DTN Market Impact Weather

Favorable Early July Midwest Trend

Bryce Anderson
By  Bryce Anderson , DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
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OMAHA (DTN) -- Beneficial Midwest conditions for early July, and issues with either heavy rain or hot and dry conditions in Europe and the Black Sea region, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday.

SEASONAL WEEK FOR MIDWEST

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for weekend thunderstorms and seasonal temperatures early this week to ease stress to crops following hot conditions during last Friday and Saturday. A general below-normal rainfall pattern with episodes of heat during the next week to 10 days will bring some drying; however, areas with saturated soils will benefit from the drier trend. There will also be periods of seasonal temperatures and scattered showers at times.

SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS

Scattered thunderstorms occurred in the Southern Plains during the past weekend. The storms produced locally heavy rain and wheat harvest disruption in Kansas. Rain, along with a milder weather pattern early this week, will help to ease stress to summer crops. Northwest and central areas may see a few scattered showers at times this week with variable temperatures. Hotter and drier conditions are indicated later in the 10-day period, increasing stress to summer crops.

MOSTLY DRY AND HOT IN WEST TEXAS

West Texas crop areas had a few light showers with isolated heavier amounts during the weekend and early Monday. The pattern remains mainly dry or with only a few light showers with isolated heavier during the next week to 10 days. Temperatures remain near to above normal, sometimes well-above normal.

FAVORABLE IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains areas have mostly favorable weather for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat during the next 10 days. Some brief periods of hot weather may develop.

RAIN FOR PRAIRIES

Canadian Prairies crop areas will have a variable temperature pattern and episodes of showers and rain will mostly favor developing crops at this time. Rainfall appears most likely through northwest and east areas during the next seven to 10 days. Wet conditions in southeast Saskatchewan may be somewhat unfavorable; however, most other areas will benefit from rainfall. There is a chance for drier conditions to develop in southwestern areas during the next 10 days.

WET CONDITIONS HURT FRANCE WHEAT

Wheat crop projections in France are notably lower than a year ago, due to heavy rain during the spring growth and development period. Additional rain is forecast for this week.

MORE SOUTH RUSSIA HEAT

Dry and hot conditions are set to continue in south Russia and expand to include the Volga valley during the next week to 10 days. Some loss to corn and sunflower production appears likely. Drier or much drier than normal weather is also likely in eastern Ukraine but probably not as hot. Farther west, recent widespread rain and a current cool weather period will favor crops in central and west Ukraine and in Belarus.

DRIER SHORT-TERM NORTHEAST CHINA TREND

Northeast China was mainly dry during the weekend, with high temperatures in the 80s Fahrenheit. Dry, very warm weather continues today and Tuesday. Showers Wednesday and not as warm. A generally below normal rainfall pattern with mostly above normal temperatures appears to be setting up for this area. Conditions currently favor developing crops but this may change if this pattern lasts long few awhile.

VARIABLE CENTRAL CHINA CONDITIONS

In the North China Plain, northeast and central areas continue somewhat drier and hotter during this week, except possibly Wednesday when the southern part of the area may see scattered thunderstorms. Crop risk is increasing. Meanwhile, crops grown in the west and south part of the region, along with the Yangtze River valley, will continue to benefit from episodes of scattered thunderstorms and less hot weather.

BENEFICIAL INDIA MONSOON RAIN

A recent surge of monsoon rains through west-central and northwest India has provided a good boost for soil moisture and is favorable for crop development. Showers will be over west-central and north-central India early this week before settling southward and eastward again later in the week.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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Bryce Anderson

Bryce Anderson
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