DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a ridge over Alaska extending into northwest and north-central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada extending into Greenland. This is producing variable temperatures in western Canada, mild/warm central and east. The southern branch of the jet features a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. A trough over southwest Canada. A ridge over the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. Centers of subtropical high pressure are located along the Texas/New Mexico border and in the southwest and northwest atlantic.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement during the next 10 days. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet will feature a ridge over Alaska and far western Canada. A trough over central and eastern Canada and a weak ridge over Greenland. This will be a mild/warm pattern for western and central Canada, variable in the east. The southern branch of the jet will feature a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska. A weak trough over southwest Canada. A ridge in the western U.S. A trough over the central and eastern U.S. and a ridge in the western atlantic. Under the trough temperatures in the central U.S. will be cooler the further to the east you head, more variable the further to the west. The wettest area with this pattern will be over the interior eastern U.S. along the boundary zone between the trough to the west and the ridge to the east.

This pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in the Midwest. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. Rainfall mostly below normal. The southern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10. The Delta states will see variable temperatures. Rainfall below normal.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...121 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW THU...32 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…TUPELO MS 1.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to good agreement today. The subtropical ridge is expected to retreat toward the southwest US during the first few days of the outlook period as the mean trough becomes established between the Miss river and the northeast US. A second mean ridge is mostly in the Atlantic but fairly close to the east coast states. Later in the period the southwest ridge expands northward over the western US and eastward into the southwest and south plains region while the mean trough remains in place over the northeast plains and Midwest regions while weakening somewhat. Also of note today we see the heights building over far west Canada into Alaska which in turn causes the east Canada trough to deepen. If this were fall this would suggest a turn to much cooler weather for the central and east Canada areas.

However, coming during mid summer this is not all that concerning and temperatures may only be near or slightly below normal. It does, however, promote a north to south flow which means below normal rainfall for the Canadian Prairies, the northern plains and the northwest and central Midwest areas. In the central and south plains region with surface highs moving by north and east of the region and the ridge backing off to the west this leaves the door open for clusters of scattered thunderstorms to develop in the northwest flow over Nebraska and Kansas, along with less hot weather.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): No significant hot weather to impact reproductive crops during the next 7 days. Rains in eastern areas may linger a few days.

Rain is needed in the Michigan area after a recent drying trend. Soils moisture should support favorable development in the Midwest, except in Missouri where despite showers yesterday it is still very dry.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Crops remain in mostly good to excellent condition at this time, especially in North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Showers and a more variable temperature pattern in the eastern and southern areas this week will favor developing crops. Drier, hotter weather in Montana spring wheat areas may increase the stress to this crop, somewhat.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): High heat moved into Kansas yesterday, increasing stress to summer crops. The heat should back away during the next few days but may impact extreme southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado for a few more days. There is some chance for beneficial shower activity in key corn and soybean areas of Nebraska and north Kansas during the middle to late part of next week.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): No significant rain is being forecasted during the next 7 days. Temperatures upper 90s to very low 100s through Monday, somewhat less heat Tuesday through Thursday.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGARBEETS): Recent rain and less hot weather has helped ease stress to late reproductive and early filling corn in the region but is unlikely to significantly improve prospects after the extremes of this summer. A more showery pattern may benefit filling sunflower more than corn at this time. Recent generous rains have improved prospects in key sugarbeet areas of west and north Ukraine and Belarus.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Showers remain fairly limited over southwest and central areas during the next 7 days. Somewhat more activity north and east areas. Temperatures vary somewhat but with some warm and some cool days. More and better coverage rain is needed to support filling summer crops at this point.

NORTH CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Thunderstorms far west and north areas yesterday, drier and hotter otherwise. Rainfall potential through early next week looks to be highest in the north and west areas. Southwest and central areas may trend hotter and drier during this time. Later next week scattered thundershowers and a cooler trend for the region.

