DTN Midday Grain Comments

General Comments

The U.S. stock market indices are firmer with the Dow up 185. The interest rate products are firmer. The dollar index is 6 points lower. Energies are weaker with crude down 0.65. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up $3.40.

CORN

Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating ahead of the report. There looks to be a couple more days of hot weather before rains and cooler weather moves through. Ethanol board margins remain stable with corn and ethanol futures lower this morning. Corn basis has been flat to firmer in recent days with the lower board. On the WASDE report tomorrow the average yield guess is 174.9 BPA vs. the current 174, with old-crop ending stocks expected to be at 2.107 billion bushels, with the new crop average trade guess at 1.71 billion. Weekly export sales were disappointing at 402,100 of old, and 128,100 of new. On the September chart we remain below the 10-day at $3.53, with the 20-day at $3.60 the next round up. Support is the fresh low of $3.37 scored this morning with the lower Bollinger Band at $3.39 above that.

SOYBEANS

Soybean trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with trade fading from the nearly dime higher trade overnight with wait and see action ahead of the report. Meal is flat to $1 lower and oil 5 to 15 points lower. Brazil remains at a stout premium to U.S. origin, which is compounded by the ongoing logistics issues with Brazil with premiums around $1.60 right now. Bean basis has remained steady to firmer with processors taking the lead. Trade will be watching for more sales on the daily wire with this advantage with nothing hitting the wire yesterday, and weekly sales were a bit soft at 158,600 metric tons of old, 270,800 metric tons of new, 37,500 of meal, 40,700 of new, and 27,500 of oil. Weather should continue to push growth along in the near term. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for a yield of 48.6 BPA, with old crop carryout at 507 million bushels, and new crop at 471 million. On the August chart the 10-day at $8.52 is again the first level of resistance with further support the lower Bollinger Band at 8.22 with the next level resistance the 20-day at 8.86.

wheat

Wheat trade is flat to 3 cents higher at midday with trade trying firm back from the early week lows as the volatile pattern continues. Harvest progress should continue to push along with the homestretch ongoing for the plains. Spring wheat should see good progress with Canada with better rains starting to show up over the Prairie provinces. Russian harvest continues to move along as well. HRW basis has remains solid through harvest with the better protein with offered premiums declining. The WASDE report is expected to show wheat production at 1.858 billion bushels, and carryout at 973 million bushels. Weekly export sales are soft at 136,400 metric tons. On the September Kansas City is back below the major moving averages with the 10-day at 4.88 as resistance and support the lower Bollinger Band at $4.57.David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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