DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Stressful heat in northern U.S. and Prairies crop areas and historic drought in Australia are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

VARIABLE MIDWEST PATTERN

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for very warm to hot and mainly dry conditions in the northwestern Midwest through the end of the week, with stress to filling corn and soybeans. Eastern areas will have more seasonal temperatures and periods of showers, generally favorable for crops.

RAIN SWATH FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains forecast features moderate to locally heavy rain during the next five days in the southern portion of the region. This forecast will be closely monitored for possible soil moisture improvement ahead of winter wheat planting, along with late-season benefit to row crops and pastures. Rain is too late to benefit non-irrigated cotton.

NORTHERN PLAINS HEAT

The Northern Plains pattern continues to feature above-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. This combination will deplete soil moisture and increase stress to filling corn and soybeans.

STRESSFUL PRAIRIES HEAT

Canadian Prairies crop areas remain mostly hot and dry through the end of the week. This is a stressful pattern for wheat and canola, along with reducing hay supplies for livestock. Some oats acreages are reported being baled for livestock feed due to poor grain production.

LATE-ARRIVING EUROPE SHOWERS

In Europe, scattered showers and cooler temperatures are noted. These developments are less stressful for crops; however, extensive loss has already occurred due to record heat and dryness. The EU soft wheat production total is expected to be the lowest since 2012.

MILDER RUSSIA PATTERN

In the Black Sea region, mainly dry conditions are forecast in Russia and Ukraine through the next week. Temperatures will be seasonal. The pattern has turned more favorable in the past two weeks, offering benefit for summer row crops.

HISTORIC AUSTRALIA DROUGHT

Australia's primary eastern crop areas remain in the grip of historic drought. This damaging dryness is leading to projections of a 30% decline in wheat production for the 2018-19 crop year. The next week offers light rainfall in far southeastern areas, but almost no rain in New South Wales. Indications are that the eastern Australia drought is the worst in consecutive seasons in more than 50 years.

VARIABLE CHINA RAIN

Primary crop areas of China continue with the potential for scattered rainfall, along with seasonal temperatures, during the next week. This pattern is generally beneficial for crops.

MIXED INDIA TRENDS

India monsoon rains remain stalled. This lull in activity is leading to hotter conditions and soil moisture depletion in some sectors of west-central India, notably in Gujarat. Soil moisture in western Madhya Pradesh is still adequate for crops.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(BAS/ES/SK)

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