CENTRAL CHINA (CORN, SOYBEANS, GROUNDUTS, COTTON: Fairly hot, mostly dry weather continues into Sunday. Increasing stress to reproductive and filling summer crops, especially central and south areas that are also too dry. A weakening tropical storm will bring the chance for showers and thundershowers and cooler temperatures to the area early next week. This may begin in southeast areas as soon as Sunday, reaching areas Monday and northern areas Tuesday.

INDIAN MONSOON: Moderate to heavy thunderstorms continued yesterday through west-central India, including in groundnut and cotton areas of Gujarat. We also see increasing activity moving westward off the Bay of Bengal today. This is likely to bring more heavy rains to central and northwest India this weekend or early next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: Moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms through central and south Minnesota, east and a little of north-central Iowa, northeast and central Missouri during the past 24 hours. Numerous tornados were reported in central Iowa yesterday. Temperatures averaged below normal north, near to above normal south.

East: Scattered showers and thundershowers yesterday or overnight through Wisconsin, north and west Illinois and from southeast Illinois through southern Indiana. LIttle elsewhere in the region. Temperatures averaged below normal north, near normal south.

Forecast...

West: A few sprinkles or light showers may linger in northeast areas today.

Mainly dry or with only a few very light showers during the weekend.

Temperatures mostly below normal today and Saturday, except possibly near normal southwest. Temperatures near to slightly below normal Sunday.

A few showers in western areas Sunday night, mainly dry Monday. Mostly dry during the daytime Tuesday. A few more showers or thundershowers in west and northwest areas Tuesday night. A few light showers with locally heavier possible, favoring east and south areas, during Wednesday. Temperatures average near to mostly below normal during this period.

East: Moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms favoring northwest, central and east areas today and tonight. Additional light to moderate showers favoring eastern areas during Saturday. A few more afternoon or evening type showers for eastern areas Sunday as well. Temperatures average near to above normal south and below normal central and north today, below normal tomorrow and Sunday.

Mostly dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier in southeast areas Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, mostly near normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Rainfall near to above normal south-central and southeast, near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers and thundershowers occurred yesterday or last night in eastern North Dakota, northeast South Dakota and west-central Minnesota. Dry or with only isolated light showers elsewhere in the region. Temperatures near to above normal west and central areas, near to below normal east.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only a few light showers in northeast areas today.

A few light showers in the western Dakotas tomorrow. Light to locally moderate showers central and east Dakotas and north Minnesota during Sunday.

Temperatures average above normal west and below normal central and east today, above normal west and near normal east Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mostly dry Monday. A few light showers with isolated heavier Tuesday. Mostly dry again Wednesday. Temperatures average below normal during this period.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal.

Rainfall near to below normal.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: A few thundershowers, some with strong wind gusts, north-central, northeast and southwest Kansas during the past 24 hours. Fairly low coverage.

Dry or with only isolated light showers otherwise. Temperatures above to well above normal. Highs yesterday 93 to 105F in Kansas, hottest west and south areas. Liberal Kansas 105. Southeast Colorado also had readings 99 to 105 yesterday. Highs 103 to 113 Oklahoma, 105 to 112 north Texas.

Forecast: Mostly dry or with only isolated light showers today and Saturday. A few thundershowers, mostly light, may form in east Colorado and west Kansas Sunday or Sunday night. Temperatures 100F or higher again today from southeast Colorado and south Kansas southward, mostly from southern Oklahoma into north Texas Saturday. Sunday the 100 degree line moves back north into southeast Colorado, extreme south Kansas and including west and south Oklahoma and most of Texas.

Monday and Tuesday there is a chance for a few afternoon or night times thundershowers in east Colorado, northwest Kansas and west Nebraska. Little elsewhere in the region during these days. Scattered thunderstorms may develop through southern Nebraska and in north and a little of central Kansas during Wednesday or Wednesday night and early Thursday. A few light showers may reach to south Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle during this time period. Temperatures near to below normal north and central areas during this period, mostly above normal south. Not as hot as it is currently, however.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal north and east, above normal south and west-central areas. Rainfall near to above normal northwest, central and east-central areas and near to below normal elsewhere in the region.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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