DTN Market Impact Weather

Variable Midwest Forecast

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Variability in Midwest conditions over the next 10 days and dry conditions affecting the Australia wheat outlook are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

MIXED MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for increasing shower activity and cooler temperatures to favor developing and reproductive crops in the Midwest during the next week. A new round of flooding may damage acreage in the north-central portion of the region. Meanwhile, heat and dryness have already caused crop loss in the southwestern portion of the region, especially in Missouri and Kansas.

HOT IN SOUTHERN PLAINS

The Southern Plains will be hot with highly variable rain chances over the next week. Upper-air high pressure ridging is indicated to center in Oklahoma and Texas. This keeps the majority of the region in line for above- to much-above-normal temperatures and little if any rainfall.

MINIMAL WEST TEXAS RAIN

West Texas cotton areas have no significant chance for rainfall during the next seven days. Temperatures will be above to much above normal, adding further to heat stress.

SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains crops remain in mostly good to excellent condition at this time, especially in North Dakota. Showers and a more variable temperature pattern in the Dakotas and north Minnesota will favor developing crops during the coming days.

COOLER IN PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies rainfall chances during the next week are mostly on the light side. However, a turn to cooler temperatures should favor development of crops.

BLACK SEA REGION HEAT

Black Sea region crop areas remain very warm to hot and dry. Ukraine through southern Russia has more heat in store during the next week. Scattered thundershowers offer some moisture benefit for oilseed crops; however, rainfall is too late for wheat and corn.

SCATTERED NORTHEAST CHINA RAIN

Northeast China will have scattered thundershowers but with some periods of hot temperatures during the next week. There are no major concerns at this time; however, heat will serve to limit the crop benefit from rainfall.

MIXED CENTRAL CHINA TREND

North and west areas of central China will benefit from scattered thunderstorms and more seasonal temperatures during the next week. A strong upper-level ridge is expected to build inland from the east during this period; this likely will lead to fairly hot temperatures and mostly dry conditions through east-central, southeast and central areas for much of next week.

DRYNESS REDUCES AUSTRALIA WHEAT

Australia wheat areas continue to struggle with record or near-record dryness over the past three-and-a-half months. Wheat production is now expected to amount to the lowest total in the past eight years.

INDIA MONSOON PROGRESSION

India subcontinent satellite imagery indicates monsoon development near normal for this point in the season. Rainfall potential during the next week is favorable to excessive from central interior areas northward, except possibly in far west areas of north India and in Pakistan.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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