USDA Reports Update

By DTN Staff

This article was originally posted at 11:03 a.m. It was last updated at 11:58 a.m.

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OMAHA (DTN) -- USDA pegged the national average corn yield at 178.4 bushels per acre (bpa), higher than last month's 174 bpa estimate and the average pre-report estimate. That bumped up estimated production to 14.59 billion bushels, 356 million bushels higher than last month's 14.23 bb estimate.

Soybean yield and production were estimated at 51.6 bpa and 4.59 billion bushels. Both figures exceeded the range of pre-report expectations.

The crop estimates were released today in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports. These August reports are the first of the 2018 season to take into account field surveys conducted by USDA in July.

Friday's new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn and soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. Friday's world ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat, he said.

Today's reports also mark the first time in decades that DTN and other news outlets did not have pre-release access and are receiving the data at the same time as the general public, at 11 a.m. CDT. You can access the full reports here:

Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

For DTN's exclusive audio comments on today's reports, visit: http://listen.aghost.net/…

CORN

If USDA's 178.4 bpa corn yield is realized, it will set a new record, even though production is expected to be 1% lower than last year at 14.586 billion bushels.

USDA adjusted new-crop (2018-19) corn ending stocks to 1.68 billion bushels, up 132 mb from its July estimate of 1.55 bb. USDA boosted feed and residual use by 100 mb and exports by 125 mb, resulting in 225 mb of higher expected use.

USDA lowered the range of average farm gate prices at $3.10 per bushel to $4.10 per bushel.

Old-crop (2017-18) ending stocks came in at 2.03 billion bushels, the same as last month's estimate of 2.03 bb.

Globally, USDA pegged new-crop ending stocks at 155.49 million metric tons (mmt), up 3.53 mmt. Production increased by 6.75 mmt overall, with most of the gain coming from the U.S. USDA lowered Brazilian production by 1.5 mmt and EU output by 1.7 mmt.

World ending stocks for corn came in at 193.33 mmt. Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest 94.5 mmt, while Argentine farmers are set to haul in 41 mmt.

SOYBEANS

Soybean production is forecast to increase 4% from last year to 4.59 billion bushels.

USDA's new-crop ending stocks estimate, at 785 million bushels, exceeds pre-report expectations by more than 205 million bushels. USDA boosted its crush estimate by 15 mb and exports by 20 mb.

Old-crop ending stocks came in at 461 million bushels, a shade lower than last month's 465 mb. USDA also cut old-crop export estimates by 25 mb.

USDA estimated the average range of farm gate price at $7.65 to $10.15 per bushel, down from last month's range of $8.00 to $10.50.

World ending stocks for new-crop soybeans came in at 105.94 million metric tons, up 7.7 mmt, driven mostly by higher U.S. production. Stocks of old crop were pegged at 95.61 mmt. USDA left Brazil and Argentina production unchanged at 120.5 mmt and 57 mmt, respectively.

WHEAT

USDA expects the 2018-19 wheat crop to reach 1.88 billion bushels, down less than 1% from last month's forecast, but up 8% from last year. Winter wheat is expected to account for 1.149 billion bushels, down 6% from last year's 1.27 bb. The average winter wheat yield is estimated at 47.9 bpa, down 2.3 bpa from last year's average. Hard red winter wheat production, at 661 million bushels, is up 1% from last month while soft red winter is down 4% from the July forecast at 292 million bushels.

The spring wheat crop is estimated at 614 million bushels, up slightly from July's estimate and up 48% from last year. If realized, it will be the third-highest production on record. USDA expects farmers to harvest a national average yield of 47.6 bpa, a new record.

Domestically, new-crop ending stocks for wheat came in at 935 million bushels, 50 mb lower than last month. While USDA made a number of changes to supply and demand, the largest was a 50 mb increase in exports. USDA pegged old-crop ending stocks at 1.1 bb.

USDA increased the range of farm gate prices by a dime on both the high and low ends to $4.60 to $5.60 per bushel.

Global new-crop ending stocks for wheat came in at 258.96 mmt, while old-crop supplies were estimated at 273.07 mmt.

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July	2017-18
Corn	14,586	14,417	14,740	14,210	14,230	14,604
Soybeans	4,586	4,428	4,576	4,354	4,310	4,392
All Wheat	1,877	1,850	1,900	1,700	1,881	1,741
All Winter	1,189	1,181	1,201	1,050	1,193	1,269
Spring	73	600	633	570	614	416
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2018-2019
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July	2017-18
Corn	178.4	176.3	180.2	173.8	174.0	176.6
Soybeans	51.6	49.8	51.5	49.0	48.5	49.1
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2018-2019
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July
Corn	1,684	1,630	1,812	1,457	1,552
Soybeans	784	641	742	550	580
Wheat	935	959	1,018	813	985
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-2018
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July
Corn	2,027	2,016	2,137	1,900	2,027
Soybeans	430	461	507	437	465
Wheat	1,100	1,099	1,100	1,080	1,100
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2018-2019
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July
Corn	155.49	152.20	158.20	146.00	151.96
Soybeans	105.94	99.30	101.70	94.00	98.27
Wheat	258.96	255.60	259.90	248.00	260.88
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million metric tons) 2017-18
	Aug	Avg	High	Low	July
Corn	193.33	190.80	192.60	188.00	191.70
Soybeans	95.61	95.80	97.00	92.00	96.00
Wheat	273.07	273.00	275.00	271.00	273.50
WORLD PRODUCTION (Million Metric Tons) 2018-2019
		2018-19
Wheat		Aug	July
European Union		137.50	145.00
FSU - 12		122.54	121.24

(AG)

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