DTN Market Impact Weather

Drier Midwest Pattern

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
Connect with Bryce:

OMAHA (DTN) -- Dry conditions forecast in the Midwest, and further dryness in the Black Sea region, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Friday.

WARM AND DRY MIDWEST FORECAST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a warming trend with little rainfall over the next week in the Midwest. Conditions will mostly favor developing and reproductive crops for much of this period. However, the drier trend along with warm to hot conditions may increase stress to crops late in the period.

VARIABLE SOUTHERN PLAINS OUTLOOK

Southern Plains wheat harvest has mostly favorable conditions during the next five days. The pattern is also favorable for row crops. A hotter and drier pattern is forecast during the middle of next week, which will be stressful to crops. The 10-day time frame may bring a higher chance for showers along with cooler conditions.

CONTINUED DRY IN WEST TEXAS

West Texas remains mostly dry in the next week, although isolated light showers cannot be ruled out. Seasonal to below-normal temperatures during the next few days will help ease stress to developing cotton. Hotter conditions are indicated later, especially near the end of this period.

DRY NORTHERN PLAINS FORECAST

The Northern Plains will be drier over the next 10 days. In addition, temperatures will be hotter. Conditions mostly favor development at this time. The drier, hotter weather may gradually reduce soil moisture and increase stress somewhat.

HOT PRAIRIES WEEKEND

In the Canadian Prairies, dry conditions with hotter temperatures are in store through the weekend. This will increase stress to developing crops, especially in areas that have a more limited reserve of soil moisture. Cooler temperatures and showers favoring eastern areas are indicated for early next week, easing concerns in these locations. The west, however, will remain drier.

MORE RUSSIA DRYNESS

In the Black Sea region, temperatures have cooled in south and east Ukraine and south Russia during this week, helping to ease stress to summer crops. However, it is still very dry. There is little relief to the dry weather pattern during the next week. However, longer range shows some hope for more shower activity and cooler temperatures, especially in eastern Ukraine but possibly in southern Russia.

SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

Northeast China will see episodes of scattered thundershowers with a variable temperature pattern during the next week. This will be mostly favorable for corn and soybeans, although hotter periods could be stressful to crops.

CENTRAL CHINA TYPHOON MONITORING

In central China, southeast areas had locally heavy rain Thursday. Other areas were dry with hot temperatures. Hot and dry conditions continue through the weekend. Next week offers scattered rainfall and an easing of hot conditions. In the longer range, we will need to monitor the progress of Super Typhoon Maria, now well east of the Philippines. The five-day forecast shows the system tracking toward Shanghai by Wednesday, July 11. Global models bring the storm into central China following that. If the forecast verifies, the remnants of Maria would likely break the dry weather pattern, but could also bring floods to central China crop areas.

INDIA MONSOON RAIN

Central India soybean areas had moderate to heavy thunderstorms Thursday. The activity may settle somewhat further south during the next few days. Longer range the activity looks to redevelop in central interior and north-central India next week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

(ES/)

Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
Connect with Bryce: