temperatures upper 80s to middle 90s west and upper 70s to low 80s east Friday, low 70s to middle 80s west, 80s to middle 90s central and east Saturday, upper 60s to low 70s Sunday.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only light showers in Montana and western South Dakota today or during tonight. Mainly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures 60s to low 70s today, middle to upper 70s Tuesday, low 80s Wednesday.

Light showers favoring central and eastern areas during Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing Saturday. Temperatures low to upper 80s with a few very low 90s Thursday and Friday, warmest Montana and South Dakota. Temperatures upper 70s to low 80s Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to above normal west, above normal east, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Scattered moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms developed in the west and spread east during Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

Rainfall totals, 0.50-2.00 inches and locally heavier, southward into the northern Texas Panhandle, north and central areas of Oklahoma. Light showers with locally heavier to the south. Temperatures 80s and very low 90s north and central areas and 90s and low 100s south Friday, 80s southward through southern Kansas, upper 80s and very low 90s Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle and 90s and very low 100s north-central Texas Saturday. Temperatures Sunday were 68 to 85 central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle northward, 85 to 95 south Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

Forecast: Mostly dry today and early Tuesday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers west, fair east, later Tuesday or during Tuesday night. Light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring central Kansas and northern Oklahoma during Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures 70s and low 80s north and central areas during this period, 80s and low 90s Texas Panhandle, south Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

Light to moderate showers east, drier central and west, during Thursday.

Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures low to upper 80s north and central areas and 90s to very low 100s south during Thursday, upper 80s to low 90s north and central areas and middle 90s to low 100s south Friday, low 90s to near 100F Saturday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average above to well above normal during this period. Rainfall mostly below normal.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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