DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

The northern branch of the jet stream features a trough over Alaska and northwest Canada. A ridge over central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada and northern Greenland. This is producing mild weather in western Canada, warm weather in central Canada and mild/cool weather in eastern Canada. The southern branch of the jet features a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge in the eastern pacific. A trough over the interior northwest U.S. A ridge over the central U.S. and a trough over the northeast U.S. and northwest atlantic. The center of strong subtropical high pressure is located over Nebraska.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

The U.S. and European models are in good agreement through 7 days, fair agreement days 8-10. During the 6-10 day period the northern branch of the jet stream will feature a trough over eastern Alaska and western Canada. A weak ridge over central Canada and a trough over eastern Canada and Greenland. This will produce a variable temperature pattern in Canada. The southern branch of the jet wil feature a trough in the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge over the southwest U.S. and a trough over the north-central and northeast U.S. Disturbances embedded within this broad trough will be moving fast enough to limit rainfall in the northern Plains and Midwest but should produce enough to maintain favorable crop conditions. Temperatures will become more variable during the 6-10 day period under the trough aloft.

This pattern will feature near to above normal temperatures in the Midwest during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall near to below normal. The northern plains will see variable temperatures. Rainfall near to below normal. The southern plains will see near to above normal temperatures. Rainfall mostly below normal. The Delta states will see near to above normal temperatures during the next 5 days, variable days 6-10. Rainfall below normal during the next 5 days, near to below normal days 6-10.

Mike Palmerino

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...114 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...35 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7 PM YESTERDAY…FORT WAYNE IN and LAS VEGAS NV 0.66 INCH

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

The US and European models are in fair to sometime good agreement during the outlook period. The US model remains somewhat deeper and a little faster with the first trough as it moves over the northern Midwest late in the 5 day period and early in the 6-10 day period. The European model delays the rainfall associated with the cold front from reaching the heart of the Midwest and the central plains area when compared with the US model but eventually the model catches up and the cooler temperatures and showers arrive. Late in the period the US model is a little faster and somewhat deeper with a new trough as it moves over the northern plains and upper Midwest regions. The European model shows a return to hotter temperatures in the central and northern plains and western Midwest regions while the US model is not as hot looking for these areas.

The mean maps at 8-10 days show the ridge in the western US and a jet stream dipping southward over the northeast plains and northern Midwest regions. This suggests that the northeast plains and Midwest regions may be warm to somewhat hot but probably not very hot. It also holds out the chance for scattered showers along this jet stream.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

TROPICS: At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Chris, with top winds near 105 mph, was located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 69.9 West or 315 miles east of Cape Hatteras, NC. Chris has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion with additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next 2 to 3 days as the system moves away from the US mainland.

The main area of disturbed weather associated with the remnants of Beryl is located just to the east of the Bahamas. This system has is not showing any signs of development, and the chances of regeneration today or tomorrow remain low. However, conditions could become a little more favorable later in the week while the disturbance moves northward over the Atlantic.

Typhoon Maria in the Pacific tracked north of Taiwan before moving inland over southeast China during the past 12 hours. Top winds at the time of landfall were estimated to be 95 knots. It will continue to move inland and dissipate within the next 24 to 48 hours. However, heavy rains leading to severe flooding are still a concern.

MIDWEST (CORN, SOYBEANS): Temperatures do not appear to be hot enough to significantly impact reproductive crops in the Midwest region during this week, except possibly in the northern Missouri area. Scattered showers will develop in west and north areas during the next few days but may hold off in the heart of the eastern Midwest until the weekend or even early next week.

NORTHERN PLAINS (SPRING WHEAT, CORN, SOYBEANS): Crops remain in mostly good to excellent condition at this time, especially in North Dakota. Showers and not very hot weather in the North Dakota area will continue to favor crops. South Dakota and Montana may suffer somewhat with hotter temperatures and less rain chances.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS/SORGHUM): Drier, hotter weather in most areas this week will increase stress to developing summer crops while favoring the late maturing wheat crop and the final harvest effort.

WEST TEXAS (COTTON): No significant chance for rainfall during the next 7 days.

Temperatures slightly above normal early in the period, above normal mid to late period.

UKRAINE/SOUTH RUSSIA (CORN, SUNFLOWER, SUGARCANE): South Russia was very hot again yesterday. The region is likely to experience above normal temperatures during the next 7 days. However, there also appears to be some increased chances for scattered thunderstorms. At this point in the summer and after the early heat/dryness in the area it is likely too late to significantly improve prospects for corn. If rainfall does improve it might help filling soybeans or sunseed in the area.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (WHEAT, CANOLA): Another hot day from western Saskatchewan eastward yesterday. Scattered moderate to locally heavy thunderstorms developed overnight. Thunderstorms or rain lingers in north and southeast areas today.

Drier tomorrow but with another chance for showers Friday or during the weekend. Rainfall should help to ease dryness concerns for canola and spring wheat.

NORTHEAST CHINA (CORN AND SOYBEANS): Episodes of scattered thundershowers with a variable temperature pattern during the next 5 to 7 days. Mostly favorable conditions for corn and soybeans, although stress increases somewhat during periods of hotter temperatures.

