DTN Midday Livestock Comments

Strong Gains Sweep Through Hog Markets

Rick Kment
By  Rick Kment , DTN Analyst
(DTN photo by Russ Quinn)

Strong buyer support in lean hog futures seems to be the main focus of the livestock complex Monday morning. Triple-digit gains are seen in all but front month contracts, as this is helping to fill the vacuum following sharp contract lows seen last week. Cattle markets are lightly traded, but holding moderate gains in most traded contracts. This could bring some additional volume later in the week. Corn prices are higher in light trade Friday. July corn futures are 2 cents higher. Stock markets are higher in light trade. The Dow Jones is 13 points higher while Nasdaq is up 12 points.


Mixed trade has developed Monday with prices trading mostly higher, although trade ranges have remained narrow. Live cattle futures are 10 cents lower to 52 cents higher, as light to moderate buying support is seen in contracts through the end of 2018. The overall stability in the market has continued to spark some additional buyer interest, especially in early 2019 contracts where prices are supportive, but volume remains light. Cash cattle interest remains dead in the water with bids and asking prices still undeveloped. Inventory taking and show list distribution occupied most of the interest Monday morning and will likely keep trade from developing until the last half of the week. Boxed Beef cut-outs at midday are higher, $2.00 higher (select) and up $1.10 per cwt (choice) with light movement of 42 total loads reported (23 loads of choice cuts, 14 loads of select cuts, no loads of trimmings, 5 loads of ground beef).


Mixed trade continues to be seen in the lightly traded feeder cattle complex. There is growing support seen in the market that buyers may continue to focus on additional trade interest, while traders still place attention on the amount of cattle being shipped to feedlots through the summer. The expectation is that placements have peaked, which is helping to draw additional buyer support through the rest of the year.


Strong market support has moved into lean hog futures as traders try to bring some buyer interest to the market. Traders still view the market as weak, but the overall lack of buyer interest in the complex has left the market oversold and ripe for a market correction. Nearly all contracts are holding triple digit support with October and December contracts leading the market higher with gains of $1.80 to $2 per cwt. Prices have backed away from session highs set early Monday, but traders are far from quickly running away from the market. Cash prices are lower on the National Direct morning cash hog report. The weighted average price is down $1.24 at $66.82 per cwt with the range from $64.50 to $68.00 on 2,607 head reported sold. Cash prices are unreported due to confidentiality on the Iowa/Minnesota Direct morning cash hog report. The National Pork Plant Report posted 122 loads selling with carcass values gaining $1.64 per cwt. Lean hog index for 7/19 is at $77.83 down 0.79 with a projected two-day index of $76.90, down 0.93.

Rick Kment can be reached at rick.kment@dtn.com


Rick Kment