DTN Market Impact Weather

OMAHA (DTN) -- Heat for early July in the Midwest, and warm to hot conditions in the Black Sea region along with the North China Plain, are the key weather items for the commodity trade's attention Thursday.

EARLY-JULY MIDWEST HEAT

The DTN ag weather forecast calls for a brief hot spell in the western Midwest, followed by scattered thunderstorms. A drying trend next week and mainly above normal temperatures should diminish soil moisture and increase stress to crops. In the eastern Midwest, not much rain is being forecast during the next week to 10 days. Temperatures turn hotter during the weekend before moderating somewhat early next week. Soils steadily dry out with increasing stress to crops, especially in areas that may not have had good rains this month.

HEAT IN STORE FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

In the Southern Plains, a hotter and drier trend is in store over the next 10 days, which will favor winter wheat harvest following last week's rain. The heat and dryness will, in turn, deplete soil moisture and increase stress to corn, soybeans and sorghum, especially pollinating corn.

CONTINUED WEST TEXAS HEAT

West Texas cotton areas have more hot and dry conditions through the next 10 days. Excessive heat is likely.

STORMS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS

Northern Plains' areas have mostly favorable weather for developing corn, soybeans and spring wheat during the next 10 days. However, thunderstorms with heavy rain, strong winds and hail, may cause local damage during Thursday and Thursday night.

MORE PRAIRIES SHOWERS

In the Canadian Prairies, a variable temperature pattern and episodes of showers will favor developing crops at this time. Rainfall appears to favor south and east locations during the five-day period, but may come a little further north after that.

SOUTH RUSSIA STAYS HOT

In the Black Sea region, west and central areas of Ukraine continue to show improvement with episodes of rain and thunderstorms and cooler weather. East Ukraine, and especially south Russia, continue hot and dry. A few showers and somewhat cooler weather may arrive later this weekend and next week, but relief from the dryness will be limited. Prospects for corn and sunflower likely continue to decline in these locations.

DRIER SHORT-TERM NORTHEAST CHINA TREND

Northeast China temperatures will turn somewhat hotter and rain chances diminish during the next three to five days, especially through south and central areas. Longer-range shower threats increase again and temperatures moderate. There are no major concerns at this time, but the hotter and drier pattern warrants attention.

NORTH CHINA PLAIN HEAT

Northeast and central areas of the North China Plain had temperatures of 93 to 103 Fahrenheit Wednesday. The thunderstorm threat has ended for now and the weather is likely to stay hot until a new rainfall system develops early next week. However, this chance does not look as good as it did earlier this week, and the overall net drying trend may continue.

MORE CENTRAL INDIA RAIN

Monsoon rain continues in the forecast for central India, and expanding northward into the Ganges Plain. Improved rains will allow for more widespread planting of Kharif (summer) crops. A possible exception to this is over Gujarat, where significant rainfall is somewhat less certain.

Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com

Follow Bryce Anderson on Twitter @BAndersonDTN

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