NORTH CHINA PLAIN (CORN,SOYBEANS,GROUNDNUTS,COTTON): Scattered thunderstorms have been in the region during the past couple of days, helping to ease stress to developing summer crops in areas that have been too dry and occasionally hot. Typhoon Maria is expected to bring flooding rains to rice areas of southeast China but it appears the moisture from this system may head through the western Yangtze river valley before moving north through western areas of the North China Plain and the northern areas of the NCP. This leaves southeast and central areas somewhat drier, somewhat hotter during this period.

INDIAN MONSOON: Rain and thunderstorms moved through the central interior region and back into north India during the past 24 hours. Thunderstorms linger in the north area for a few days and then drift southward again. This puts key growing areas of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra in and out of heavy rain events and maintains near to above moisture levels for crops. Crop areas of Gujarat will be on the edge of this activity with the best chance for heavier rains favoring east and south areas. Ganges plain crop areas have seen below normal seasonal rains to date since the rains do not hold in these areas long enough to bring the rain levels up to normal.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat

Summary...

West: A few light showers northwest, fair elsewhere in the region, during the past 24 hours. Temperatures above normal west and south, near normal northeast.

Highs low 80s southern Minnesota to upper 90s Missouri, 85 to 95 across Iowa.

East: Scattered light to locally moderate showers from east-central Illinois through central Indiana and in western Ohio yesterday. Dry elsewhere in the region. Temperatures mostly 88 to 94F, except it was a little cooler in southern Wisconsin and a little hotter in southwest Illinois than this range.

Forecast...

West: Mostly dry today. Chance for scattered thunderstorms through central Minnesota tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through southern Minnesota, northwest Iowa, southeast South Dakota, north and west Nebraska Thursday. Light to locally moderate showers may reach into north and west Iowa and Nebraska during Friday or Friday night. Eastern and southern areas of Iowa and northern Missouri may continue mostly dry today through Friday.

Temperatures upper 80s northeast areas, low and middle 90s west and south locations, today, 80s north and 90s south Thursday, 80s north and central areas and 90s south Friday.

A few showers and thundershowers during Saturday. Scattered showers and thundershowers redevelop in the north and settle south Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures low to middle 80s Saturday and Sunday, except northern Missouri may still reach the low 90s. Temperatures 70s and 80s Monday.

East: Mostly dry today and Thursday. Dry or with only a few light showers developing in northwest areas Friday. Temperatures low to middle 80s east, upper 80s to very low 90s west, today and Thursday. Temperatures upper 80s to low 90s Friday.

Mostly dry Saturday. Dry or with only a few light showers with locally heavier, favoring north and west areas, Sunday. Scattered light to locally moderate showers and thundershowers during Monday. Temperatures 80s north to 90s south Saturday, upper 80s to low 90s Sunday, low 80s to very low 90s Monday.

6 to 10 day outlook: Temperatures are expected to average near to below normal early in the period, near to above normal later. Rainfall near to above normal northwest and east areas, near to below normal southwest and central locations.

Northern Plains (Spring Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, livestock)

Summary: Light to moderate showers were reported yesterday or last night in northeast Montana and across the northern most areas of North Dakota. Dry or with only isolated light showers otherwise during this time. Temperatures well above normal west and south, near normal northeast. Highs 91 to 103F in Montana, west and central South Dakota, 80 to 90 elsewhere in the region.

Forecast: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon or tonight will mainly occur in northern Minnesota. A few thundershowers may develop in South Dakota tonight. Scattered thunderstorms in southern South Dakota Thursday, dry elsewhere in the region Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures cooler in the west and hotter east and south today, cooler most of the region Thursday, warm to hot again Friday.

Scattered light to moderate showers and thundershowers favoring east and south areas late Saturday or during Saturday night and early Sunday. Drier later Sunday. Dry Monday. Temperatures below normal in central Montana, above normal elsewhere in the region, Saturday. Temperatures below normal Sunday, below to near normal Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal through western areas, somewhat more variable through the east, during this period. Rainfall near to below normal west and central areas, near to above normal east.

Central/Southern Plains (Winter Wheat, livestock)

Summary: Isolated thundershowers were reported yesterday or last night in the northern Texas Panhandle, southwest Oklahoma and northeast Texas. Mostly light showers but locally heavier may have occurred. Dry elsewhere in the region.

Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south yesterday.

Forecast: Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier in southern areas today and Thursday. Scattered thundershowers may drift into southern Nebraska and northeast Colorado from the north during Friday or Friday night. Temperatures low to upper 90s today and Thursday, 80s northeast Colorado and southern Nebraska Friday.

Dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier Saturday.

Scattered light showers with locally heavier in north and central areas Sunday or Monday. Mainly dry southern areas during this time. Temperatures low to upper 90s Saturday and Sunday, 80s north and northwest and 90s elsewhere in the region Monday.

6-10 Day Outlook: Temperatures are expected to average mostly above normal western and southern areas, somewhat more variable northeast areas. Rainfall near to below normal, near normal most likely north and east areas.

Joel Burgio can be reached at joel.burgio@dtn.com

(SK)

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