DTN Daily Basis Comments

Thursday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 1 cent stronger at 31 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was down 7 cents at $3.09. The national average basis for soybeans was 1 cent stronger at 59 cents under the August futures contract, while the DTN National Soybean Index was down 22 cents at $7.74. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 5 cents stronger at 16 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was down 15 cents at $4.58. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 24 cents under the September futures contract, while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 12 cents at $5.01.

DAILY BASIS CHART:

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $3.09 -$0.07 -$0.31 Sep $0.009
Soybeans: $7.74 -$0.22 -$0.59 Aug $0.004
SRW Wheat: $4.47 -$0.20 -$0.25 Sep $0.000
HRW Wheat: $4.58 -$0.15 -$0.16 Sep $0.053
HRS Wheat: $5.01 -$0.12 -$0.24 Sep -$0.004

CORN:

The DTN National Corn Index for Wednesday indicated a national average basis of 31 cents under the Chicago September futures contract, 1 cent stronger than Tuesday's basis. Another day, another new low for September corn. The escalation in the trade war earlier this week has added pressure to the market, along with favorable weather conditions still expected in most of the Midwest, especially by the start of next week when temps cool off. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects Thursday's USDA report to show an increase in U.S. ending stocks for 2018-19 from 1.577 to 1.733 billion bushels, based on a higher production estimate of 14.33 billion bushels. Ethanol plant basis was mostly stronger in the Midwest as the cash price continues to move lower. The BNSF shuttle basis delivered to the PNW was 2 cents stronger at +95U and the CIF Gulf basis remained firm at +48U. Farmers are not in the mood to sell much corn at these prices.

SOYBEANS:

The DTN National Soybean Index for Wednesday indicated a national average basis of 59 cents under the Chicago August futures contract, 1 cent stronger than Tuesday's basis. Soybeans closed sharply lower with the November contract posting its lowest close in nine years. The threat of an additional 10% tariff placed on additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods added more pressure to the market. Dow Jones' survey of analysts expects Thursday's USDA report to show an increase in U.S. ending soybean stocks for 2018-19 from 385 to 491 million bushels, mainly due to a slowdown in demand after China's July 6 tariff. Processors continue to be the heroes supporting the basis with plants in southern Minnesota 5 to 10 cents stronger, east central Iowa 1 cent stronger, central Illinois 2 cents stronger and southeast South Dakota 3 cents stronger.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The DTN National Soft Red Winter Wheat Index for Wednesday indicated a national average basis of 25 cents under the Chicago September futures, unchanged from Tuesday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index for Wednesday indicated a national average basis of 16 cents under the Kansas City September futures contract, 5 cents stronger than Tuesday's basis. The spot KC premiums for 12% through 12.4% proteins was 2 cents weaker and 13% through 14% were 12 to 13 cents weaker. This move lower on the high proteins was not unexpected as the new crop protein remains high as the harvest moves north. The drop in the flat price is making U.S. wheat cheap enough to move to Brazil for now, as well as in to Mexico. It would be nice to get some business given the poor export sales we have been seeing so far this crop year.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index for Wednesday indicated a national average basis of 24 cents under the Minneapolis September futures contract, unchanged from Tuesday's basis. The Minneapolis spot HRS wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for #1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted; 13% proteins were unchanged at +140N; 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +120* to +140; 14% proteins were down 5 cents to up 10 cents at +135* to +170; 14.5% proteins were not quoted and 15% proteins were unchanged at +160. Receipts were 71 cars, which included two trains. (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow Mary Kennedy on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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